The market price of sulfur rose from 4,000 yuan at the beginning of the year to 5,850 yuan by the end of March, an increase of 46.25% on a quarterly basis.

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In the first quarter of 2026, the market price of sulfur rose from 4,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 5,850 yuan by the end of March, representing a quarterly increase of 46.25%. Geopolitical factors have led to a significant decline in import volumes, yet there was still demand in the first quarter; as a result, sulfur market prices are expected to remain high in the short term. In terms of market prices, sulfur prices remained stable in the first quarter before rising, with March in particular being a key period for the increase in sulfur prices. At the beginning of 2026, due to the Spring Festival holiday, market activity was relatively low; the price of granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port fluctuated within a narrow range of 4,000 to 4,370 yuan, while the price of domestic solid sulfur was around 3,640 to 4,050 yuan. After the Spring Festival, as downstream phosphate fertilizer manufacturers gradually resumed operations, market demand started to recover, and prices rose slowly to 4,400 yuan by February 29th. Port inventories continued to decline, falling from 1.9642 million tons at the beginning of the year to 1.7398 million tons by the end of February, setting the stage for subsequent price increases. Since March, the domestic sulfur market has seen sharp price increases driven by geopolitical conflicts and tightened supply. At the beginning of the month, due to disruptions in shipping in the Middle East, the volume of sulfur arriving in China dropped significantly. On March 16, the price rose to 4,670 yuan, an increase of 6.14% compared to the end of February. As of March 27, the price of granular sulfur at the Yangtze River Port had reached 5,850 yuan, representing a monthly increase of 32.95%. There was a strong bullish sentiment in the market, with prices approaching the 6,000 yuan mark at one point; middlemen held back their supplies and were clearly optimistic about future prices. Meanwhile, inventory levels in the domestic sulfur market have dropped to 1.5498 million tons, reaching a low level for this time of year in recent years, which provides solid support for high price levels. Supply and demand market: On the supply side, the domestic sulfur market relies on imports to an extent of over 40%. Of these, about 56% of imported goods come from the Middle East. The sharp contraction in the supply side during the first quarter was the main reason for the price increases. From January to February 2026, China’s total sulfur imports amounted to 1.0353 million tons, a significant decrease of 35.03% on a year-on-year basis. Since March, political and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have persisted, coupled with a export ban imposed by Russian refineries; as a result, the amount of sulfur expected to arrive in the country in March was only around 450,000 tons, a sharp drop of over 50% compared to the previous year, creating a significant shortage on the import side. Regarding domestic sulfur production, capacity expansion is constrained by upstream refining projects; by 2026, the new sulfur production capacity in China will be only around 400,000 tons per year. Although production increased steadily in the first quarter, it still fell short of the increase in demand. At the same time, domestic refineries are expected to further reduce their supply, making it difficult to fill the gap caused by imports. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate manufacturers remain high at 75%~85%, and there is still a steady demand for sulfur. Currently, the monthly sulfur consumption in the domestic market is between 1.4 and 1.6 million tons, which is accelerating the reduction of inventory levels. Moreover, the expectation of a decrease in supplies at lower prices further enhances the bullish sentiment in the market. Outlook for the future: In the short term, although demand for phosphate fertilizers may weaken temporarily in the second quarter, supply-side factors such as geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to ease in the near term; therefore, imports arriving at ports are not expected to improve significantly, and port inventories will likely remain low. Sulfur prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels in the second quarter. In the medium to long term, the supply and demand of sulfur in China will remain in a tight balance by 2026. Global sulfur production capacity will grow only modestly, and the increase in domestic production will be limited; as a result, a mismatch between supply and demand is likely to persist, with high prices remaining the norm.