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Analysis of plastic PVC price trends

2017-05-23View Original

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Analysis of PVC raw material prices on May 23, 2017. On May 23, 2017, trading in China’s PVC market was relatively sluggish; futures prices declined amid volatility, and there was a strong atmosphere of caution among market participants. Upstream manufacturers had low inventory levels and were inclined to maintain high prices, while end-users mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, making purchases only in small quantities. The prevailing transaction price of SG-5 produced by the calcium carbide method in the East China market is 6,050–6,200 yuan per ton ; The prevailing transaction price of SG-5 produced by the calcium carbide method in the South China market is 6,100–6,180 yuan per ton ; In North China, the pre-tax mainstream transaction price for SG-5 is 5,600–5,650 yuan per ton. 1. Good news today: Salt Lake Haina went offline due to a malfunction on February 14th ; Xinjiang Yihua stopped operations on February 17 ; Neimenggu Junzheng began maintenance work on the evening of April 16 and completed it on May 7 ; Jinyuyuan plans to carry out maintenance at 12 a.m. on April 25, with the maintenance scheduled to last for a week ; Shengxiong in Xinjiang: Shutdown and maintenance of 250,000-ton old production unit ; Yibin Tianyuan’s 380,000-ton plant is under maintenance as of May 3 ; Henan Lianchuang’s 300,000-ton plant undergoes maintenance on May 5 ; Yangmei Hengtong will undergo maintenance on May 7th, with a planned maintenance period of 20 days ; Qilu Petrochemical’s 250,000-ton facility will begin maintenance work starting today, with a planned duration of 45 days ; Inner Mongolia Yihua to undergo maintenance on the 20th, scheduled for 7 days ; Shandong Dongyue will stop operating temporarily today; planning to resume operations today ; 2. Negative news today: Environmental inspections are being carried out across the country, with a focus on addressing serious environmental issues and **no leniency allowed** ; The NYMEX contract for June delivery rose by $0.40, or 0.79%, to close at $50.73 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.26 in July, gaining 0.48% to settle at $53.87 per barrel. The PVC futures for contract 1709 dropped by 65 yuan per ton, closing at 6155 yuan per ton, representing a gain of 1.05%. 3. Characteristics of intraday market trading: Monitoring indicators, description of characteristics, key factors today – falling futures prices; volume and price: stable volume and price; supply: corporate inventories are decreasing, while social inventories are in a phase of reduction; end-users are actively seeking products at lower prices; traders are trying to maintain high prices when selling; the general attitude is one of caution. 4. Finding transaction prices for plastics: Transaction prices for PVC on May 23rd (unit: yuan/ton). Manufacturer, grade, transaction price, change in price, region of transaction, delivery method: Salt Lake SG-5: 6080, 30%, South China, pick-up; Zhongtai SG-5: 6150, -20%, South China, pick-up; Junzheng SG-5: 6150, -20%, South China, pick-up; Salt Lake SG-5: 6100, 0%, East China, pick-up; Jintai SG-5: 6200, 0%, East China, pick-up; Beiyuan SG-5: 6200, 0%, East China, pick-up. 5. Views of plastic analysts: Futures prices have stopped rising and are declining; the attitudes of spot market sellers have changed, with a growing sense of caution, leading to a slowdown in the pace of sales. However, upstream companies have low inventory levels and are actively pushing up prices ; Traders mainly raise prices taking advantage of the situation ; End-users seek low-end suppliers, while shipments of high-end products are hindered. It is expected that the domestic PVC market will remain in a state of narrow-range consolidation in the next trading day; close attention should be paid to futures prices, inventory levels, and downstream demand. (Excerpt from China Chemical Products Network)

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