China's refining capacity will reach 900 million tons this year, becoming the world's largest crude oil processing country
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According to Bloomberg news on April 16, processing capacity will increase to 980 million tons/year by 2025, and PetroChina’s production capacity will exceed local demand by 160 million tons/year in 2025. China's largest energy producer said China's expanding refining capacity will intensify competition among global crude processors and hit their profit margins. According to a report by the Economic and Technological Research Institute, a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation, the refining capacity will reach 900 million tons this year and will rise to 980 million tons by 2025. Therefore, by 2025, production capacity will exceed local demand by at least 160 million tons per year.
The crazy construction of refineries means that China is expected to surpass the United States this year and become the world's largest crude oil processing country.* * The drive to decarbonize the economy will affect demand growth for fuels such as diesel and gasoline over the next decade. The growing imbalance between China's supply and consumption will lead to increased fuel exports. PetroChina said in the report that in the short term, as global production gradually recovers after the epidemic, global refining profit margins will come under pressure. It predicts that China's net fuel exports will surge 32% this year to 54.7 million tons. The Chinese energy giant said domestic demand for diesel, gasoline and kerosene will peak at about 376 million tons in 2025 and level off from there.
PetroChina said the processing capacity of China's independent or non-state-owned refineries will account for 29.2% of the total this year. It said a total of 34 refineries across the country will have an annual production capacity of more than 10 million tons. Here are PetroChina’s lists of new refining projects in China through 2025. Refinery Name Owner Province New Production Capacity (Year) Progress Shenghong Petrochemical Jiangsu Shenghong 16 million tons will start construction in 2021. Other private refineries, Xinhai and Kaiyi, Hebei, with a capacity of 11 million tons, will start construction in 2021. Sinopec Zhenhai Refinery, Sinopec Zhejiang, 15 million tons, will start construction in 2022, Sinopec Hainan Refinery, Sinopec Hainan, 5 million tons, will start construction in 2022. PetroChina Jieyang Refinery, PetroChina Guangdong 20 million tons, will start construction in 2022, and Yulong Island Petrochemical Complex Nanshan and Wanhua Shandong 20 million tons will start construction in 2022. The China-Kuwait joint venture refinery (Phase II), Sinopec Guangdong Company, with a capacity of 10 million tons, is under planning, and the Hengli Petrochemical Complex (Phase II), Liaoning Hengli, with a capacity of 20 million tons, is under planning. Yulong Island Petrochemical Complex (Phase II) Nanshan and Wanhua Shandong 20 million tons are planned
The expansion of oil refining capacity must be viewed from many aspects, because oil refining is not only the production of fuel oil, but also the production of chemical raw materials and chemical products. Refining is only the initial process of petrochemical industry. Subsequent triphenyltrienes can use refining as the process head. In addition, the price of crude oil has dropped in recent years, which has provided a very good opportunity for China's chemical market. In addition, as a refining process, the product direction can be flexibly adjusted to adapt to the production of fuel oil and chemicals. From the global refining and chemical market, crude oil imports are a big player, so the price of crude oil may be easier to negotiate. ； As the output of chemical products increases, the voice of the chemical market will also increase. ； In addition, the expansion of China's chemical production capacity is also very important for stabilizing the domestic and international markets. Our domestic construction cost laboratory will have less impact on foreign chemical market prices. Advantages and disadvantages are dialectically unified in most cases. In the past, the United States and Europe had the final say in the chemical market. In the future, China may also have the final say with them.
The analysis is reasonable, but the demand for crude oil from refining to chemicals will not increase much.
The oil head and tail have laid a good foundation for the development of the chemical industry. In-depth guidance can change the structural distribution of the world's resources and materials!
Challenges and opportunities in the transformation from oil refining to chemicals
Fierce competition eliminates backward production capacity and forces transformation and upgrading:)