Thread Content
Several European market analysts have recently argued that the United States’ military action against Venezuela and its attempt to take control of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife could increase investors’ concerns over geopolitical uncertainties, thereby affecting supply conditions and risk perceptions in the oil market. Marshall Alexandrovich, an analyst at the British salt marshes economic consulting firm, said that from trade frictions to the situation in the Middle East, to the recent events in Venezuela, the market is currently facing high geopolitical risks, which are affecting market sentiment and investment decisions. Tina Fordham, founder of the UK-based firm Fordham Global Outlook, believes that the United States’ actions against Venezuela have increased market uncertainty, and market sentiment will be disrupted in the short term. Affected by the geopolitical tensions triggered by Venezuela in the United States, international crude oil prices rose at the close on the 5th, while gold and silver prices saw significant increases on that day as well. ABN AMRO released an analysis report on the 5th, stating that there will be more uncertainty in the supply side of the oil market. The short-term impact depends to a large extent on what kind of **** will occur in Venezuela. If the transition period is long and chaotic, the risk of supply disruptions in the short term will increase. If there is a smooth transition and the government is more willing to cooperate with the United States, the market may face greater downward pressure. Reuters, citing several energy analysts, reported that despite Venezuela having the world’s largest proven oil reserves, its oil production has been declining over the past few decades. Affected by the sanctions, Venezuela’s crude oil supply in late December 2025 was relatively low, at around 500,000 barrels per day on average. In the medium to long term, the impact on the market will depend on the extent to which Venezuela’s oil production can be increased. According to analysis by IG market brokers, the situation in the United States and Venezuela represents a typical case of geopolitical disruption, which in the short term has made Brent crude oil in London and light crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange the focus of market attention. At the same time, the actual trend of oil prices will depend more on whether there could be disruptions in supply, and whether new *** developments will affect Venezuela’s ability to export oil.