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Thailand’s petrochemical industry faces pressure from both exchange rates and tariffs

2026-01-17View Original

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  According to reports from Sinochem New Network, recent market analysts have said that as the expected economic growth rate slows from 2.2% in 2025 to 1.5% in 2026, the petrochemical and plastics industry, which accounts for around 20% of the country’s GDP, is facing severe challenges. The core challenges facing the industry stem from the dual pressures of currency appreciation and trade barriers.   Market participants say that exchange rate shocks directly erode profit margins. By 2025, the Thai baht will have appreciated by 8.2% against the US dollar, making it the second strongest currency in Southeast Asia. For petrochemical plastic exporters that settle in dollars, this means a direct drop of over 8% in price competitiveness. Meanwhile, the additional 19% tariff imposed by the United States on ** goods came into effect last August. Under this dual pressure, the export growth rate of ** is expected to plummet from 12% in the second half of last year to just 0.6% in 2026.   There is structural weakness on the demand side. Although the **manufacturing PMI remained in the expansionary range at 57.4, growth in external orders slowed down significantly, and the domestic market also faced pressures; the persistent low inflation level indicated insufficient consumer demand. For the petrochemical industry, this means a reduced willingness to purchase raw materials, which could put pressure on the operating rates of production facilities.   Industrial response strategies need to be adjusted across multiple dimensions. On the cost side, companies need to reassess their raw material procurement strategies and consider increasing the proportion of purchases from local sources. On the production side, increasing the capacity for high-value specialty chemicals and bio-based materials has become the direction of transformation. On the market side, tapping into the ASEAN internal market as well as emerging markets such as the Middle East and Africa has become an urgent priority. At the policy level, **the central bank may cut interest rates further to stimulate the economy, but what the industry really needs are targeted export tax rebates and support for industrial upgrading.   This adjustment will test the supply chain resilience and product innovation capabilities of the **petrochemical industry. Those companies that are able to quickly adjust their product structures and optimize cost control will gain new competitive advantages in this round of industry reshuffling.

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