Review of methanol production in the first half of 2015
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This post was last edited by TH373637 on 2015-8-13 09:22. The total production of pure methanol in the first half of 2015 was 19.2366 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.38%. Product Name, Unit, Region, Cumulative Amount for This Month, Cumulative Amount for the Whole Month, Year-on-Year Growth Rate (%)Pure methanol, tons: Total – 1,923,658.44; 9.38%
Pure methanol, tons: Inner Mongolia – 339,349.89; 1.83%
Pure methanol, tons: Shandong Province – 293,995.66; -0.36%
Pure methanol, tons: Ningxia – 252,775; 474.83%
Pure methanol, tons: Shaanxi Province – 207,119.76; 7.37%
Pure methanol, tons: Henan Province – 161,443.73; 0.94%
Pure methanol, tons: Shanxi Province – 119,003.42; -7.69%
Pure methanol, tons: Chongqing Municipality – 94,330.25; 26.41%
Pure methanol, tons: Hainan Province – 66,934.3; -5.68%
Pure methanol, tons: Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region – 562,118.54; -1.16%
Pure methanol, tons: Shanghai Municipality – 495,390.12; 12.31%
Pure methanol, tons: Hebei Province – 488,328.87; 7.56%
Pure methanol, tons: Jiangsu Province – 375,895.34; 17.56%
Pure methanol, tons: Anhui Province – 334,915.41; 5.57%
Pure methanol, tons: Yunnan Province – 233,334.78; -20.86%
Pure methanol, tons: Hubei Province – 211,607; 11.3%
Pure methanol, tons: Guizhou Province – 200,129.59; 23.49%
Pure methanol, tons: Fujian Province – 154,035; -27.47%
Pure methanol, tons: Sichuan Province – 151,365.88; -64.02%
Pure methanol, tons: Heilongjiang Province – 142,350.93; -0.82%
Pure methanol, tons: Gansu Province – 107,017; -69.70%
Pure methanol, tons: Tianjin Municipality – 98,996; -22.77%
Pure methanol, tons: Qinghai Province – 79,491; -82.20%
Pure methanol, tons: Zhejiang Province – 72,044.82; 3.45%
Pure methanol, tons: Liaoning Province – 72,031; -45.98%
Pure methanol, tons: Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region – 69,774.6; -32.01%
Pure methanol, tons: Hunan Province – 263,73; -37.05%
Pure methanol, tons: Jiangxi Province – 81,70.51; 30.44%
Pure methanol, tons: Jilin Province – 36,893.25
In June 2015, the production of methanol was 3.37 million tons.
Since 2004, China’s methanol production capacity has been expanding at a rapid pace. In 2004, China’s annual methanol production capacity was 7.32 million tons; by the end of 2014, it had risen to around 65 million tons per year, with a growth rate of approximately 16%. Based on data from previous years, it is estimated that methanol production capacity will continue to increase in 2015, although the rate of growth may slow down. In 2015, China’s methanol production capacity was approximately 33.97 million tons per year ； By the end of 2014, China’s methanol production was approximately 36 million tons, with a growth rate of around 26.3%; this rate of increase in production was significantly higher than that of production capacity. Due to the rapid development of the methanol industry over the past decade, there is already a severe oversupply of methanol production capacity in certain areas. Coupled with the slowdown in China’s economic growth, traditional downstream demand for methanol has declined; it is expected that both methanol production capacity and output in China will slow down in the coming period. Over the next 3 to 5 years, domestic methanol producers and traders will need to focus on reducing overcapacity and identifying new demand sources in order to address the significant imbalance between supply and demand for methanol. Plant analysis: In the first half of 2014, new production capacity was added to methanol plants on a significant scale. It is understood that from January to July 2014, there were many new methanol production facilities added; in particular, in May and June, a large number of such facilities began operations, resulting in a significant increase in methanol production and heightened supply pressures. Meanwhile, we can see that inventory levels at the three major ports in East China, South China, and Ningbo increased rapidly during this period, reaching new highs at one point. In terms of plant maintenance, on October 26, the 300,000-ton-per-year methanol production plant in Ordos Shilin Chemical began to undergo renovation due to equipment issues; it is planned to restart the plant within December. On November 10, the 400,000-ton-per-year methanol plant in Inner Mongolia Boyuan was shut down for maintenance, with no set date for its restart. On November 29, the 600,000-ton-per-year methanol production plant in Xianyang, Shaanxi, was shut down urgently due to a malfunction; maintenance is expected to require at least 10 days. As of December 11, the 100,000-ton-per-year methanol production plant in Daqing Oilfield in the Northeast has been completely shut down, with a restart expected in March or April next year. At the same time, the author believes that the extensive shutdowns of methanol production facilities for maintenance in October and November 2014 will lead to a reduction in the supply pressure of methanol in the short term; after December, those facilities that were shut down for maintenance have begun to restart, which may increase the methanol supply pressure to some extent. Although the number of new methanol production facilities in 2015 was lower than in 2014, the supply pressure for methanol in the first half of the year remained high due to the concentrated commissioning of these new facilities in the second quarter.
Is the methanol industry a declining industry? What will be the future outlook? Will those working in the methanol industry lose their jobs?
No, methanol is an intermediate product with wide-ranging applications; its main use is to improve energy conversion efficiency
"Since 2004, China’s methanol production capacity has been expanding at a rapid pace. In 2004, China’s annual methanol production capacity was 7.32 million tons; by the end of 2014, it had risen to around 65 million tons per year, with a growth rate of approximately 16%. Based on data from previous years, it is estimated that methanol production capacity will continue to increase in 2015, although the rate of growth may slow down. In 2015, China’s methanol production capacity was approximately 33.97 million tons per year ； By the end of 2014, China’s methanol production was approximately 36 million tons, with a growth rate of around 26.3%; this rate of growth was significantly higher than that of production capacity. There are numerous errors in the text: First, according to the information provided, methanol production capacity increased from 7.32 million tons in 2004 to 65 million tons in 2014, giving a growth rate of “16%”. Upon closer calculation, the average annual growth rate over those 10 years is actually “24.4%”. Also, is this “16%” the growth rate over two years or the average annual growth rate? ； Second, there are two issues with the statement \"By the end of 2014, China’s methanol production was approximately 36 million tons, with a growth rate of around 26.3%\". First, regarding this \"26.3%\" production growth rate, it refers to the year in which it was compared with 2014, or the average annual growth rate over a certain time period. The annual average growth rate, as well as the “production growth rate” when comparing two years, are two different concepts! III. It needs to be confirmed whether, from 2014 to 2015, the production capacity indeed dropped from 65 million tons to 33.97 million tons