The festive atmosphere is strong; fluctuations in the PVC market are limited

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A strong festive atmosphere persists; fluctuations in the PVC market remain limited. September 2, 2015, China Chemical Products Network. I. Market overview: International crude oil prices dropped significantly overnight, leading to a slight decline in the spot market. This Friday, the U.S. non-farm employment data will be released, and market expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September are gradually declining. It is expected that, assuming stable crude oil prices, there will be a slight increase following the holiday period due to increased demand. II. For upstream raw materials, ethylene prices in Asia remained stable, with CFR Northeast Asia ranging from 819.5 to 821.5 USD/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia ranging from 789.5 to 791.5 USD/ton. The trend of calcium carbide in the domestic market is relatively stable with only minor fluctuations, and the trading atmosphere is not as active as before. The operation of domestic calcium carbide plants remains stable overall, and supply to downstream industries is relatively balanced. However, prices of chlor-alkali products continue to decline, so it can be expected that purchasing costs will drop as well. The receiving price of calcium carbide has declined slightly in some areas. III. Corporate Updates: Prices of PVC produced via the calcium carbide method in China remain stable. Some companies in North China have suspended production to coordinate with the military parade, so no price changes have taken place. Currently, the mainstream ex-factory price for type 5 ordinary calcium carbide in the areas surrounding Inner Mongolia is 5,050–5,200 yuan per ton ； The mainstream acceptance price in Shandong region is 5,350–5,450 yuan per ton at the factory exit ； The mainstream ex-factory price in Hebei region is 5,150–5,350 yuan per ton on credit ； In the Shanxi region, the standard ex-plant price is 5,300–5,400 yuan per ton, payable upon acceptance. Quotations from PVC manufacturers using the ethylene process remain stable for now; companies are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and prices have not been adjusted as of September. Currently, the ex-plant price in the North China region is between 5,450–5,650 yuan per ton for products from Qilu Petrochemical, Tianjin Dagu, and LG Dagu. In the East China region, the prevailing prices range from 5,750–5,900 yuan per ton, with discounts available for large orders. For Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, the price for September is 800 US dollars per ton CFR the main ports in China. IV. Market Trends: Domestic PVC market price table. Unit: yuan/ton. Product models: East China price changes, South China price changes, North China price changes. Calcium carbide-based material SG-55: 30,000–53,800; 5,300–5,360–20; 51,800–53,200. Ethylene-based material: 10,000; 57,000–58,000; 56,800–57,800; 54,800–55,600. The prevailing price in the East China PVC market is 5,300–5,380. Changzhou Beiyuan: 5350; Inner Mongolia Yihua and Shengxiong: 5300. Shanghai Tianneng Type 5: 5320, Type 8: 5570. Hangzhou Zhongtai 5350, Sanlian 5320 for pick-up; E’erong, Junzheng, Beiyuan 5340; Tianchen Type 5 5350, Type 8 5580. Ethylene material: 5700-5800. In the North China PVC market, at Qilu Chemical Industry City, the price for Qilu S700 is 5680; the price for 1000 units is 5580, with pickup available. Calcium carbide material of 5250-5300 to be delivered. Delivered to Linyi area from 5280-5350. Delivered to Hebei 5180-5250. Pickup available at warehouse 5230-5280 in Tianjin area; for various models in Tianjin’s Dagu and LG locations, pickup is available at 5480-5650. The mainstream PVC grades in South China are Type 5 at 5300–5360, Sanyuan at 5300, Dongfang Hope and Yanhu at 5320, Dongxing and Ordos at 5330, Neiyi and Shengxiong at 5330, Junzheng’s new factory and Xinfafa at 5350, Tianchen and Tianneng at 5370, Beiyuan and Zhongtai at 5360. Dagu 1000, 700, 800 are priced at 5680, while the 1300 model is priced at 5800. V. Due to the instability in emerging market economies and slower economic growth than expected in developed economies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is prepared to lower its forecasts for global economic growth next month. With severe fluctuations in crude oil prices, PVC on the plastics exchange showed modest performance; various key contracts experienced slight price increases. By the end of trading, the September delivery price for PVC produced by the calcium carbide method in South China was 5386, up by 36 ； East China: 5,350, up 30. The ethylene method closed at 5,700, down 10. The mainstream fluctuations in the fundamentals market remain modest; there is a strong festive atmosphere in the market, and sellers are not inclined to sell their goods. Some offer slight discounts to facilitate sales, but overall there is little change, with sellers waiting for the situation after the festival. It is expected that PVC on the Plastic Exchange will remain in a pattern of narrow-range fluctuations for now. VI. Market outlook: Today, the PVC market remains stable overall, with slight declines in some cases. Demand from downstream industries remains moderate; purchases are mostly made as needed, resulting in limited actual trading volume. At the same time, traders remain highly cautious about making shipments, holding a bearish outlook for the future market. Given that the stalemate in the market is unlikely to change in the short term, it is expected that the outlook for PVC in the near future will not be optimistic.