Summary Post on the Methanol Market Conditions and Prices in June 2016

Methanol prices as of June 1, 2016: http://www.chemcp.com. As of June 1, 2016, according to China Chemical Products Network: Company/Region Name, Product Type, Price, Notes. Cangzhou China Railway Coking – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1820, ex-plant price; Anhui Linhuan Coking – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1880, payable upon delivery; Shaanxi Heimaocat Coking – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1700; Henan Hebi Coal and Electricity – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 0; Hebei Shijiazhuang Jinshi – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 0; Hebei Tangshan Wanfengxing Chemical – Methanol, price: -1850, external sales price; Tangshan Guyu Coal Coking – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1850, cash price; Hebei Tangshan Zhongrun – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1850, widely accepted in the local area; Shandong Xinneng Phoenix – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1910, stable supply; Dalian Dahuahua – Methanol, price: -1950, for local sales only; Heilongjiang Jianlong Steel – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1900, ex-plant price; Chongqing Wansheng – Methanol, price: -1800, not available for external sales at present; Shandong Yankuang Group – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1860, normal supply; Shanxi Jinfeng – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1750, payable upon delivery; Sichuan Chuanwei – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 2000; Shandong Tengzhou Shenglong – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1860, ex-plant price; Shandong Linyi Hengchang – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1910, normal supply; Shandong Linyi Lan Yue Chemical – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1900, external sales price; Sichuan Dazhou Steel – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 0; Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1730; Anhui Linquan – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1900, payable upon delivery; Shanxi Yangmei Fengxi – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1700, satisfactory supply; Shaanxi Changqing Energy – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1750, ex-plant price; Heilongjiang Yidaxin – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1900; Heilongjiang Qitaihe Jiwei – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1900; Shanxi Coking – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1700; Hunan Yihua – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 2100, stable supply; Shanxi Datuhe Coking – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1700; Jiangsu Yizhou Coal Coking – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1900; Hubei Sanning – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1900, some products for internal use; Shandong Mingshui Dahuahua – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1860, cash price; Daqing Oilfield – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 2300, ex-plant price; Hebei Zhengyuan Chemical – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1840, payable upon delivery; Shandong Union – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1840, cash price; Heilongjiang China National Coal Group Longhua – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 2450; Hebei Dingzhou Tianlu New Energy – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1800; Henan Xinlianxin – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1900; Heilongjiang Baotailong Coal Methanol – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 2450; Shanxi Anze Yongxin – Industrial-grade methanol, price: 1720. Keywords: Methanol, Price Database

Methanol: Wait for an opportunity to go short as a rebound occurs. http://www.chemcp.com June 1, 2016, China Chemical Products Network. Last week, methanol futures once again reached the M-head-and-shoulders level, suggesting a high likelihood of a technical rebound. However, given the increasing speculation surrounding potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, along with the fact that the supply and demand situation for methanol has not improved, a substantial rebound is unlikely. It would be better to wait for an opportunity to take short positions in the future. 　　Macroeconomic factors will determine the future trend. In May, as methanol prices dropped significantly, the previous irrational price increases have been largely reversed. With few positive developments on the fundamental front, macroeconomic factors are likely to determine the future trend of methanol prices. Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Yellen said in a speech that if U.S. economic data improves, the U.S. will raise interest rates in the coming months. 　　The author believes that the U.S. interest rate hikes should be analyzed from two perspectives: on one hand, the U.S. labor market is performing well, and inflation data is currently the main focus; given the continuous rise in commodity prices, there is a high likelihood of an increase in inflation levels ； On the other hand, the global economy remains fragile at present; rash interest rate hikes would have a disproportionate impact on the market, which is not in the United States’ interests. Therefore, the probability of a U.S. interest rate hike in June is extremely low. However, although the likelihood of interest rate hikes in the United States in the short term is low, the U.S. dollar index is rising sharply and this trend is likely to continue; as a result, the trend for methanol prices is expected to remain weak in the coming period. 　　Import volumes are likely to rise again. From December last year to April this year, the increase in domestic methanol prices exceeded that of international methanol prices. As a result, the cost of imported methanol remained relatively low, and import volumes continued to reach record highs. Data shows that from January to April, China imported a total of 2.429 million tons of methanol, an increase of 705,000 tons compared with the same period last year. In April, China imported a total of 724,000 tons of methanol, setting a new record and representing an increase of 212,000 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to April, the average monthly import volume of methanol was 607,000 tons, compared with an average annual import volume of only 462,000 tons last year. 　　Based on the data we’ve observed, due to a significant drop in domestic methanol prices, imported methanol no longer holds a price advantage in May. Therefore, it is quite likely that domestic imports of methanol will decline. However, looking ahead, influenced by supply and demand, crude oil is likely to decline in price. In the future, the cost of methanol produced from natural gas will further drop, and the price advantage of imported methanol will become evident once again; as a result, import volumes are expected to increase, thereby pushing down domestic methanol prices. 　　The supply and demand structure remains weak. Since both macroeconomic factors and imports are unfavorable for methanol, what is the situation regarding its supply and demand? 　　On one hand, from a supply perspective, facilities that were shut down for maintenance earlier have recently resumed operations one after another (mainly in the Northwest region and Shandong Province). This has not only led to an increase in methanol supply, but also alleviated the sharp rise in methanol prices in the Northwest region caused by prior localized supply shortages. In the future, as methanol prices in the northwest region decline, the amount of supply from that region flowing into East China will increase. 　　On the other hand, from the demand side, methanol-to-olefins plants in the northwest region have started maintenance work, resulting in a decrease in the amount of methanol purchased from outside. Although the price of crude oil has risen, the actual demand for MTBE has not improved significantly, and most other downstream markets have also seen no improvement. 　　Looking ahead, as crude oil prices decline, the price advantage of imported methanol is expected to become apparent, leading to an increase in methanol imports. Furthermore, the supply and demand structure for methanol in the domestic market remains weak, making it difficult to support prices. For these reasons, the trend of methanol in the coming period is likely to be weak, and it is advisable to take short positions when prices are high.

Methanol closed higher in volatile trading; short-term range-bound fluctuations http://www.chemcp.com June 1, 2016 China Chemical Products Network. Yesterday, the main contract for methanol futures closed higher amid volatile trading. Shanxi: 1,650–1,720 yuan/ton ； Hebei: 1,710–1,800 yuan/ton ； Shandong: 1,800–1,860 yuan/ton ； The upward trend in methanol prices in the Henan market continues, with increases of around 20-30 yuan per ton. Shandong 1840-1860 ； Inner Mongolia: 1,650–1,680 yuan/ton ； Heilongjiang: 1,850–1,900 yuan/ton ； Taicang: 1,885–1,890 yuan/ton for self-pickup; Hubei: 1,940–1,950 yuan/ton ； Hunan: 2,000–2,010 yuan per ton. Data released by the European Commission on Monday (May 30) showed that the economic sentiment index in the eurozone rose again in May, as did the consumer confidence index. This indicates that despite the political uncertainties in Europe recently, consumer confidence in the eurozone remained relatively stable in May, suggesting that a moderate economic recovery will continue in the coming months. According to the website of the National Development and Reform Commission, based on monthly statistical data, from January to April, China’s railways handled 1.05 billion tons of freight, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%. This decline was 1.1 percentage points smaller than that recorded from January to March. Meanwhile, the total volume of freight transported amounted to 747.3 billion ton-kilometers, down 8.3% year-on-year; this figure also showed a 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of decline compared to the January-March period. The data also show that in April, the national railways handled 260 million tons of freight, a 4.5% decline year-on-year, while the volume of freight transported was 185.9 billion ton-kilometers, representing a 5.2% drop on a year-on-year basis. In Shandong and the Hunan-Hubei regions, the traditional downstream formaldehyde industry is in off-season; there are frequent MTBE maintenance activities, and the production of dimethyl ether is low ； The shipping schedules for goods arriving at ports remain steady, and the continued inflow of methanol from abroad has had a certain impact on the market. The trend of methanol futures is highly volatile, and traders are uneasy ； The rebound in international crude oil prices is a positive sign for the domestic market. Although the methanol market situation has improved recently, the oversupply situation in China has not fundamentally changed. In the short term, methanol futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range.

The price level of methanol at ports remained stable with a slight increase; the trading atmosphere was decent. http://www.chemcp.com June 1, 2016, China Chemical Products Network. Yesterday, the price level of methanol at ports stayed stable or saw a slight rise, and the trading atmosphere was satisfactory. In the domestic market, prices continued to rise on a regional basis; prices in the Guanzhong region increased again, by 110 yuan per ton. In Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and Shanxi, prices rose by a modest amount of 10–30 yuan per ton. Some downstream users adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The spot price range was 1570–1935 yuan per ton, while the lowest spot price at delivery warehouses increased by 20 yuan to 1935 yuan per ton (taking into account premiums and discounts). The discount between MA609 and spot prices widened to 28 yuan per ton. On a fundamental level, from the supply side, plant maintenance by enterprises in Henan and shutdowns of plants in the Guanzhong region of the northwest led to a decline in overall production capacity ； On the demand side, demand for emerging olefins is weak due to poor profits in MTO operations and maintenance work at olefin plants; however, traditional demand has shown some improvement, with the operation rate of formaldehyde remaining stable last week, while the operation rates of dimethyl ether and acetic acid have increased slightly ； On the import side, although the arbitrage window between China and the US has almost closed, shipping schedules indicate that there will still be pressure from a concentration of imported goods arriving in the near term. Therefore, overall, the fundamentals of methanol have improved due to maintenance activities at upstream plants and traditional downstream restocking activities; as a result, futures prices may see a short-term rebound. However, given the weak demand for olefins and ongoing pressure at ports, we remain cautious regarding the extent of this price rebound.

Analysis and forecast of domestic methanol price trends on June 1 http://www.chemcp.com June 1, 2016, China Chemical Products Network: The domestic spot market is on the rise. In northern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, prices remain relatively stable; the current mainstream price is 1,640–1,710 yuan per ton ； In the Bohai Sea region, the price in Shanxi increased by 30 yuan per ton, reaching 1680–1760 yuan per ton; in Hebei, it rose by 20 yuan per ton, with prices ranging from 1730 to 1800 yuan per ton ； In the Huaihai region, northern Jiangsu sees a price increase of 20 yuan per ton, bringing the price to 1900–1910 yuan per ton ； Futures prices are rising, and port prices are recovering; prices in East China have increased by 10 yuan per ton, ranging from 1880 to 1970 yuan per ton, while prices in South China have risen by 20 yuan per ton, ranging from 1930 to 1950 yuan per ton. Prices in other regions remain stable for now. For most manufacturers in the Northwest, new prices remain stable; in the Guanzhong region of Shaanxi, prices continue to rise ； Trading in the Bohai Rim region is fairly steady; prices in Shanxi and Hebei have seen a slight increase, while those in northern Shandong remain stable for now ； Traffic in the Huaihai region is fairly decent, with a slight rebound in northern Jiangsu ； Shipments in Central China are currently feasible, with slight price increases in some areas ； Futures prices rose, with ports seeing modest gains; ports in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in East China saw slight increases, while ports in South China moved upward in a sideways trend. Recently, due to increased orders from downstream industries and in the trade sector, as well as maintenance activities at some methanol manufacturers, the reduction in external purchases of olefins has offset these negative factors to some extent; overall, the market is in a state of supply-demand balance. However, there is currently no shortage of supply in most downstream areas; purchases are made as needed. The market mainly adheres to previous contracts, with limited new orders being placed. Recently, the port area has seen smooth shipments due to concentrated replenishment downstream; although a large volume of goods has arrived, actual inventory buildup remains limited. Rising futures prices have boosted market confidence, leading to an overall recovery. Currently, market participants hold divergent views on the future market trend; thus, it is advised that they proceed with caution. Under the influence of multiple factors, the domestic methanol market is likely to experience narrow fluctuations in the near term, with trends that are localized or regional in nature.

Analysis of methanol price trends as of June 1, 2016: http://www.chemcp.com. As of June 1, 2016, according to China Chemical Products Network, the average ex-factory price for methanol produced by enterprises in central and eastern Shandong is around 1860–1880 yuan per ton, while traders in Zibo and its surrounding areas typically sell methanol at around 1900–1920 yuan per ton. The sales performance of these enterprises remains satisfactory. The mainstream retail prices for enterprises in southern Shandong have risen by 20 yuan per ton, reaching 1870–1880 yuan per ton. In the Linyi area, the price without invoice is around 1880–1900 yuan per ton. The price at ports in Guangxi is around 2,050 yuan per ton. The mainstream price of methanol is around 2,100 yuan per ton. The dynamic methanol market is showing weak consolidation. In the southwest region, Sichuan and Chongqing, the ex-factory price is 1,850–2,000 yuan per ton; the standard selling price is 1,760–1,780 yuan per ton, while the price at point of delivery is around 1,850–1,880 yuan per ton. The dynamic methanol market remains stable, with contracts being the main form of transactions, and demand is somewhat weak. In the Northeast region, the price in Heilongjiang is around 1,800–1,850 yuan per ton, while in Liaoning it is approximately 1,930–1,980 yuan per ton. The methanol market remains stable. The southern and southeastern parts of Shanxi region are at 1,690–1,760 yuan/ton; the Jincheng plant operates stably, with quoted prices of 1,750 yuan/ton ； The shipping price in Linfen is around 1,690–1,720 yuan per ton ； The shipping price in Changzhi is 1,740–1,760 yuan per ton ； Trading in the dynamic market is fair. In Hubei region, the prevailing price range is 1,900–2,040 yuan per ton. The lower end of this range represents the ex-factory prices quoted by major manufacturers, while the upper end reflects quotes provided by traders in Wuhan ； In the Hunan region, the mainstream price is around 2,060–2,100 yuan per ton; lower prices are offered by traders in Changsha, while higher prices correspond to the factory prices set by major manufacturers. The methanol market in the Two Lakes region remains stable. In Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, prices stand at 1,640–1,710 yuan per ton; the lower end of this range applies to cash transactions, while the higher end pertains to transactions via acceptance bills. North Shaanxi: 1,680–1,710 yuan/ton ； Shaanxi: 1,640–1,710 yuan/ton ； Inner Mongolia: 1,680–1,700 yuan/ton ； In the southern part of Inner Mongolia, the price is 1,650–1,660 yuan per ton, with supply mainly directed to local and nearby olefin manufacturers. In the dynamic sector, corporate inventories are at low levels, coupled with the shutdown for maintenance of some methanol plants. In Gansu region, the price is 1,630 yuan per ton. The methanol production facilities of the key companies in this area are operating normally, with supply contracts being the main form of arrangement.

Analysis and forecast of domestic methanol price trends on June 2 http://www.chemcp.com June 2, 2016, China Chemical Products Network: The domestic spot market showed mixed trends with some increases and some decreases. In northern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, the new price has increased by 30–50 yuan per ton; currently, the mainstream price in the northwest is 1640–1710 yuan per ton ； In the Bohai Sea region, Hebei’s price increased by 20 yuan per ton, reaching 1760–1820 yuan per ton ； In the Huaihai region, the price in southern Shandong increased by 20 yuan per ton, reaching 1870–1880 yuan per ton ； Futures prices declined; port prices also fell. In East China, prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton to range between 1,870 and 1,960 yuan/ton. In South China, prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton to between 1,920 and 1,940 yuan/ton. Prices in other regions remained stable for the time being. 　　According to reports, manufacturers in northern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have raised prices again, with the increase being more significant in Inner Mongolia ； Trading in the Bohai Rim region is fairly steady, with slight increases in some areas of Hebei and Shanxi ； Traffic in the Huaihai region is fairly decent, while the situation in southern Shandong continues to improve ； Shipments in central China are currently feasible; prices have risen slightly in some areas of Henan, while they remain stable elsewhere for now ； Futures declined, and ports saw slight drops; ports in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in East China experienced modest declines, while ports in South China showed a steady decline. Recently, some methanol producers in the northwest have been under maintenance, which has led to a reduction in the import of olefins; however, this negative factor has been offset to some extent. Overall, the market is in balance between supply and demand, and some companies are reluctant to sell their products, driving up prices. However, most downstream purchases are made on demand; existing contracts from earlier in the market are still in effect, and there is limited volume of new orders. Port replenishment at the end of the month has largely been completed; currently, there is little demand from downstream users, resulting in slow trading activity. There are significant differences among industry players regarding the future trend, leading to volatile market conditions with fluctuations occurring in certain regional areas. Under the influence of multiple factors, the domestic methanol market is likely to experience narrow fluctuations in the near term, with trends that are localized or regional in nature.

Methanol prices as of June 2, 2016: http://www.chemcp.com. China Chemical Products Network – Company/Region Name, Type, Price, Remarks: Shandong Lianmeng Industrial-grade methanol, price 1860, cash payment; Shandong Xinneng Phoenix Industrial-grade methanol, price 1930, stable supply; Hubei Sanning Industrial-grade methanol, price 1900, some products for internal use; Shanxi Coking Industrial-grade methanol, price 1710; Shanxi Jiantao Wansinda Industrial-grade methanol, price 1770; Inner Mongolia Shilin Chemical Industrial-grade methanol, latest price available; Anhui Haoyuan Industrial-grade methanol, price 1900, delivery against acceptance; Anhui Linhuan Coking Industrial-grade methanol, price 1930, delivery against acceptance; Dalian Dahuahua Methanol, price 1950, for local sales only; Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Industrial-grade methanol, no price available; Hebei Dingzhou Tianlu New Energy Industrial-grade methanol, price 1820; Heilongjiang Qitaihe Jiwei Industrial-grade methanol, price 1900; Heilongjiang Yidaxin Industrial-grade methanol, price 1900; Heilongjiang Jianlong Steel Industrial-grade methanol, price 1900, factory price; Chongqing Wansheng Methanol, price 1800, not for export at present; Jiangsu Yizhou Coal Coking Industrial-grade methanol, price 1900; Sichuan Chuanwei Industrial-grade methanol, price 2000; Jiangsu Hengsheng Industrial-grade methanol, price 1900; Guizhou Jinchiji Chemical Industrial-grade methanol, price 1900; Sichuan Dazhou Steel Industrial-grade methanol, no price available; Shanxi Jinfeng Industrial-grade methanol, price 1750, high-purity version, delivery against acceptance; Shandong Linyi Hengchang Industrial-grade methanol, price 1920, normal supply; Shandong Linyi Lan Yue Chemical Industrial-grade methanol, price 1910, price for external sales; Henan Xinlianxin Industrial-grade methanol, price 1900; Shanxi Datuhe Coking Industrial-grade methanol, price 1720; Hebei Zhengyuan Chemical Industrial-grade methanol, price 1840, delivery against acceptance; Heilongjiang Baotailong Coal Methanol, price 2450; Shandong Yankuang Group Industrial-grade methanol, price 1860, normal supply; Shandong Tengzhou Shenglong Industrial-grade methanol, price 1880, factory price; Daqing Oilfield Industrial-grade methanol, price 2300, factory price; Heilongjiang Zhongmei Longhua Industrial-grade methanol, price 2450; Shandong Mingshui Dahuahua Industrial-grade methanol, price 1860, cash payment. Keywords: Methanol, Price Database

Analysis of methanol price trends on June 2, 2016: http://www.chemcp.com. As of June 2, 2016, according to China Chemical Products Network, the average ex-plant prices for methanol produced by enterprises in central and eastern Shandong increased by 10–30 yuan per ton, reaching 1850–1890 yuan per ton. Traders in Zibo and its surrounding areas generally sold methanol at around 1890 yuan per ton. Dynamic enterprises are seeing decent shipment volumes, with some methanol plants under maintenance. The mainstream retail prices for enterprises in southern Shandong have risen by 20 yuan per ton, reaching 1890–1900 yuan per ton. Traders are offering prices of around 1870 yuan per ton for deliveries to the Linyi area without invoices. Prices are on the rise due to ongoing market dynamics, and enterprise shipments remain satisfactory. In the southern and southeastern parts of Shanxi Province, mainstream manufacturers are selling at 1,690–1,760 yuan per ton; the acceptance-based quote stands at 1,780 yuan per ton. In Linfen, cash transactions are occurring at around 1,690–1,720 yuan per ton, while in Changzhi, prices range from 1,740–1,760 yuan per ton. Market activity remains fairly active for now. The prevailing selling prices for methanol produced from coal or coke oven gas in Heilongjiang Province are around 1,800–1,850 yuan per ton. The products are mainly sold locally and in Jilin Province ； The quotes provided by the main traders in Liaoning range from around 1,930 to 1,980 yuan per ton; demand in the market is weak, resulting in sluggish sales. The methanol market in the Northeast region remains stable. The spot ex-factory price for enterprises in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia is 1,640–1,710 yuan per ton; cash payment is applicable for lower-end products, while acceptance payments are used for higher-end products. Currently, the ex-factory prices for enterprises in northern Shaanxi range from 1,680 to 1,710 yuan per ton. For major enterprises in the Guanzhong region of Shaanxi, the ex-factory prices fall within the same range of 1,640 to 1,710 yuan per ton. Lower-end prices are quoted in cash, while higher-end prices are quoted on a acceptance basis ； The ex-factory prices for enterprises along the northern route in Inner Mongolia range from 1,660 to 1,700 yuan per ton, while those for enterprises along the southern route are between 1,680 and 1,700 yuan per ton. Primarily serves olefin enterprises. The methanol market in the Southwest region remains stable. Major enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing are quoting local ex-factory prices at 1,850–2,000 yuan per ton; the prevailing selling price is around 1,760–1,780 yuan per ton. Most manufacturers primarily fulfill existing contracts. Major traders in the Sichuan-Chongqing area are purchasing at around 1,850–1,880 yuan per ton, inclusive of taxes; overall transaction activity remains sluggish. In the Anhui region, the prevailing negotiation prices for low-end grades have increased by 20 yuan per ton, ranging from 1920 to 1930 yuan per ton. The dynamic methanol market is on the rise; major manufacturers are operating normally, but actual shipments are slightly lower. Contracts are being fulfilled as usual, and manufacturers’ shipment volumes remain decent. In the short term, a wait-and-see approach is likely to prevail. In the Hebei region, manufacturers are quoting prices of 1,820–1,860 yuan per ton. In Shijiazhuang and its surrounding areas, companies are selling at around 1,760–1,780 yuan per ton; traders are offering prices between 1,780–1,800 yuan per ton. In the Wen’an area, quotes without invoices range from 1,800–1,830 yuan per ton. In Tangshan, the prevailing selling price is 1,800 yuan per ton. Overall, market transactions remain fairly active for now. Methanol producers in Henan region have raised their external pricing by 30 yuan per ton, to 1930 yuan per ton; the usual selling price is around 1760–1830 yuan per ton, with a stable market situation. The mainstream quotes from traders in Luoyang are around 1,800–1,860 yuan per ton, and the shipment situation is satisfactory. In Hubei, the prevailing negotiation price ranges from 1,900 to 2,040 yuan per ton; for lower-end products, it is the factory prices of major manufacturers, while for higher-end products, it is the quotes from traders in Wuhan. In Hunan, the prevailing negotiation price is between 2,060 and 2,100 yuan per ton – lower-end products have quotes from traders in Changsha, while higher-end products come at factory prices from major manufacturers. The methanol market in these two regions remains stable. The ex-plant prices of major enterprises in Fujian range from 2,100 to 2,150 yuan per ton. The dynamic methanol market is stable, and the actual transaction prices can be negotiated; some prices at ports are between 1,930 and 1,960 yuan per ton, with the actual transaction prices being slightly lower. The prevailing market price for methanol in the Yunnan-Guizhou region is around 1,950–2,000 yuan per ton, with the actual transaction price being around 1,950 yuan per ton. Activity in the local market is limited; the market remains calm with minimal price fluctuations.

Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with significant differences in views regarding their future trend. http://www.chemcp.com June 3, 2016 China Chemical Products Network Reporter: Ye Siqi Yesterday, the price of methanol futures showed an upward trend. Among them, the main methanol contract MA1609 opened at 1,875 yuan per ton, followed by volatile trading, and closed at 1,918 yuan per ton, up 32 yuan per ton or 1.7% from the previous trading day. Yesterday, the trading volume of contract MA1609 increased by 28,268 lots to 673,000 lots, while the trading volume for the previous trading day decreased by 18,088 lots to 385,000 lots. 　　In terms of the spot market, according to Ruida Futures’ data, the price in the Taicang port in East China is around 1,890 yuan per ton. At the end of June, the selling price was 1,890 yuan per ton, while the buying price was 1,880 yuan per ton. At the end of July, the selling price remained at 1,890 yuan per ton, but the buying price dropped to 1,885 yuan per ton. 　　According to Zhongyu Information’s monitoring, recently, as some methanol manufacturers in the northwest region carried out maintenance work, the reduced import of olefins offset these negative effects to some extent. The overall market was in balance between supply and demand; some companies were reluctant to sell their products, which led to rising prices. However, in most of the key markets, purchases are mainly made on demand; in some markets, low-price contracts from earlier periods are still in effect, and new orders are generally limited in volume. Currently, there is not much demand for goods at the port’s downstream end, resulting in slow trading activity. There are significant differences of opinion among industry players regarding the future market trend, and the market remains volatile. 　　“Recently, methanol prices have been strong, primarily due to frequent maintenance activities in the northwestern region, coupled with low inventory levels among companies, which has pushed up spot prices and in turn driven up futures prices. ”Huang Liqiang, an analyst at Jinshi Futures, believes that the fundamentals of methanol remain weak; the supply shortage is only a short-term issue, and rising prices will drive an increase in imports. In addition, maintenance work on some coal-to-olefins plants has led to a further decline in demand. Therefore, the sustainability of the methanol rebound is in doubt. With cost support on the downside and weak supply and demand on the upside, methanol is likely to experience volatility in the coming period. 　　Ruida Futures also believes that the increase in methanol imports from the Middle East has once again heightened the overall supply pressure of methanol in the domestic market, which will drive down spot prices and thus put pressure on futures prices as well. At the same time, port inventories remain high. As of last week, inventories at ports in East China were 363,000 tons, up by 22,000 tons from the previous week; inventories at ports in South China were 167,000 tons, with a increase of 2,000 tons on a weekly basis. Furthermore, low prices of downstream formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE are putting pressure on futures prices. Therefore, the short-term recommendation is to go short at higher levels.