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Goldman Sachs recently stated that driven by factors such as limited substitutes for aviation fuel and petrochemical products, an energy demand growth rate that outpaces the pace of substitution by low-carbon technologies, and the additional demand generated by artificial intelligence (AI), global oil demand will continue to rise until 2040. It is expected to increase from 103.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 113 million barrels per day by 2040. Goldman Sachs states that over the next 15 years, non-OECD countries **will account for more than 90% of the growth in oil demand in the petrochemical sector. In addition, demand for oil in road transport is expected to increase by 900,000 barrels per day, reaching a peak in 2030, after which it will stabilize before gradually declining; by 2040, consumption will be 1.7 million barrels per day lower than at that peak. This trend reflects a conflict between two forces: the global car fleet is set to grow by 58%, but as electric vehicles account for 30% of the total passenger vehicle fleet by 2040, oil consumption per vehicle will decrease by 35%, offsetting the former effect. By 2040, electric vehicles will account for nearly 70% of global passenger car sales. Goldman Sachs also stated that artificial intelligence will indirectly boost global oil demand, with an estimated increase of 3 million barrels per day by 2040. The impact of artificial intelligence on oil demand is primarily achieved by promoting global GDP growth, rather than through direct energy consumption. If artificial intelligence is widely adopted, the additional output generated by this effect could reach 6 million barrels per day by 2040. At the same time, oil’s role in power generation will gradually diminish, which means that any electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence will not have a significant impact on oil demand. Previously, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also stated that if the current major global energy policies remain unchanged, global oil demand will continue to rise until 2050. (Jing Hua)