The price of calcium carbide has plummeted by 3,500 yuan per ton, leading to losses for various enterprises

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After reaching a yearly high of 7,900 yuan per ton in late October, the price of calcium carbide saw a sharp decline, experiencing volatile fluctuations; currently, the standard ex-plant price of calcium carbide in the main production area of Wuhai is between 4,300 and 4,400 yuan per ton. Regarding future trends, industry experts believe that tight supply combined with a moderate recovery in demand could help the calcium carbide market emerge from its current low levels. According to Meng Xianxing, deputy director of the Shandong Chemical Industry Research Institute, the characteristics at the bottom of the price curve were evident; in early October, driven by factors such as tight supply and the resumption of operations by PVC-producing enterprises that had been under maintenance, prices in the calcium carbide market continued to rise to their highest levels of the year. However, in late October, as power restrictions in Inner Mongolia eased, the operating load of calcium carbide manufacturers increased, leading to a rise in market supply. Coupled with high prices of calcium carbide, which resulted in weak demand from downstream users, a downward trend in prices began. Entering November, the price of calcium carbide continued to fall, dropping by 3,500 yuan so far. It is understood that in the face of this unfavorable situation, calcium carbide manufacturers adopted a strategy of selling their products promptly to secure profits, but weak demand led to some companies still accumulating inventory. Currently, the operating rate of the calcium carbide industry is 73.5%, a slight increase from the end of October. “Looking ahead, although the two furnaces under maintenance at Shuangxin are scheduled to resume operations soon, there are still furnaces undergoing maintenance at Zhonggu Chemical and Shenmu Electrochemical. Inner Mongolia Zhonglian plans to service one furnace, while Dongyi Chemical intends to put 4–5 of its 6 furnaces under maintenance for a period of 4–5 days. As a result, calcium carbide supply is expected to decline. ”Meng Xianxing analyzed. Additionally, the rapid decline in calcium carbide prices has led to successive losses for enterprises, making manufacturers highly reluctant to lower their prices. Entering mid-November, companies such as Inner Mongolia Zhonglian and Ningxia Dadi tentatively raised the prices of calcium carbide, and traders showed high enthusiasm for purchasing it. It is expected that the downward trend in the calcium carbide market will be curbed, with fluctuations and upward trends becoming the norm. Costs are on the verge of stabilizing. Looking at coal from upstream sources, under policy controls, the price of washed coal has dropped nearly in half, from its previous high of 2,300–2,400 yuan per ton. Under the synergistic effect, the entire industrial chain of calcium carbide-related raw material, namely semi-coke, has shown a downward trend to varying degrees. Driven by high profits in the earlier period, coking coal production increased significantly, with manufacturers holding varying levels of inventory. However, due to weak demand in the downstream market, the production of ferrosilicon decreased by 104,600 tons compared to the same period last year. Demand for minor-grade products remained weak, and sales performance was significantly worse than that of medium-grade products. Meanwhile, the high prices in the early period led to a postponement of purchases for some export orders, with demand for minor ingredients showing clear signs of weakness. Furthermore, affected by rising electricity prices, enterprises downstream in the lignite sector are showing signs of losses; their production rates have decreased, leading to reduced demand for lignite and falling prices. However, recent prices of semi-coke have reached the psychological threshold set by downstream users, who will gradually resume their purchases. Once the prices of semi-coke reach their bottom level, market transactions are expected to increase. Looking at the current coal market, most areas in the north have entered the heating season, which will provide some support for demand for coal. At the same time, there are already signs of a narrowing and gradual bottoming out in the coal market. In addition, demand for thermal coal remains strong, driving a gradual improvement in coal shipments. Overall, with coal prices stabilizing and downstream demand gradually improving, the risk of a further significant decline in semi-coke prices has essentially been eliminated. On the cost side, this will not pose a major hindrance to the recovery of the calcium carbide market. Demand is showing a moderate recovery. According to Pan Jinsong, a professor-level senior engineer at the Shandong Academy of Industry and Information Technology, in terms of the downstream PVC industry, after a rapid decline in the price of calcium carbide—the raw material—the cost pressures on enterprises purchasing PVC from external sources have eased, and their profits have begun to rise. The operating rate of PVC producers has increased significantly; in particular, the utilization rates of plants in North China and Central China have gone up by 20-30%, leading to a rise in calcium carbide purchases. Currently, PVC prices in the domestic market are low, and the export market is operating smoothly; some PVC manufacturers are receiving plenty of orders, with around 70,000 tons of orders awaiting shipment abroad. Domestic downstream demand has not shown any increase. Although power restrictions in regions such as Zhejiang are being gradually lifted, downstream manufacturing enterprises remain at low operating levels and continue to make only essential purchases, which limits further increases in the operational rate of the PVC industry. However, the PVC maintenance facility will be restarted in the near future, which is undoubtedly a major positive development for the calcium carbide raw material market. Looking at 1,4-butanediol on the downstream side, the Shaanxi Chemical plants have resumed operations, but the Dongyuan, Guotai, Ronghe, and Tianye plants are still under maintenance; as a result, the overall industry capacity utilization is low, and the supply of this product remains tight. The overall demand side downstream is at a moderate level; some industries are still operating at a loss. The transmission of costs to the end-users is hindered, and major customers are highly resistant to high prices. Apart from purchasing through contracts, they prefer to place small orders for spot purchases to meet their essential needs. On the other hand, with manufacturers limiting the supply of vinyl acetate, there is a clear bullish sentiment in the market. The downstream sector is relatively receptive to price increases, and strong demand is providing support; thus, there are still bullish expectations for the vinyl acetate market. The operating rates of manufacturers are likely to increase gradually, which could help the calcium carbide market emerge from its current low levels and start to rise.