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The Chinese Academy of Sciences releases updates on research progress regarding the framework roadmap for \"carbon neutrality\"

2021-05-31View Original

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On May 30, at the 7th Academic Annual Conference of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Academician Ding Zhongli of the Academy delivered a special report titled \"Research on China’s Carbon Neutrality Framework Roadmap,\" outlining the progress of consulting projects undertaken by the Academy regarding carbon neutrality in recent times. Academician Ding Zhongli explained the scientific concept and implications of carbon neutrality, analyzed the domestic and international landscape regarding efforts to reach carbon peak and achieve carbon neutrality, and outlined the background and significance, key scientific issues, task framework, and existing preliminary findings of the major advisory project undertaken by the Chinese Academy of Sciences titled “Research on a Framework Roadmap for China’s Carbon Neutrality.” He also put forward five preliminary suggestions regarding the path toward achieving carbon neutrality in China in the future. Carbon neutrality refers to a state in which human emissions (from the use of fossil fuels and land use) are offset by human-induced actions (such as wood stock, soil organic carbon, and engineered sequestration) and natural processes (such as ocean absorption, carbon burial through erosion and deposition processes, and carbon fixation in alkaline soils), resulting in net zero emissions. In 2019, global carbon emissions amounted to 40.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide, of which 86% came from the use of fossil fuels and 14% resulted from changes in land use. Of these emissions, 31% is ultimately absorbed by terrestrial carbon sinks, 23% by marine carbon sinks, and the remaining 46% remains in the atmosphere. Carbon neutrality means finding ways to reduce or absorb the carbon dioxide that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere. Currently, countries around the world are at different stages of carbon emissions, which can generally be divided into four categories. The emissions of developed countries such as the United Kingdom, France, and the United States reached their peak in the 1970s and 1980s, and are now in a decline phase after that peak ; Our country is still in a phase of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, as well as an economic growth pattern that has entered a new normal, with emissions gradually reaching a \"plateau\" stage” ; In emerging countries such as India, **emissions are still rising ; There are also many developing ** and agricultural countries where emissions have not yet “started” due to rapid economic and social development. Some EU member states were among the first to commit to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, and China also made a commitment in September 2020 to \"strive to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and work toward achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.\" ”This is an ambitious yet extremely difficult strategic goal. Looking at the historical relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in major developed countries, the level of development of a country is closely related to its per capita cumulative carbon emissions. In the case of China, per capita cumulative carbon emissions are far lower than those of the major developed countries, as well as below the global average. Our goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is far more difficult than that in developed ** countries. In response to the technological needs related to carbon neutrality, the divisions of the Chinese Academy of Sciences established a major advisory project titled “Research on a Framework Roadmap for China’s Carbon Neutrality.” The goal is to develop a preliminary roadmap that can be discussed, revised, and improved, while also providing practical recommendations on how to implement this roadmap. The project is organized into three categories: emission reduction, carbon sequestration, and policies. Nine specific research topics have been established to address issues such as forecasts for future total energy consumption, ways to gradually increase the share of non-carbon energy sources, projections regarding fossil fuels that cannot be replaced, the need for continuous development and innovation in non-carbon energy technologies, assessments of the current level of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems, analysis of the future potential for carbon sequestration in such ecosystems, evaluations of carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies, suggestions for making the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau a model region that meets relevant standards first, as well as policy and technical analysis studies. Academician Ding Zhongli pointed out in his report that carbon neutrality may seem complex, but it can be summarized as a system based on efforts at three levels: the first level is the energy supply side, where non-carbon energy sources should be used as much as possible to replace fossil fuels for power generation and hydrogen production, in order to create a \"new type of power system or energy supply system\"” ; The second end is the energy consumption side, where efforts are made to replace fossil fuel consumption with non-carbon energy sources such as electricity, hydrogen, geothermal energy, and solar energy in virtually all fields including residential use, transportation, industry, agriculture, and construction ; The third aspect is human-induced carbon sequestration, which involves using a combination of approaches such as ecological restoration, soil carbon sequestration, and carbon capture and storage to remove the carbon dioxide that must be emitted. In short, it involves choosing appropriate technical methods to achieve \"carbon reduction and carbon sequestration\" in order to gradually reach carbon neutrality. Based on the strategic goal of carbon neutrality and the existing achievements of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ carbon-related initiatives, Academician Ding Zhongli also put forward five preliminary views: (1) The process of achieving carbon neutrality is both a challenge and an opportunity; it will represent a major transformation of the economy and society, as well as a significant change affecting a wide range of fields. “\"Technology is king\" will be fully reflected in this process – those who are ahead in terms of technology will gain an advantage in future international competition. **Active research and planning are needed, along with decisive action, systematic organization, mobilization of resources, and special support, in order to achieve dominance in the industry through technological advancement, thereby making it an important driving force for national rejuvenation. (2) This round of “major transformation” requires efforts in three areas: the energy structure, energy consumption, and artificial carbon sequestration. The funds needed will be astronomical, and it is impossible to cover these costs through fiscal subsidies; instead, a market-oriented approach must be adopted, competition encouraged, and progress made steadily. **Financial resources should be primarily invested in technology research and development and industrial demonstration, with the goal of enabling faster progress in China’s technologies and industries compared to other countries. During this process, it is particularly important to prevent a significant rise in energy prices, which could affect people’s livelihoods and product exports. (3) The advisory services provided by this department can only offer a preliminary framework for suggestions, to be discussed, revised, and improved by the scientific and technological community. It is hoped that, by bringing together the wisdom of many, the department’s recommendations will provide meaningful guidance on how our country can advance this major transformation, as well as on key issues such as establishing a well-structured and clearly accountable R&D system within the future innovation framework. The project team believes that China’s academic community should adopt an open attitude, participate actively, and leverage its imagination and creativity ; **The relevant departments could consider going through a period of diverse opinions when determining the roadmap, rather than rushing to reach a conclusion. (4) During the “great transformation,” coordinated progress across industries is extremely important. “Carbon reduction, carbon sequestration, electricity substitution, and hydrogen energy substitution all require additional costs for enterprises. If different companies in a particular industry fail to work together in a coordinated manner, it will inevitably allow those companies that do not take such actions to save costs, resulting in a situation where the inferior replaces the superior. Therefore, designing sector-specific \"carbon neutrality\" roadmaps and effective incentive/restraint mechanisms should be put on the agenda as soon as possible. (5) To evaluate the degree of carbon neutrality at the **, regional, industry, corporate, and even household levels, it is necessary to measure it from both revenue and expenditure perspectives. From the perspective of energy consumption, \"emissions\" are relatively easy to measure ; “\"Sequestration\" (i.e., carbon fixation) is difficult to measure accurately due to its diverse types and complex processes; in particular, it is hard to determine the increase in carbon sequestration resulting from human efforts. Therefore, **a systematic standard framework for monitoring, calculation, reporting, and verification should be established as soon as possible, so as to ensure that we have the upper hand when it comes to assessing China’s carbon balance.** In addition, Academician Ding Zhongli suggested conducting in-depth research on issues such as the allocation of future emission rights and the reporting and verification of carbon emissions. In terms of technological support, there are still many fundamental scientific issues that require in-depth research, such as the sensitivity of carbon dioxide to warming. In terms of achieving carbon neutrality, the tech industry still has a long way to go.

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