【The “Post-Oil Era” May Arrive Late】

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Under the severe impact of low oil prices, in order to survive and develop, countries will surely place greater emphasis on improving their technological levels and promoting the application of new technologies that can help them adapt to these conditions. This will significantly reduce the costs of oil, gas, and energy, improve efficiency, and drive a revolution in both energy production and consumption. It seems that fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy until around 2050, accounting for no less than 50% of the total primary energy supply. In the latest energy composition projections prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), oil and natural gas will account for almost equal shares in the world’s energy supply in 2020, each making up around 30% ； By 2035, the curves for these two will again be close to intersecting with the curve representing the share of coal, and the three together will account for about 85%. During this period, the share of oil declined significantly, coal rose slowly, while natural gas showed fluctuations. It is worth noting that there is no necessity for the so-called \"natural gas era,\" in which natural gas takes the lead and far exceeds other energy sources; likewise, the arrival of a \"post-petroleum era\" characterized by new energy sources and complementary use of multiple energy types (whereby \"petroleum\" refers to BOTH OIL and GAS) will also be delayed. Recent practices have shown that cheap and abundant coal can be used in a clean manner, especially in large-scale coal-fired power generation and the long-distance transportation of coal electricity, allowing for both environmental sustainability and high efficiency at low costs. This further illustrates that there is not just one approach to optimizing the energy mix; as long as it is environmentally friendly, low-cost, and efficient, various approaches can be adopted according to local conditions and circumstances. The impact of the oil depletion theory led to the belief that supplies of non-renewable fossil fuels were in short supply; coupled with environmental pressures, there was a rush to make new energy sources the primary source of energy worldwide within a short period of time (such as by 2030). To achieve this, substantial subsidies were provided to producers even when such energy sources lacked market competitiveness – subsidies that ultimately had to be borne by other sectors of the economy and consumers. In retrospect, there was insufficient awareness of the high level of technology required to drive the development of new energy sources and bring them to maturity, as well as an inadequate understanding of the many issues related to their integration with other forms of energy and with economic and social life, along with the economic and financial conditions necessary for their development. As a result, large amounts of subsidies were not invested in research that could lay the foundation for its development, nor in pilot projects that would enable gradual scaling up from the laboratory to large-scale application. Instead, there was an eagerness to see quick results, and the funds were used directly on product production and sales, which sometimes backfired and yielded half the expected results. It has turned out that the key to developing new energy sources is to give them enough time to develop steadily by relying more on technological progress, thereby making them cheaper, more energy-efficient, and more environmentally friendly. In this way, new energy sources are no longer \"garden flowers\" nurtured by substantial subsidies, but rather rely on their market competitiveness to expand their market share and proportion in the energy mix. Forcing production in violation of this market law will inevitably lead to detours. From this perspective, the shale revolution and low oil prices have not hindered the development of new energy sources; rather, they have enabled them to mature more steadily and healthily. Faced with the impacts of low oil prices on various interest groups, as well as the changes in the structure of the global oil and gas market, it is ultimately the market that determines the allocation of resources.