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Everyone is talking about urea; do you know that the price of ammonium chloride has gone up? Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2019-07-09 Clicks: 13 In the height of summer in July, besides Ansheng, is there also “Ammonium Rise”? As things stand at present, the domestic ammonium chloride market is showing a steady and slight upward trend in some areas. However, the key customers generally maintain stable purchasing patterns. Whether factories raise prices to stabilize the market or force such increases anyway, the result is that certain regions have achieved their goals. In the East China region, the standard export price of wet ammonium has increased by 10–20 yuan per ton, ranging around 560–620 yuan per ton; supply is slightly tight in some areas, while prices remain stable in other regions with only minor fluctuations. For detailed pricing information, please visit the member area of China Fertilizer Network. The slight increase is mainly due to the weak performance of soda ash; companies that produce combined alkalis have shifted their focus to ammonium chloride as a result of cost pressures. Of course, this is also influenced by the temporary reduction in supply from certain large manufacturers due to maintenance work, as well as by the substantial number of orders awaiting shipment, which provides support and boosts prices. At present, ammonium chloride manufacturers in China are operating at high capacity levels, yet there is a lack of new orders, limited demand for new contracts, and insufficient confidence among factories to raise prices. Under these circumstances, will ammonium chloride prices really rise as expected this July, or is there still a long way to go before any price increase occurs? On one hand, the operating rate of ammonium chloride producers tends to rise rather than fall, which is a major headache for these enterprises. Despite the difficulties posed by the dual requirements of environmental protection and safety inspections, most companies manage to meet the standards; only a few are forced to reduce production on a short-term basis ； Currently, aside from some ammonium chloride manufacturers in Sichuan that are undergoing maintenance, the operation rate of all other plants has reached 80%, or even full capacity ； Furthermore, as of now, no ammonium chloride manufacturers have indicated any plans for maintenance work in the near future. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the overall operational rate of domestic caustic soda manufacturers is around 80.6%. One ammonium chloride plant in the Northeast region has stated that it plans to start up its chemical liquid ammonia production facility in the middle to late part of this month, while the caustic soda production facility is likely to be brought online at the end of this month or early next month. It is expected that the operational rate of domestic ammonium chloride manufacturers will continue to remain high, at least at around 80% in the short term. On the other hand, demand is weak, and the procurement progress by downstream parties is slow. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the overall operational rate of domestic compound fertilizer manufacturers is currently around 44.13%. The production of summer fertilizers has largely come to an end, especially in the Northeast region, where the situation is particularly poor. As for the prices and policies related to autumn fertilizers, these remain uncertain for now. Large manufacturers are only purchasing raw materials in limited quantities, resulting in slow production progress. Moreover, due to the high costs of various raw materials, there is little enthusiasm for procurement, which fails to support the market for raw materials. Furthermore, demand for extruded granular ammonium chloride is also weak; the situation in the northeastern region is particularly stagnant, with some manufacturers of such products shutting down or reducing production. Some large factories in the central region as well are operating at reduced capacity. Additionally, prices are low, with factory prices in certain areas ranging only around 750–780 yuan per ton, resulting in slow sales. In addition, large agricultural supplies distributors should purchase as needed, ensuring only a sufficient stock level is maintained. Most of them are eyeing the Northeast market, and inevitably a silent \"war\" will break out in this strategically important region in the future. Finally, there is urea, which attracts worldwide attention; the support it provides for ammonium chloride is subject to uncertainty. An Indian tender caused the already rising urea market to come to a halt immediately; some urea producers in various markets adjusted their prices slightly, and even the purchase prices for urea by compound fertilizer manufacturers declined. As of Friday, the purchase price of urea by compound fertilizer companies in Linyi was between 1930–1950 yuan per ton, while the ex-factory price of anhydrous ammonium sulfate shipped from Jiangsu to Shandong was around 700–730 yuan per ton. If urea prices continue to fall, it will hinder the rise in ammonium chloride prices. Overall, considering solely the operating status of caustic soda manufacturers, these companies do have significant concerns regarding price increases. Coupled with the gradual decline in urea prices, end-users are also resistant to such price hikes ； But after all, terminal inventory is limited, and considerations are also being given to autumn fertilizers; moreover, ammonium chloride manufacturers still have some orders pending fulfillment, so they are not overly pessimistic. It is expected that under cost pressures, soda ash manufacturers will see slight increases in their prices in certain areas; the market may stabilize through price hikes, or partial stagnation could occur. (Tan Junying)