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What else should be paid attention to besides urea? Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2019-06-10 Clicks: 18 For a long time, the focus in the fertilizer market has been on urea, and its price trends have been a topic of much discussion. Indeed, the price of urea changes more frequently than that of all other fertilizers, and it also influences the market trends for these various fertilizers. The urea market has been highly volatile recently, and the outlook for the future has been uncertain. Although there is an increasing sense of speculation in the market, the current situation indicates that prices remain weak during the holiday period. We are currently in a transitional period for the fertilizer market during summer and autumn. While striving to wrap up summer fertilizer sales, all parties involved are preparing to make a move in the autumn fertilizer market in order to compensate for the shortcomings of the spring and summer periods. Naturally, companies and distributors pay special attention to several factors that could affect the future of compound fertilizers. It is expected that the autumn fertilizer market will gradually start up after the end of June; so what developments can be expected at that time? First, regarding raw materials. Since the beginning of the year, raw material costs have remained slightly higher than those in the same period last year, which is a key factor contributing to the high prices of compound fertilizers. As for the prices of fertilizers in the autumn, the trends in the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium-based fertilizers are of crucial importance. Recently, the urea market has been volatile, with frequent fluctuations having made it difficult to predict its future trend. Market participants are hoping for an increase in demand from agricultural sectors in June as well as positive developments on the international stage, but more time is needed to see what will happen ； Fall fertilizers are mainly high-phosphorus products; the raw material procurement by compound fertilizer manufacturers may break the curse of rising prices for ammonium nitrate ； Inventory of potash fertilizers at ports is significantly higher than in the same period over the past, demand is insufficient, and prices are likely to remain weak in the short term. Secondly, on the demand side. Autumn is the peak season for winter wheat cultivation in the main agricultural regions. The production from areas in the north where winter wheat is grown, such as the Two Rivers region, Shandong, and Shanxi, accounts for around 56% of the country’s total wheat production. Given this, the demand for compound fertilizers alone in the Central Plains region is already considerable. However, looking at the demand across different seasons, there may be a tendency toward a decrease in this demand. One reason for this is the adjustment in the cropping structure, which leads to a reduction in the area dedicated to wheat cultivation, and consequently less use of compound fertilizers ； The second reason is the increase in alternative fertilizers, which, while impacting the traditional compound fertilizer market, are gradually gaining acceptance among end-users. Finally, on the supply side. Looking solely at the summer fertilizer market, the overall supply situation is fairly normal; even when demand increases in certain areas, there have been no shortages or outages as rumored. Therefore, it is expected that supply will remain stable during the autumn fertilizer market period. One reason for this is that environmental and safety inspections have been carried out on several occasions, and those companies that failed to meet the standards have either been eliminated or have now met the required standards, so normal production is not affected ； The second reason is that the fertilizer market in autumn spans a slightly longer period, providing more time from the preparation of fertilizers to their sale, making it difficult for large-scale purchases to occur. In summary, after mid-June, the summer fertilizer market is likely to come to an end, with attention shifting to the autumn fertilizer market. Given the current trends in raw materials as well as supply and demand, it is expected that the market will remain sluggish during the initial phase of its operation. (Feng Hongyang)