The olefin industry is about to enter a new era of diversified development in terms of raw materials and processes

Thread Content

It is reported that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China’s annual average demand for olefins will decline from around 6% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period to 3.5%–4%. Against the backdrop of intensifying international competition, the olefin industry is on the verge of entering a new era characterized by diversified raw materials and production processes. This is the consensus reached by industry experts at the 2016 China (International) Olefins Conference, which opened in Ningbo recently. The olefin industry: entering a new era of diversified raw materials and production processes. Bai Yi, deputy director of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute, noted that although the growth rate of olefins will decline during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the absolute amount of growth will remain significant due to the large market base. It is estimated that by 2020, the domestic demand for ethylene and propylene equivalents will reach 48 million tons and 38 million tons respectively. At the same time, given the competitive landscape in the international olefin industry, the pace of capacity expansion will also slow down. “With the continued expansion of olefin production capacity, there will surely be a competitive landscape characterized by diversity in raw materials and technological approaches. ”Wang Yuqing, a member of the Petrochemical Subcommittee of the Chinese Chemical Society, noted that \"it is foreseeable that although the production of low-carbon olefins will in the future still rely mainly on the steam cracking of naphtha to produce ethylene, it is necessary to take into account the characteristics of domestic resources and appropriately promote alternative feedstock methods such as propane dehydrogenation and olefin production through coal chemical processes (MTO/MTP) as supplements. At the same time, close attention should be paid to the development of processes for producing olefins from biomass.\" ”This view was widely agreed upon by the experts present. According to available data, by the end of 2015, China had a total of 19 coal/methanol-based olefin production units, with a combined capacity of 7.7 million tons ； There are a total of 8 propane dehydrogenation units, with a combined production capacity of 3.95 million tons; these units account for 17.2% and 8.8% of China’s total olefin production capacity respectively. The trend toward diversification of raw materials used in olefin production in China, along with the coexistence of three different production processes, is becoming increasingly evident. The development of non-petroleum-based olefins cannot be ignored. Bai Yi said that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, naphtha steam cracking technology will still play a dominant role in olefin production, but its raw material structure should be optimized to improve the level of integrated utilization of the facilities. It is necessary to actively develop overseas sources of lightweight ethylene feedstocks; at the same time, it is recommended to phase out outdated production capacity for ethylene production via steam cracking with a capacity of less than 300,000 tons per year. “The biggest challenge for ethylene producers that use naphtha as their raw material is the cost of raw materials, as there are many variables associated with ensuring a stable supply of olefin raw materials. ”Hua Wei, a leading expert in petrochemical production technologies at Sinopec, pointed out that in current steam cracking processes, the cost of raw materials accounts for 75% to 85% of the total cost; therefore, the key to enhancing the competitiveness of the ethylene industry is to reduce the cost of raw materials. There are mainly two approaches: one is to appropriately increase the proportion of lightweight raw materials; during the construction of new facilities and the renovation of existing ones, it is necessary to consider, from a design perspective, enhancing the flexibility of the facilities in adapting to different raw materials, in order to reduce production bottlenecks caused by changes in raw materials. Second, actively explore new markets, source high-quality raw materials, and optimize the allocation of resources. Coal-to-olefins is a distinctive technological route developed in China. Liu Zhongmin, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and deputy director of the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out that coal-to-olefins technology has been tested in commercial plants, and it can be said to have withstood the challenges posed by low oil prices to a certain extent. However, he also reminded companies that, given the current low oil prices, coal chemical enterprises should pay more attention to the development of new technologies.