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In 2019, the price of glycerin continued its downward trend from 2018. The weak underlying conditions in the market have led to continuous price declines. Faced with such a downward trend, downstream buyers are becoming more cautious about making purchases. The pessimistic outlook among market participants, coupled with an oversupply, all act as negative factors for the glycerin market. As of May 22, the CIF China price for 80% crude glycerin was $195 per ton, representing a 25% decline from $260 per ton at the beginning of the year, and a 50% drop compared to $387.5 per ton during the same period in 2018. The glycerin market brings mixed feelings to different parties. For the end-users of glycerin, a 50% drop in its price as a raw material significantly reduces their purchasing costs, which is certainly a positive development. However, for those involved in the glycerin trade, the ongoing decline is a source of concern. Looking at the second half of the year, based on the comprehensive analysis of the available data, the pressure for an increase in glycerin supply remains high; however, the demand from downstream industries does not show sufficient strength, so the downward trend in glycerin prices is likely to continue. Oil prices remained strong in the second half of the year, and expectations of an increase in glycerin supply persisted. Glycerin is a by-product of biodiesel, and any changes in biodiesel production directly affect the supply in the glycerin market. POGO is an important indicator for measuring the enthusiasm for biodiesel production. At the beginning of 2019, international crude oil prices stopped falling and started to rise. OPEC and its partners implemented production cuts in order to maintain market balance. U.S. sanctions put pressure on Iran’s oil production, causing Brent crude oil prices to rise from $54.91 per barrel at the start of the year to $72.18 per barrel currently, while WTI prices increased from $46.54 per barrel to $62.99 per barrel, with increases of over 30% in both cases. Meanwhile, the price of palm oil has been on a downward trend, so the price gap for POGO continued to widen negatively in the first half of this year. This widening gap in POGO prices stimulated the production of biodiesel, and as a result, the supply of glycerin increased as well. This led to an oversupply in the glycerin market during the first half of the year, putting pressure on prices and causing them to keep falling. The pressure of increased supply in the crude glycerin market in the second half of the year is expected to remain unchanged. The latest Commodity Market Outlook released by the World Bank predicts that crude oil prices will average $64 per barrel in 2019, and $65 per barrel in 2020. In the first half of 2019, the average crude oil price was 62 dollars per barrel, which implies that there is still some room for an increase in international oil prices in the second half of the year. Furthermore, in their latest outlook reports in May, EIA and HSBC raised their forecasts for crude oil prices in 2019. Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that Brent crude oil will rise by more than $80 per barrel in the next three months. Looking at the global supply of palm oil, Malaysia and Indonesia both have high production levels during this period, with no signs of a reduction in production. Coupled with favorable profits for soybean oil and canola oil, the global supply of oils is sufficient; therefore, prices for palm oil are not likely to improve during the seasonal increase in production period in the third quarter. This suggests that the POGO price spread will remain in a negative range in the coming months. The profits from biodiesel production remain considerable, and the demand for palm oil in the food sector remains relatively stable. Given the weak trend in palm oil prices, the supporting effect of biodiesel becomes evident; it is expected that the surplus supply of glycerin throughout the second half of the year will not ease. Imports of crude glycerin in China have surged. According to customs data, in the first quarter of this year, China’s imports of crude glycerin reached 284,200 tons, a 22.66% increase on a year-on-year basis, while imports of refined glycerin amounted to 77,500 tons, representing a 55.3% increase. It reached a new high for first-quarter imports in recent history. Production in the main production areas remains high, and there is an increase in supplies destined for China. Driven by the substantial profits associated with biodiesel, as well as policies in Southeast Asia aimed at increasing the use of biodiesel, the production of crude glycerin in the regions that are major biodiesel producers has further increased. As a major importer of glycerin, China is also a target for countries supplying crude glycerin to export to. Looking ahead to the market, there are strong expectations of high levels of crude glycerin supply throughout the year; it is anticipated that the surplus supply of glycerin in China will continue to put pressure on price trends. The increase in downstream demand is much smaller than the increase in supply. In China, the glycerol route is the largest application area for epichlorohydrin, accounting for 50% of the total demand for glycerol; followed by pharmaceutical and cosmetic uses, which account for 17%, and the tobacco industry, which accounts for 7%. Here, we analyze the data on epichlorohydrin and cosmetics to examine the demand trend for glycerin. This year, the epichlorohydrin market has seen fluctuations in prices, but even the lowest prices during the year remained above 10,000 yuan per ton. Meanwhile, the price of glycerin continued to fall throughout the year, resulting in relatively high market profits for epichlorohydrin produced using glycerin as a raw material. It is estimated that the gross profit is around 3,000 yuan per ton. Driven by such substantial profits, there is high enthusiasm among manufacturers for operating epoxy chloropropane plants using the glycerol method. It is understood that, with a few units shut down, most manufacturers are operating at full capacity or even beyond it. Despite the influence of high profits, many epichlorohydrin manufacturers have plans to build new facilities or expand their existing capacity. In the second half of the year, the 30,000-ton/year glycerol-based epichlorohydrin plant of Hebei Donghua Ji Heng and the 35,000-ton/year glycerol-based epichlorohydrin plant of Jiangsu Suxing are scheduled to come online. From the 3rd quarter to the 4th quarter, Jiangsu Yangnong and Zhejiang Haobang also have corresponding capacity expansion plans. Based on the current domestic production capacity of 600,000 tons of epichlorohydrin via the glycerol method, the additional 65,000 tons added in the second half of the year represents an increase of around 10%. However, there is limited new production capacity for epoxy resins in the downstream sector, and due to environmental concerns, some factories plan to shut down or relocate in the coming years. The oversupply of epichlorohydrin is under significant pressure, and the industry may experience a period of restructuring in the future. According to Euromonitor’s data, in 2019 China’s consumption of cosmetics is set to continue its steady upward trend, with estimated retail sales reaching 450.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.92%. This growth rate is 2.37 percentage points lower than that in 2018. Overall, the demand for glycerin in the domestic market is expected to grow by around 10% in 2019. However, due to the pressure from imports, which are set to increase by about 50%, it is unlikely that the situation of oversupply in the glycerin market will change. Faced with the continuously falling prices of glycerin, the market atmosphere is currently pessimistic, and prices of glycerin are likely to drop further.