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The Composite Index of China’s Fertilizer Wholesale Prices Remained Stable Author/Source: China Agricultural Means of Production Distribution Association Date: 2019-05-08 Clicks: 15 Recently (April 29 – May 3), the composite index of China’s fertilizer wholesale prices remained stable. On May 6, the China Fertilizer Wholesale Price Index (CFCI) stood at 2274.48 points, down 8.85 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.39% ； An increase of 106.85 points year-on-year, representing a growth rate of 4.93% ； It dropped by 104.39 points from the base period, representing a decline of 4.39%. On May 6, China’s Compound Fertilizer Retail Price Index (CCRI) was 2501.17 points, down 7.07 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.28% ； An increase of 54.19 points year-on-year, representing a growth rate of 2.21% ； It rose by 54.46 points compared to the base period, representing a growth rate of 2.51%. Supply situation: In terms of nitrogen fertilizers, the overall operating rate of urea manufacturers remained roughly the same as last week. In terms of phosphate fertilizers, the operating rate of diammonium fertilizer manufacturers remains stable. Regarding potassium fertilizers, the arrival price of the 60% powder crystal grade of the salt lake-based product is 2,350 yuan per ton, with inventory levels continuing to rise ； Port potassium inventory remains high ； The volume of potassium arriving through border trade is low, with shipments being made in small orders based on demand. Regarding compound fertilizers, the pre-order volume for summer fertilizers is high, and the overall operating rate of enterprises remains high. Demand Situation: Regarding nitrogen fertilizers, market demand has generally decreased compared to last week ； Agricultural demand is slowing down; only in some areas is there limited purchasing of fertilizers for rice, while demand for fertilizers for corn is rising slowly ； As industrial demand weakened and urea prices dropped at the beginning of the week, compound fertilizer manufacturers and plywood factories became more cautious about their purchases of urea, showing less enthusiasm for buying it. In the second half of the week, market prices rose due to tenders in India, leading to an increase in industrial demand for urea. Regarding phosphate fertilizers, the domestic spring plowing market for diammonium fertilizers has largely come to an end, and companies are now focusing on the summer markets in East China and North China ； In terms of export markets, India and Pakistan currently have high levels of inventory, resulting in low enthusiasm for purchasing ； Chinese companies’ export orders can last until early May at the latest, with the market outlook uncertain thereafter. Regarding potash fertilizers, the operation rate of compound fertilizer manufacturers remains high, with purchases of such fertilizers being made based on actual demand. Regarding compound fertilizers, the spring plowing market in the northern and southwestern regions has come to an end, while in other areas, pre-orders for summer fertilizers are the main focus, with new orders arriving slowly. International Market International nitrogen fertilizer prices have generally risen. India announced tenders on May 1, which is beneficial for China’s urea exports and provides some support for domestic prices in China. International phosphate fertilizer prices have generally declined. India and Pakistan have high levels of diammonium phosphate inventory, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm; their purchase prices are lower than those offered by Chinese companies for exports, putting significant pressure on Chinese diammonium phosphate exporters. International potash prices remain relatively stable, with no significant positive developments observed in the Southeast Asian market for now. Future outlook: In terms of the nitrogen fertilizer market, the overall operating rate of urea manufacturers remains stable ； Demand for urea in the market is declining; purchases of fertilizers for rice and corn are progressing slowly, while industrial demand is likely to remain stable ； Indian tenders in the international market boost market confidence; China’s urea may see export opportunities ； In summary, urea prices are expected to remain generally stable in the short term. In terms of the phosphate fertilizer market, the supply of diammonium phosphate remains stable ； On the demand side, the domestic spring market has largely come to an end, while the summer market is about to begin; currently, trading volume of diammonium phosphate is limited ； The outlook for export markets remains uncertain; inventory levels in India and Pakistan are high, and there is a strong tendency on the part of market participants to wait and see ； In summary, it is expected that the price of diammonium will remain stable. In terms of the potassium fertilizer market, supply is relatively ample; there are no significant positive factors on the demand side, and inventory pressures remain. It is expected that potassium fertilizer prices will remain stable in the short term. In the compound fertilizer market, the signing of new orders by companies has slowed down recently ； Fluctuations in the price of raw material urea have an impact on the costs of high-nitrogen fertilizers during the summer, and it is expected that the prices of compound fertilizers will remain relatively stable in the short term.