Analysis and Forecast of Calcium Carbide Price Trends as of April 8, 2016

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Analysis and forecast of calcium carbide price trends, April 8, 2016. China Chemical Products Network. This week, the domestic price of calcium carbide remained stable but showed an upward trend; at the beginning of the week, the ex-plant prices offered by major manufacturers were 2,138 yuan per ton, while by the end of the week they rose to 2,143 yuan per ton, representing a 0.23% increase on a weekly basis. Compared with the same period last year, however, the price dropped by 12.69%. As of April 7, the calcium carbide commodity index was 56.15, up 0.13 points from the previous day. It was 44.58% lower than the peak level of 101.31 points (reached on September 26, 2011), and 1.19% higher than the lowest level of 55.49 points recorded on March 14, 2016. (Note: The period refers to from 2011-09-01 to the present.) Market Analysis: This week, the calcium carbide market has shown relatively stable prices with slight fluctuations; trading activity has picked up again. Due to imbalances between supply and demand, price changes have been minimal. In Shaanxi, the ex-factory prices offered by major manufacturers are around 2000–2100 yuan per ton, in Inner Mongolia they are around 2050–2150 yuan per ton, and in Ningxia they are around 2100–2200 yuan per ton. Actual transaction prices are more flexible, and the supply of calcium carbide in various regions is satisfactory ； 　　Industry chain: The market price of coke, a related upstream product, saw a slight increase. At the beginning of the week, the average market price among major producers was 672 yuan per ton, while by the end of the week it rose to 673 yuan per ton, representing a 0.19% increase on a weekly basis and a 23.33% decrease on an annual basis. Driven by the recovery in the downstream steel market and the relatively low operating rates of coke manufacturers, there is once again a trend of upward movement in the domestic markets for coke and coking coal. It is expected that the coke market will remain stable with a slightly positive trend in the short term, supported by rising costs for calcium carbide ； 　　 This week, the market price of PVC, a downstream product, continued to decline. At the beginning of the week, the average pricing offered by major manufacturers was 5,333 yuan per ton, while by the end of the week it had dropped to 5,268 yuan per ton, representing a decrease of 0.87% on a weekly basis and 6.23% on an annual basis. Trading activity was moderate; it was difficult to sell products at high prices, and there was a strong tendency for wait-and-see behavior in the market. As a result, prices dropped slightly. It is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate within a narrow range in the coming period ； The market for trichloroethylene is operating at a weak and stable level. The average price quoted by major manufacturers is 4,880 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.61% compared to the previous year. In Inner Mongolia, the ex-factory price of trichloroethylene ranges from 4,400 to 5,400 yuan per ton; in Ningxia it’s around 4,600 to 5,400 yuan per ton, while in Shandong it’s approximately 4,800 yuan per ton. It is expected that the market will remain in a state of weak consolidation in the coming period ； 　　Industry: Affected by high prices of upstream and downstream products, the downward trend in the calcium carbide market has temporarily halted. There are strong calls from companies to raise prices; supply is tight in some areas, and some companies have adjusted the prices of calcium carbide. However, overall price levels remain largely unchanged. Companies are suffering heavy losses, and actual transaction volumes are low. With the reduction in electricity prices, the cost pressures on calcium carbide manufacturers have eased. However, downstream PVC manufacturers have an ample supply of goods, which continues to put pressure on the price of calcium carbide; as a result, there are significant obstacles to an upward trend in the calcium carbide market. 　　Market forecast: Currently, with the increase in the operating rate of calcium carbide manufacturers and the approaching maintenance periods for some PVC producers downstream, there is upward pressure on calcium carbide prices. However, driven by the overall positive trends in the market, analysts at Business Society believe that calcium carbide prices will see a slight increase next week, amounting to 50 yuan per ton.