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Rainfall once in a century – what impact does it have on autumn fertilization? Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2019-06-13 Clicks: 9 At present, it is the period of transition between the summer and autumn fertilizer markets; while demand for summer fertilizers is declining in various regions, the autumn fertilizer market is about to emerge. Affected by factors such as raw materials and supply and demand, most fertilizer products performed averagely this summer. Taking compound fertilizers as an example, not only was the trading atmosphere lukewarm, but overall sales also declined compared to the previous year. However, with the continuous heavy rainfall in various regions recently, the fertilizer market in autumn is also a source of concern. According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, over the next three days, heavy to torrential rains will occur in central and southern Jiangnan, South China, and the eastern parts of the southwest region; in some areas there will be extremely heavy rains, with locally record-breaking amounts of precipitation. In certain areas, the total rainfall will range from 100 to 200 millimeters, while in some spots it will exceed 300 millimeters. In fact, in a river basin in Guangxi, flood levels reached those that occur once every hundred years or more. As the saying goes, \"When the roof is leaking, it rains again at night\" – poor weather conditions have once again heightened the pessimism in the autumn compound fertilizer market. First, farming activities are delayed. Although the planting area of field crops such as wheat in the south during autumn is not large, the quantity of cash crops in many areas cannot be ignored either. Currently, there is continuous heavy rainfall in various regions, and the weather outlook for the future is not favorable. These adverse weather conditions may lead to delays in related farming activities downstream, mainly because the harvesting of summer crops has to be postponed, and coupled with a period of downtime, overall progress comes to a standstill. The delay in farming activities has also led to a corresponding delay in the autumn fertilizer market; it is likely that the enthusiasm of downstream buyers to place orders at the beginning of this period will decline as a result. Secondly, downstream demand has decreased. Recently, news reports of streets flooded, orchards submerged, and farmlands inundated have appeared across various information platforms, indicating that the continuous heavy rainfall has caused irreparable damage to the agricultural sectors in many areas. Once crop yields are reduced or completely lost due to disasters, the income of rural farmers will decline as well, which in turn will lead to fewer investments in farming activities for the next quarter. Overall, the price of compound fertilizers this year is indeed slightly higher than in previous years. With lower purchasing power at the grassroots level, there has also been a decrease in demand for fertilizers. In addition to its negative effects, continuous rainfall also has some positive aspects. Taking the Yunnan region as an example, influenced by global climate change and El Niño phenomena, there has been a persistent trend of high temperatures and low rainfall since the beginning of this year, as well as a delayed rainy season and an expanding area affected by meteorological drought; the area of crops damaged across the province amounts to tens of millions of mu. Recently, rainfall has occurred in most areas of the province. Although the amount of effective precipitation is limited, it may help to alleviate localized drought conditions to some extent. As a result, agricultural activities will gradually resume, and the market for autumn fertilizers will naturally become more active. In summary, given the instability in current raw material prices, most compound fertilizer manufacturers are waiting to see what will happen. There is not much clarity yet regarding the autumn fertilizer market; however, as time goes by and weather conditions improve, it is expected that the situation in this market will become clearer after the end of June. (Feng Hongyang)