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This summer, the methanol industry chain showed a significant divergence between its upstream and downstream sectors. On the upstream side, affected by the US-Iran conflict and disruptions in energy supply chains, methanol prices remained high, staying firmly at the historical high of 3,000 yuan per ton (the same unit is used throughout). In the downstream sectors such as methanol to olefins (MTO), acetic acid, and formaldehyde, weak demand due to sluggish end-use consumption has led to falling prices, resulting in a significant imbalance in the supply-demand structure and price transmission mechanisms of these industrial chains. Divergence in price trends across the industry chain: Currently, there is a divergence in price trends within the methanol industry chain, with significant pressure on the downstream derivative markets. Upstream methanol prices remain high, supported by import dependence and geopolitical factors. Due to the high proportion of domestically imported methanol, and affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East as well as disruptions in international trade, supply at ports is tight, which drives up prices. According to Business Society data, on June 12, the import price of methanol in the East China region rose to 3,450 yuan, reaching a historically high level. Demand for downstream derivatives is weak, and the issue of inverted costs in the acetic acid industry is prominent. Weak demand in sectors such as apparel manufacturing and real estate has affected downstream products of methanol, including MTO, acetic acid, and formaldehyde, resulting in overall sluggish consumption. Among them, the price of acetic acid continued to decline. According to data from Jinlianchuang, the average monthly price of acetic acid in East China dropped by 26.65% in May, and by mid-June it had fallen further to around 3,000 yuan. Industry experts believe that rising prices of upstream raw materials and falling prices of downstream products create an inverse trend, leading to a normalization of situations where the costs for downstream companies exceed the prices of their products. Currently, the overall profit margins in the acetic acid industry have been significantly reduced; companies that produce acetic acid using purchased methanol are now operating at a loss, facing considerable pressure on their cash flow. This phenomenon is not an isolated case; major downstream products of methanol, such as MTO and formaldehyde, all face the dilemma of rising costs coupled with declining demand elasticity, resulting in an uneven distribution of profits within the industry chain. Mismatches between supply and demand exacerbate tensions within the industrial chain. Under normal market conditions, fluctuations in raw material costs can be transmitted along the industrial chain at various stages; however, the rise in methanol prices this time has not been effectively passed on to downstream sectors. The main reason for this is the dual constraints posed by the supply-demand balance and the structure of the industry. Firstly, the profit margins downstream are narrowing, and the ability to pass on costs is lost. In the past, the acetic acid industry enjoyed high profits, and companies were not sensitive to raw material costs. However, by 2026, the supply and demand dynamics in the acetic acid industry shifted, with prices moving closer to the cost level; meanwhile, the sharp rise in methanol prices directly eroded the profits of downstream industries. When the price of methanol rises above 3,400 yuan, acetic acid manufacturers are unable to pass on these costs by raising prices; they must bear the pressure of rising raw material costs on their own, resulting in rapid declines in their production profits. Secondly, weak demand on the consumer side creates a negative feedback loop. The downstream demand for acetic acid is mainly concentrated in areas such as purified terephthalic acid, acetates, and vinyl acetate. Due to weak export orders in the textile industry this year and the sluggish real estate sector, demand for coatings, adhesives, and similar products has declined significantly, exacerbating the oversupply situation in the acetic acid market. The combination of high raw material costs and insufficient demand for products has led to a persistent situation where raw materials are expensive while finished products are cheap. From the perspective of enterprises, the divergence in profits across the industrial chain is related to the capacity structure. Companies that possess integrated facilities for coal-based methanol production can use the profits from methanol production at the upstream stage to offset losses from downstream products, or they can adjust their production and sales structure by exporting methanol in order to generate income, thus having a stronger ability to withstand risks. In contrast, acetic acid manufacturers that do not have such integrated facilities and must purchase raw materials externally lack the support of profits from upstream activities and are also unable to pass on costs to downstream markets, making them the main group under pressure within the industry chain. According to Huatai Securities’ statistics, since 2025, the acetic acid industry has seen an addition of 5.3 million tons in production capacity, most of which consists of capacity that relies on externally purchased raw materials and thus carries a high cost risk. Industrial collaboration and structural adjustment are key to breaking the deadlock. At present, the difficulties faced by the methanol industry stem from the combined effect of cost-driven price increases and weak demand-driven declines; if this situation persists for a long time, it will affect the stable operation of the coal chemical industry. To alleviate the contradictions arising from the fragmentation of the industrial chain, coordinated improvements are needed in areas such as pricing mechanisms, industrial layout, and supply-demand regulation. First, improve pricing and risk management mechanisms to promote shared risk between upstream and downstream parties. The traditional unilateral pricing model is difficult to adapt to highly volatile market conditions. Companies along the supply chain can explore mechanisms such as price linkage and long-term contract pricing to stabilize supply and demand relationships. Downstream enterprises can use financial instruments such as futures and options to lock in raw material costs and reduce the risk of price fluctuations. Second, optimize the industrial layout to enhance integrated risk resistance. Midstream processing enterprises need to strengthen the layout of supporting elements within the industrial chain: they should expand their capabilities in sourcing raw materials upstream and develop high-value-added derivatives downstream. By adjusting profits across the entire industrial chain, they can mitigate fluctuations in any single link and build core competitive advantages. Third, rationally regulate production capacity to expand market demand. The industry needs to regulate the pace of adding new production capacity in a proper manner, in order to prevent disorderly competition from increasing market pressures. At the same time, it should take advantage of the opportunities presented by overseas supply chains to expand into international markets, thereby reducing domestic supply and demand pressures and helping the industry shift from price-based competition to high-quality development. Several industry experts have pointed out that the imbalance between the upstream and downstream sectors of the methanol industry chain reflects the weaknesses in the resilience of this chemical industry chain in the face of external shocks. To overcome the current challenges, it is necessary to rely on industrial collaboration to optimize the profit distribution mechanism. Through structural adjustments, risk management, and upgrades in layout, the overall stability of the industrial chain can be enhanced, thereby achieving balanced and coordinated development among upstream and downstream entities.