Soda ash plummets to 1,000 yuan per ton, caustic soda is even more tragic

Thread Content

Soda ash plummeted 1,000 yuan per ton, Haihua lost 320 million yuan, caustic soda even more tragic source: China Chemical Information Network As of the end of the second quarter of this year, the inventory of three plants, Qinghai Alkali Industry, Kunlun Alkali Industry and Sichuan Hebang, totaled approximately 300,000 tons, and the inventory of finished products at soda ash plants across the country has exceeded 700,000 tons. According to statistics from Financial Weekly reporters, there are 32 listed companies whose main products are soda ash and caustic soda. 　　One phenomenon is that alkali companies are very concerned about the rise and fall of the real estate industry. Because the original sources of building materials such as glass, doors, windows, floors, and pipes are inseparable from soda ash or caustic soda. In fact, the prosperity of the building materials industry is highly correlated with the prices of soda ash and caustic soda. 　　At the same time, the papermaking, textile, metal smelting and other industries that divide the downstream market of alkali products have contributed to the rise and fall of their prices. 　　Soda ash and glass both rise and fall "The uses of soda ash are relatively concentrated, 40%-50% is used to make glass, and about 20% is used in papermaking, smelting metals, etc. ”Wu Jianping, chemical industry researcher at Huatai Securities (9.67,0.10,1.04%) said: “Glass is mainly used in real estate and automobile building materials, of which the real estate sector accounts for the vast majority. ” 　　In fact, "real estate industry-glass industry-soda ash price" is a quite clear price transmission route. 　　“Glass prices have now fallen to multi-year lows, and some production lines have been forced to stop. ”A person in charge of a glass production company in Tianjin, surnamed Li, told reporters, “Glass prices are closely related to the start-up rate of real estate projects under construction. ” 　　according to * * According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of newly started housing construction fell by 6.8% year-on-year from January to August this year. In the first half of the year, the leading glass company Jinjing Technology (3.42, -0.02, -0.58%) lost more than 100 million, Luoyang Glass (5.40, -0.09, -1.64%) and Yaopi Glass (5.72, 0.01, 0.18%) lost 52.41 million and 35.12 million respectively. 　　As for soda ash and glass, price transmission is more rapid. 　　Judging from the distribution of production areas, large alkali production enterprises such as Shandong Haihua (4.23, 0.09, 2.17%), Sanyou Chemical (4.00, 0.08, 2.04%), Qingdao Alkali Industry (7.48, 0.27, 3.74%) are gathered in the Bohai Bay Rim and the central and northern Yellow Sea. The Bohai Rim and Shandong Peninsula are also important domestic glass industry bases. 　　Glass production companies are highly dependent on regional soda ash suppliers, resulting in a phenomenon where soda ash prices and glass prices both fall and rise. 　　Just this year when the price of glass plummeted, soda ash, which is upstream of glass, also fell to its cost price. Correspondingly, when glass prices soared in 2010, the price of soda ash quickly doubled to more than 3,000 yuan per ton. However, high inventories affect the linkage reaction between the two. 　　According to data from the China Glass Information Network, the average price of glass across the country basically showed a general increase in late September. However, the price of soda ash is still falling, 1,000 yuan/ton lower than the highest level last year. Excessive inventory also leads to a "disconnect" between the prices of soda ash and upstream raw salt. 　　“More than 90% of raw salt is used to make soda ash, accounting for about 30% of the soda ash production cost, and is also an important factor affecting the price of soda ash. ”An unnamed analyst from Hongyuan Securities (19.39,0.55,2.92%) told reporters. 　　A research report from Guohai Securities (10.04, 0.04, 0.40%) in August this year stated that "Shandong sea salt production this year will decrease by approximately 3 million tons year-on-year, accounting for approximately 5% of last year's national production, which will have a positive impact on raw salt prices in the second half of the year." In fact, the price of raw salt does not fluctuate much at present. 　　“It is quite special that the prices of raw salt and soda ash are out of sync, but this phenomenon has lasted for about a year, which also shows the seriousness of the alkali surplus. ”said the above-mentioned analyst. 　　The "seesaw" effect of caustic soda and PVC will be more obvious. Compared with soda ash, caustic soda is more widely used, has fierce competition among its peers, and is more likely to fluctuate in price. 　　From the perspective of the industrial chain, the downstream consumer industries of caustic soda are mainly papermaking, textile (printing and dyeing, chemical fiber), and alumina. According to the "China Chlor-Alkali Industry Investment Analysis and Prospect Forecast Report 2010-2015" released by China Investment Consulting, the consumption ratio of caustic soda in the paper industry is 25%, the consumption ratio in the textile industry is 19%, and the consumption ratio of alumina is 7%. The prosperity of these main industries that "eat" caustic soda has become a barometer of caustic soda price fluctuations. 　　From a single product perspective, alumina is undoubtedly the most closely related to caustic soda. One ton of caustic soda consumes about 100-130 kilograms (concentration in hundreds), and the amount of mother liquor filled in the early stages of new projects is even greater. 　　“The start-up of the alumina enterprise's equipment directly affects the shipment and production of the caustic soda enterprise. ”A chemical industry analyst at a securities firm in Shenzhen said: “When the international financial crisis affected my country's alumina market in 2008, many alumina companies had to suspend or reduce production, causing a sharp drop in caustic soda consumption in the industry and a rapid fall in prices. ” 　　Before the "power" of downstream products, caustic soda is always constrained by the price of symbiotic products. 　　“Caustic soda is a passive product that is produced along with the manufacture of chlorine. The chlor-alkali industry often uses chloride for production. ”The above-mentioned Hongyuan Securities analyst said: “Because chlorine cannot be stored, caustic soda can also be replaced by soda ash. ” 　　In fact, chlorine is cheap. What really affects the price of caustic soda is polyvinyl chloride (hereinafter referred to as "PVC") made with chlorine as raw material. This product is widely used in the real estate and building materials market such as pipes and profiles. 　　 “Judging from the historical curve, the output of PVC and caustic soda has always been very high. The lowest point of PVC output is the highest point of caustic soda output. ”An industry insider who has been tracking PVC for a long time said. 　　“There is an obvious correlation between PVC price and caustic soda price. The two have a "seesaw" relationship, and PVC price changes generally precede caustic soda, with a lead time of about 2 to 4 months, and then changes in PVC price will be transmitted to caustic soda. Because there are more factors affecting the price of PVC, the sensitivity to price changes is higher. ”said the above-mentioned analysts. 　　Among core listed companies, Sanyou Chemical has the largest soda ash production capacity in the country, with an annual output of 2.2 million tons of soda ash. ； Shuanghuan Technology (6.29,-0.16,-2.48%) has an annual output of 1.8 million tons of soda ash. Recently, Qingdao Alkali Industry, which produces 800,000 tons of soda ash annually, announced that it expects a net profit loss of about 180 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year. Shandong Haihua, whose main product is soda ash, also suffered a loss. It expects a net profit loss of 315 million to 320 million yuan from January to September this year, of which the loss from July to September is 155 million to 160 million yuan. The company explained that the reason for the loss was "the company's downstream enterprises are not operating enough and demand is not strong." 　　According to statistics from the Soda Ash Association, as of the end of the second quarter of this year, the inventory of Qinghai Alkali Alkali, Kunlun Alkali and Sichuan Hebang totaled about 300,000 tons, and the inventory of other manufacturers totaled 440,000 tons. The inventory of finished products at soda ash plants across the country has exceeded 700,000 tons. 　　Similarly, the product differences in the chlor-alkali industry are very small. The market is basically completely competitive, and the life-and-death phenomenon is quite obvious. Tianyuan Group (6.84, 0.17, 2.55%), the oldest PVC manufacturer, produced 477,700 tons of PVC and 413,200 tons of caustic soda last year, a year-on-year decrease of 8.34% and 4.04% respectively. Net profit fell by 80% year-on-year, with an interim loss of 160 million yuan reported this year. Xinjiang Tianye (6.91, -0.09, -1.29%), which also specializes in caustic soda, PVC and chlor-alkali chemicals (9.97, -0.29, -2.83%), achieved its best performance since 1996, with an annual output of 260,000 tons of caustic soda. 　　“The "seesaw effect" has created a win-win situation for Inner Mongolia Junzheng (6.48,0.03,0.47%) Company. The company has an annual output of 314,100 tons of PVC and 236,400 tons of caustic soda. The company stated that “the price of alkali (including caustic soda and liquid alkali) has increased significantly year-on-year, which to a certain extent has compensated for the impact of the decline in the average price of PVC on operating profit margins. ”According to statistics from the China Chlor-Alkali Industry Association, domestic caustic soda production capacity reached 34.12 million tons in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. However, the company's production * * It seems that it has not retreated.