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Currently, the global naphtha market is in a state of divergence. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, expects that the global naphtha market will maintain this trend in 2026. In Asia, driven by the ongoing efforts to optimize production capacity in East Asia, as well as the uncertainties surrounding Russian naphtha supply, the Asian naphtha market will continue to face pressure due to weak profits in the petrochemical sector in 2026. The European naphtha market is expected to experience structural contraction, while the U.S. naphtha market is set for a moderate recovery. In Asia, capacity optimization adjustments are the key issue of concern in the current market. Among them, the restructuring plan of South Korea’s petrochemical industry has attracted considerable attention due to its negative impact on Asian demand for naphtha imports. In August 2025, the South Korean government announced a plan to restructure the petrochemical industry, aiming to reduce the total ethylene production capacity of domestic producers by 2.7 to 3.7 million tons per year, affecting petrochemical complexes in cities such as Ulsan, Daejeon, and Busan. The South Korean government has also set December 2025 as the deadline for submitting reorganization plans; companies that submit their plans by this date will receive policy support such as financial subsidies to assist them in transitioning to more sustainable and efficient business models. Currently, Modern Chemical and Lotte Chemical have submitted plans to reduce production capacity at the Daisan complex, while LG Chem and GS Caltex are exploring the integration of naphtha cracking units in Ulsan; the specific plans of other South Korean manufacturers remain to be announced. At this stage, the restructuring plan is still in its initial phase of implementation, and a specific timeline has not yet been determined. In the Japanese market, affected by low profits in petrochemical products and plans to shut down production facilities, demand for naphtha has shown an overall downward trend. The naphtha cracking unit at Maruzen’s Chiba plant is scheduled to be shut down between 2026 and 2027; Idemitsu Kosan and Mitsubishi Chemical have decided to integrate the ethylene production capacity in the Chiba area, reducing their combined annual production capacity to 550,000 tons. Platts Energy previously reported that Idemitsu’s Kawasaki plant is expected to be shut down by 2028. The uncertainty regarding Russian supply sources is another major factor affecting the Asian naphtha market. Traders in Singapore said that since the U.S. imposed sanctions in October 2025, the market has become more stringent in its scrutiny of Russian-supplied goods, which has significantly dampened buyers’ interest in making purchases; buyers in key Asian import regions have reduced their purchases of Russian naphtha. To fill the gap in supply from Russian sources, and amid a weak European market, more arbitrage goods from Europe and the United States are flowing into the Asian market. Although peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are still ongoing, many Asian trade experts believe that the uncertainty surrounding Russian naphtha supplies has not been resolved. However, they said that even with a reduction in supply from Russia, the current market supply remains sufficient; furthermore, once the Sitrra refinery of Bahrain Oil Company is upgraded, Bahrain’s total refining capacity will increase to 405,000 barrels per day, which should lead to an additional increase in the supply of naphtha in the future. In Europe, due to the intensification of carbon neutrality policies and the closure of refineries, demand for traditional petroleum-based rosin is expected to decline at an annual rate of 1.2% by 2026. Furthermore, the EU Carbon Border Tax (CBAM) will increase production costs by $25 per ton, further suppressing demand. However, the demand for aviation fuel blending and the advancement of projects to replace it with bio-based naphtha will help to offset some of this downward pressure. As bio-based projects carried out by companies such as BASF in Germany are gradually put into effect, the proportion of renewable naphtha is increasing steadily. The U.S. market, benefiting from a slowdown in the substitution effect of shale gas ethane and the commissioning of new petrochemical projects along the Gulf Coast, is expected to see its naphtha demand growth rate rebound to 1.8%. Although ethane cracking remains dominant, some flexible feed systems will increase their purchases of naphtha in order to optimize profits, while the demand for high-octane gasoline supports a steady need for naphtha. The optimization of transatlantic trade flows has led to an increase in U.S. exports of light naphtha to Europe, which may further stimulate demand within the United States.