Total methanol demand is set to increase in 2016; be cautious of fluctuations caused by olefins

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Total methanol demand is set to increase in 2016; be cautious of fluctuations caused by olefins. http://www.chemcp.com January 22, 2016, China Chemical Products Network. I. Analysis of methanol production capacity: 1. A. Domestic: Table showing methanol production capacity over the past three years, along with the growth rate in production capacity. http://i5.hexunimg.cn/2016-01-22/181958622.png B. Overseas: Comparison of methanol imports over the past three years. In 2015, China’s methanol production capacity was 69.76 million tons, representing a 1.68% increase compared to the same period earlier； Production is around 39.3 million tons, an increase of 6.92% ； Imports amounted to 5.45 million tons, representing a growth of 25.81%, with total apparent consumption for the year reaching 44.75 million tons. 　　2, A: The increase in new domestic production capacity over the next two years. 　　Statistics on new/expanded methanol production facilities in China in 2016: http://i9.hexunimg.cn/2016-01-22/181958624.png. According to incomplete estimates, the methanol industry in China will see an additional 7.85 million tons of production capacity added in 2016, bringing China’s annual methanol production capacity above 75 million tons. Of these new projects, about 7.2 million tons are in the Northwest region, accounting for 91.72% of the total ； 300,000 tons in North China, accounting for 3.82% ； 200,000 tons in the East China region, and 150,000 tons in the Shandong region. B. New international methanol production capacity in the next two years Table of major new methanol production facilities worldwide: http://i6.hexunimg.cn/2016-01-22/181958625.png The international methanol market remains in a state of constant change; due to the low cost of natural gas abroad, methanol production capacity in the Middle East and the Americas is set to continue increasing. It is estimated that around 3 million tons of additional production capacity will be added by 2016. 　　II. Analysis of downstream demand for methanol 1. Table comparing downstream demand for methanol over the past two years, showing changes in demand: In 2015, China’s actual demand for methanol was around 44.75 million tons, representing an increase of about 12% compared to the previous year, although the growth rate slowed down. Among these, methanol-based olefins/aromatics have become the largest end-use sector for methanol in China; it consumes around 16 million tons of methanol during the year, accounting for approximately 39% of the total methanol consumption. Methanol fuel consumes around 6.5 million tons of methanol per year, representing about 15% of total methanol consumption. The annual growth rate for both of these sectors is above 18%. In the traditional downstream sector, demand for substances such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and DMF is showing a downward trend, with annual growth rates declining by varying amounts ranging from 7% to 20%. 　　2. List of future domestic projects for producing olefins from coal via methanol (unit: 10,000 tons) http://i6.hexunimg.cn/2016-01-22/181958627.png In 2016, 2.43 million tons of olefins will come online in China; these amounts are as follows: 600,000 tons from Mengda, 330,000 tons from Changzhou Fude, 600,000 tons from Inner Mongolia Jiu Tai, 300,000 tons from Qinghai Salt Lake, and 600,000 tons from Jiangsu Shenghong. By the end of the year, domestic demand will increase by more than 7 million tons. 　　3. Statistics on new MTBE production capacity in China in 2016: http://i6.hexunimg.cn/2016-01-22/181958628.png. The new MTBE production capacity was 1.715 million tons, resulting in an increase in demand of over 500,000 tons. 　　Third, an overview of the fundamental factors in 2016: In 2016, it is expected that China’s total demand for methanol will be close to 50 million tons. Of this amount, the demand for methanol used in the production of olefins is expected to account for over 40%, thus holding the top position. Traditional downstream demands are expected to remain relatively stable. Given that crude oil prices are not likely to see significant improvements, it is necessary to be cautious regarding the fluctuations in methanol demand caused by changes in olefin production levels. Careful consideration and prudence are required as we move forward. http://www.chemcp.com/news/201601/661883.asp