In the first half of the year, China exported 78.7 GW of photovoltaic modules, representing a 102% increase compared to the same period last year
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Although the prices of photovoltaic modules remain relatively high compared to last year due to a mismatch in production capacity throughout the supply chain, demand for such products in overseas markets continues to grow, driven by countries and enterprises around the world accelerating their energy transition, as well as energy supply crises resulting from regional conflicts. According to InfoLink’s analysis of data from Chinese customs exports, China exported 78.7 GW of photovoltaic modules in the first half of the year, representing a 102% increase compared to the same period last year; the monthly increases were also nearly double on a year-on-year basis, indicating strong demand for Chinese photovoltaic products in overseas markets.
Europe: Europe was the market with the strongest demand for imported photovoltaic modules in the first half of 2022. To date, 42.4 GW of such modules have been imported from China, representing a 137% increase on a year-on-year basis, with this growth trend continuing month by month. Europe is already the most proactive region in the world when it comes to energy transition, and the energy shortages resulting from gas supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have accelerated this process further. To date, 7 countries have **imported a total of over 1 GW of Chinese solar modules, including major markets such as the Netherlands, Spain, and Germany. Although demand for Chinese photovoltaic products in Europe was strong in the first half of the year, according to InfoLink’s research, some of the modules exported from China to Europe are inventory that manufacturers had accumulated in advance, with no actual orders yet placed; this could therefore affect import demand in Europe in the second half of the year. Currently, the EU and some European countries have set more ambitious goals for energy transition; initiatives such as the REPowerEU Plan announced by the EU in May and Germany’s new Renewable Energy Act (EEG) have increased the targets for photovoltaic installations. Thanks to these favorable long-term policies, Europe will remain the largest market for Chinese solar panels. According to the latest demand projections from InfoLink, Europe’s annual demand for solar panels is expected to reach 55.6 GW.
Asia-Pacific: In the first half of the year, the Asia-Pacific region imported a total of 17.2 GW of Chinese solar modules, representing a 63% increase on a year-on-year basis. Compared to other regions, China’s exports to the Asia-Pacific market have been more volatile. This is mainly due to India imposing BCD tariffs of 40% and 25% on solar modules and cells respectively starting from April 1; as a result, manufacturers rushed to purchase goods before these tariffs took effect. This led to imports into India reaching 8.1 GW in the first quarter. Although imports dropped sharply in the second quarter after the tariffs were implemented, the total for the first half of the year was still 8.3 GW. The other two countries that have imported more than 1 GW of Chinese solar panels are Japan and Australia; they currently have 3.2 GW and 2.7 GW of Chinese-made panels installed respectively. InfoLink expects that, excluding China, the demand for solar modules in the Asia-Pacific region will reach 38.3 GW this year.
In the first half of the year, China exported a total of 12.1 GW worth of solar panels to the Americas market, representing a 96% increase on a year-on-year basis. Imports of Chinese solar modules into the American market are concentrated in several major demand countries other than the United States, including Brazil, which currently enjoys import tariffs exemptions for photovoltaic products. In the first half of the year, Brazil imported a total of 9.0 GW worth of modules. Brazil will start charging fees for distributed energy projects in 2023; it is expected that demand for imported photovoltaic products will remain high due to rushed installations by the end of the year. Chile, another major importer of Chinese solar modules, has so far imported 1.3 GW worth of such modules. For 2022, the expected demand in the Americas is 46.0 GW. With the exception of the United States, which continues to impose various tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic products due to trade conflicts, the rest of the American markets still rely on imports of Chinese solar panels.
Middle East and Africa: The Middle East market imported 5.5 GW of Chinese photovoltaic modules in the first half of the year, representing a 70% increase on a year-on-year basis. In the Middle East market at present, the import volume exceeding 1 GW **includes Pakistan and the UAE, with import volumes of 1.8 GW and 1.0 GW respectively. In the African region, a total of 1.6 GW worth of solar modules were imported. Although the market size there is still small compared to other regions, the year-on-year growth rate reached 41%. The estimated component demand in the Middle East and Africa for 2022 is 12.4 GW and 3.8 GW respectively.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2022, as we enter this period, the peak season for demand for photovoltaic products is about to begin. Apart from Europe, where manufacturers stocked up on components in the first half of the year to build inventory, which may lead to a slowdown in demand for imported components there, other regional markets present opportunities to further boost exports of Chinese components, allowing such exports to exceed those of the first half of the year. Although demand appears optimistic in the second half of the year, certain risks still need to be taken into account, such as ongoing increases in supply chain costs leading to caution among end-users ； Issues such as shortages of IGBT chips used in inverters and exchange rates. According to InfoLink’s overall estimates, global demand for non-Chinese components in 2022 is expected to range from 156.1 to 185.3 GW, with a growth rate of 20–42%.
As of July 31, 2022, China had won bids for a total of 88.3 GW in photovoltaic modules in the first seven months of that year. Among them, the bidding enterprises are mainly large state-owned energy companies such as Huadian, China Power Construction, and China National Nuclear Corporation ； The winning companies are mainly leading module manufacturers such as JA Solar, JinkoSolar, and LONGi ； The winning bid price shows an upward trend ； According to the specifications of the components disclosed in the bidding process, the proportion of single-sided and double-sided components is roughly equal. The predominant type of component in the market is the P-type component, with a size of 182 being the most common; the power output of these components ranges from 500w to 600w. In the first seven months of 2022, 88.3 GW worth of photovoltaic modules were awarded in tenders, resulting in an average of 12.61 GW per month. With 27.94 GW awarded in March, the volume of modules won through tenders was relatively even across the remaining months ； The average annual bidding price for components was 1.9 yuan, while the weighted average monthly bidding price was 1.89 yuan. Except for the increase in the average bidding price in March due to the winning bids for high-power components from Kuqa, Xinjiang, the overall bidding prices showed an upward trend throughout the year, reflecting the continuous rise in raw material costs that led to increasing prices for the final components.
The winning bid prices throughout the year showed an upward trend, reflecting how rising prices of raw materials have led to a continuous increase in the winning bid prices for end products.