March 4, 2016: There is a high likelihood of severe volatility in the market today!

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This post was last edited by Thank goodness you're here on 2016-3-4 at 11:13. On March 3, the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference met in Beijing. 　　Looking at the performance of the stock market over the past 10 years, there were only 3 years in which it rose, namely 2007, 2009, and 2011. It seems to drop every time there is a meeting. In these past 3 years, perhaps it is because the adjustment periods in the Chinese stock market are too long; as a result, statistically, whenever major events occur, the probability of the A-share market falling is higher than that of it rising. In 2016, it might follow a path of low-probability events – because we had already lost nearly 30% in January and February, and the stock market was in a state of severe oversold conditions. Adding to the stock market crash over those 7 months last year, **the team** found itself trapped in a difficult situation; China’s economy faced downward pressure. After the Spring Festival, the government introduced one favorable policy after another. Technically, the bulls managed to hold the 2638 level twice, which greatly increases the likelihood of a double bottom and also gives people some idea of what the market trend might be. Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,849 points, up 4.26%, ending on a strong green candle with high trading volume. Yesterday, 5 stocks hit the daily price limit down, 16 stocks saw declines of over 5%, while 54 stocks reached the daily price limit up. Severe volatility is expected during trading on Friday as well; after opening slightly lower, the GEM index may find support at the 5-day moving average and then rebound back toward the 10-day moving average. It is likely that the index will fluctuate between these two moving averages throughout the day. After fluctuating around the 30-day moving average, the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to try again to reach the 2910–2920 resistance level; however, there is a high probability of it facing rejection and falling back, with prices likely to remain in a range of fluctuations.