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Below 1900 – Is the price of autumn fertilizers set to decline again? Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2019-07-01 Clicks: 11 At the end of June, the market for compound fertilizers during the off-season was quite active, with enterprises being the key players in this activity. Many of these enterprises began holding meetings with distributors for autumn fertilizers across the country; they offered interest-based rebates or continuously introduced new products at prices that were truly attractive. So, could the market for autumn fertilizers decline again this year? Firstly, compared to the same period last year, the market trend has been downward. The editor has retrieved the data on raw material prices from last year; let’s take a look. At that time, the typical ex-factory prices of urea in Shandong and the Two Rivers regions were between 1,960 and 2,030 yuan per ton, while the prices offered by a few high-end smaller manufacturers were slightly lower ； In Hubei region, after the price increase, the mainstream ex-factory quotes for 58% powdered monoammonium phosphate stand at **2,350–2,400 yuan per ton; most manufacturers are accepting orders only in limited quantities ； In Qinghai, there have been no significant changes in the potassium chloride market; prices show a slight upward trend. The new pricing set by the salt lake company has been in effect for nearly a week now. The quoted prices for 60% potassium chloride at the destination range from 2,150 to 2,200 yuan per ton, with some room for negotiation ； Let’s now bring up this year’s raw material price data for a look. Currently, the prevailing ex-factory prices of urea in Shandong and the Two River regions are around 1,870–1,920 yuan per ton, showing signs of a slight upward trend ； In Hubei region, the prevailing ex-factory price for 58% powdered monoammonium is between 2200 and 2250 yuan per ton; companies are receiving many orders, with only a few restricting new orders ； The arrival price of 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai is around 2,350 yuan per ton, but the actual transaction price can be negotiated significantly. Overall, the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium this year are about 200-300 yuan per ton lower than last year. Based on the costs of general-purpose fertilizers, the cost of compound fertilizers has decreased by around 100 yuan per ton. Secondly, why do companies successively launch hit products? In the previous article, I mentioned that some enterprises in Hubei Province have launched a popular 45% sulfur-based general-purpose fertilizer at a price of around 2,150–2,180 yuan per ton. This week, certain enterprises in Jiangsu Province also introduced a popular 45% chlorine-based general-purpose fertilizer priced at approximately 1,880 yuan per ton. During the off-season, prices for general-purpose fertilizers have entered an era of fierce price competition. What’s the reason behind this move by these enterprises? First, seize market share in advance and collect payments ahead of time ； Secondly, during the off-season, it is necessary to ensure normal production. By collecting a certain amount of advance payments after launching popular products, companies can purchase raw materials, thereby ensuring uninterrupted production and maintaining a normal working order for employees. This is a way to reduce corporate expenses. Finally, based on past experience, it’s evident that it’s no longer uncommon for compound fertilizer companies to delay the launch of their star products during the off-season. However, the timing of such launches has been getting earlier each year: in 2017, they were introduced in October; in 2018, in August; and in 2019, as early as June. But does this trend indicate that sales of autumn fertilizers will inevitably decline? It’s still too early, but based on current raw material prices and the situation regarding best-selling products, it is likely that the price of fertilizers this fall will be at the same level as last year’s low point or slightly lower. (Yang Xiaomei)