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The Southeast European market faces potential supply risks. According to Sinochem News, the EU’s ban on the import of refined Russian crude oil products will come into effect officially on January 21. Market experts say that the impact of this ban varies significantly across different regions of Europe; Northwestern Europe, which has established well-developed alternative sourcing networks, has a greater capacity to withstand risks, while the refining and petrochemical markets in Southeast Europe face higher risks of supply chain disruptions. Article 3ma, added by Regulation 833/2014 of the EU, explicitly prohibits member states from purchasing, importing, or transporting refined petroleum products of Russian origin, reserving only limited exemptions for specific partnerships. This is another significant escalation by the EU in the area of energy sanctions since it first imposed a ban on Russian crude oil. This ban specifically targets petroleum products under customs code 2710, whose raw materials for production are Russian crude oil under customs code 2709. This ban is an extension of the G7’s crude oil price cap mechanism, aimed at targeting those who use refineries in third countries to process Russian crude oil, thereby allowing it to flow back into the European market in a disguised form. In fact, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the EU announced in December of that same year a ban on the direct import of Russian crude oil. However, since then, Russian crude oil, processed into finished products at non-EU refineries, has continued to flow into the European market through complex trade chains. A distributor in North-West Europe noted that the ban has “no real impact” on the local market, as many suppliers have already avoided products derived from Russian crude oil. But he also said, “The impact of this measure on Southeastern Europe may be far greater than on Northwestern Europe, as various products derived from Russian crude oil have previously been channeled into the European market via the Turkey-Romania corridor.” ” “The \"Turkey-Romania corridor\" used to be an important route for Russian refined petroleum products to enter Europe; this historical supply chain structure meant that Southeast Europe was the first to be affected by the new regulations. A hydrocarbon solvent trader revealed, “Some producers of aliphatic compounds in Europe have been using Russian crude oil as a raw material for production.” ” Another dealer said that the ban could have a particularly significant impact on the hydrocarbon solvents sector, especially all products that enter Europe via Turkey. Under the new regulations, EU customs will apply stricter scrutiny to the proof of origin documents for crude oil used in refining submitted by companies. Although regulations provide exemption clauses for certain types of cooperation, the specific list of entities eligible for these exemptions is still under review by the European Commission. It is worth noting that common gasoline blending components used in Europe, such as methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), fall under customs code 2909 and are therefore not covered by the restrictions set out in ban 2710. (Pang Xiaohua)