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Increasing supply pressure; polysilicon prices declined on a volatile note in March

2023-04-02View Original

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In March, domestic polysilicon prices declined fluctuantly, with a monthly drop of 6.87% according to Business Society’s monitoring. Domestic supply prices have seen a significant drop, with the overall decline exceeding 10,000 yuan. At the end of the month, the price of single-crystal dense cells of grade 1 solar grade is in the range of 200,000–210,000 yuan per ton. On the supply side, supply conditions remained favorable; enterprise operation rates stayed at a moderate to high level. One enterprise’s facility underwent maintenance during the month, but overall enterprise shipments remained stable. Large companies are in the process of building up inventory. This month, the order volume from large companies remained roughly the same as last month; by the end of the month, the orders for April had been largely finalized by these large companies, with some of them starting to place orders for May. This month, the yield of high-quality silicon wafers at the downstream stage was low; to meet the order demands for silicon wafers, the production rate of these wafers increased, which led to a rise in the demand for silicon material. However, with silicon manufacturers operating at full capacity, companies still face considerable inventory pressure. Looking at the silicon wafers in the downstream market, prices for these wafers increased at the beginning of the month. Leading companies raised their pricing significantly for silicon wafers, primarily due to the impact of quartz crucibles on production efficiency, as well as the positive effects of expanded production capacity in the battery cell sector, factors that also contributed to an increase in silicon wafer prices. However, the market’s follow-through and sustainability are limited; the pricing of silicon wafers by small and medium-sized manufacturers remains relatively stable, mainly due to weak demand from end-users. By the end of the month, the prices of some mainstream silicon wafer models saw a slight decrease. The mainstream price of the single-crystal M10 model is 6.5 yuan per piece, with a price increase of 0.3 yuan. The mainstream price of G12 remains stable at 8.2 yuan per piece. Downstream demand remains strong, driving sales; silicon wafer manufacturers maintain a moderate level of production activity, with sales showing a slight increase. Silicon wafer prices are likely to remain strong in the short term. In terms of solar cells and modules, the price of solar cells has stabilized this month, with demand in the market remaining steady; however, as upstream silicon wafer prices rise, the profit margin for solar cells is limited. The prevailing transaction price for single-crystal M10 solar cells is around 1.08 yuan/W. The prevailing transaction price for G12 solar cells is around 1.08 yuan/W, remaining unchanged from the beginning of the month. Prices of downstream components have remained stable overall. Maintain the price level from the beginning of the month. Demand for terminal installations shows little improvement. Currently, the market is still in a struggle between upstream and downstream parties. Domestic installation demand has not yet returned to its peak levels; there is limited willingness to accept high prices, and the market remains in a state of competition between upstream and downstream parties.

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