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Recently, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has seen prices remain high due to reduced operating loads at various manufacturing facilities. Data monitored by Business Society show that on December 12, the price of ammonium sulfate in Shandong region remained stable; the mainstream price for hexamethylenetetramine-grade ammonium sulfate was between 1,150 and 1,250 yuan per ton, while the mainstream price for coking-grade ammonium sulfate was between 950 and 1,050 yuan per ton. Regarding the future market, industry experts generally believe it will enter a phase of volatile adjustment. Reduced production costs and rising prices: Si Zhenyu, a product manager at Hualu Hengsheng Fertilizer Sales Company, said that as the production capacity for ammonium sulfate generated as a by-product of processes such as caprolactam production, coke oven flue gas purification, and boiler flue gas desulfurization increases rapidly, the total production capacity is expected to exceed 28 million tons this year. Among them, hexamethylenetetramine sulfate ammonium is the main by-product of this production process, accounting for over 40% of domestic supply; it has a relatively high price due to its excellent quality. Ammonium sulfate produced from ammonia-containing exhaust gases contains more impurities; it is mainly used in agricultural production and has a relatively low price. Shi Lu, an analyst at Longzhong Information, pointed out that although ammonium sulfate is a by-product, its production capacity is substantial, enabling companies to generate significant profits – especially when their main products continue to incur losses. In October this year, the loss per ton for caprolactam products was over a thousand yuan; however, some manufacturers were able to offset these losses through the profits generated from the by-product ammonium sulfate, which helped to alleviate their operational pressures to some extent. To reverse the situation of excessive competition in the industry and ensure its sustainable and healthy development, major manufacturers of caprolactam implemented production cuts and price stabilization measures on multiple occasions in November. Data shows that on December 5, the operating rate of ammonium sulfate production facilities across the country dropped to 76.79%, a decrease of 8.72 percentage points from the beginning of November; based on an annual production capacity of 12.1 million tons for ammonium sulfate, this meant a daily production reduction of around 3,200 tons. As the measures to reduce the load on the caprolactam production facilities were put into effect, caprolactam prices rebounded rapidly, and the price of caprolactam-based ammonium sulfate also increased accordingly. As a result, companies gradually reduced their losses and saw an improvement in their profits. According to the Business Society’s commodity price analysis system, the average market price of hexamethylenetetramine sulfate on November 26 was 1,096 yuan, up 5.79% from the beginning of the month. Subsequently, major manufacturers continued to raise prices, and by December 5 the average market price had risen to 1,183 yuan, an increase of 14.19% on a month-on-month basis. Apart from hexamethylenetetramine-grade ammonium sulfate, the supply of other by-product ammonium sulfates such as coking-grade and cyanuric acid-grade is also affected by losses in profits from the main products and production restrictions, resulting in a steady decline in operating rates. Only ferric phosphate led to a slight increase in the supply of new-energy-grade ammonium sulfate due to rising market prices, but the actual room for increase is limited. Caution on the downstream side and weakening exports: Industry experts point out that, as can be seen from prices in December, despite the upward trend in ammonium sulfate prices, downstream manufacturers remain cautious in their purchasing decisions, leading to a short-term balance between supply and demand. “The main reasons for the rise in domestic ammonium sulfate prices are, on the one hand, tighter supply expectations due to factory production cuts, and on the other hand, the need of exporters to fill existing gaps in their supplies. However, the current poor feedback from the end-user market has created significant sales pressure on the domestic ammonium sulfate market, which in turn affects downstream demand for ammonium sulfate as a raw material. ”Liu Qing, an analyst at Longzhong Information, pointed out. It is worth noting that ammonium sulfate, as the only fertilizer product that is not subject to mandatory inspection, has seen a continuous increase in exports in China in recent years; currently, its share of exports exceeds half of the total production capacity. Customs statistics show that in 2024, China’s exports of ammonium sulfate exceeded 16 million tons, representing a 20% increase on a year-on-year basis and setting a new historical high, with Brazil being the largest destination for these exports; exports are set to continue growing in 2025 as well. As the main province in China for the production and export of ammonium sulfate, Fujian saw export values amounting to 3.908 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year increase of 58.79%, ranking first in the country. However, in the fourth quarter, the international market entered a period of low demand; after the price of ammonium sulfate rose domestically, there was insufficient strong demand from end-users, and transactions mainly consisted of small-scale international orders as well as purchases for essential needs in domestic industry and agriculture. Moreover, a notice issued by Mexico’s Ministry of Economy in late November indicated that a provisional anti-dumping duty of $0.1807 per kilogram was initially imposed on ammonium sulfate originating from China, a measure that has a negative impact on China’s exports of ammonium sulfate. Market fluctuations lead to a decline; regarding the future price trend of ammonium sulfate, industry experts generally believe that the market will enter a phase of fluctuating adjustments. Si Zhenyu believes that international demand is low in the fourth quarter, while domestic raw material manufacturers maintain a firm stance on pricing, resulting in a competitive situation between upstream and downstream parties. Given the continuous rise in the prices of sulfur and nitric acid, hexamethylenetetramine sulfate ammonium benefits from both cost and supply advantages; as a result, the domestic sulfate ammonium market is expected to remain in a weak and stable state in the short term. Liu Qing pointed out that the price of ammonium sulfate is influenced by various factors such as supply and demand dynamics, export demand, and the trend in urea prices. Currently, international demand at the end-user level is weak; even if domestic supply is tight, prices lacking demand support are likely to fluctuate at high levels before gradually declining. This assessment has also been confirmed by the market; recently, due to the decline in urea prices, some major ammonium sulfate manufacturers in Shandong reduced their prices by 30 yuan on December 14. An analyst at Business Society for ammonium sulfate said that the ammonium sulfate market is expected to remain stagnant and volatile in the short term. On the supply side, caprolactam production facilities are still operating at a loss, and it is possible that these companies will continue to see reductions in their losses in the future. Meanwhile, coking enterprises remain under production restrictions due to environmental regulations. On the demand side, demand for compound fertilizers, rare earths, and products used in industrial applications remains stable in China.