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Urea price trends across China on November 19 Author/Source: Yuege Agri Supplies Network Date: 2019-11-19 Clicks: 73 New pricing figures released: The lowest price on India’s east coast is 251.37 USD/ton, while the lowest price on the west coast is 248.38 USD/ton. The price on the East Coast is equivalent to a Chinese FOB price of $236 to $237 per ton, which is about $19 per ton lower than the previous bid. Affected by this, the trading atmosphere in the market has cooled down since the weekend. The amount of goods ready for shipment at upstream factories has decreased; sales performance was poor today, and prices for high-end products have slightly softened. The operation status in downstream industrial markets remains stable, with purchases being made on a demand-driven basis; however, this is not sufficient to absorb domestic production. Overall, Hebei and Shandong have the smallest price gap compared to export prices, and some factories may still choose to export a small amount of goods to relieve pressure. Affected by rumors of a shutdown at the Kawanoe plant, prices in South China and Southwest China remained relatively stable. Overall, changes in upstream production capacity and the extent to which domestic factories take on export orders will shape a new supply-and-demand pattern in the domestic market; it is expected that the market will remain range-bound this week. In Henan, prices increased by 10 yuan per ton in some areas; in Liaoning, they dropped by 30 yuan per ton in some areas. In Jiangsu, prices rose by 10 yuan per ton in certain places and dropped by 30 yuan per ton in other areas. In Shanxi, prices for products shipped to other regions decreased by 10 yuan per ton. In the middle and late part of November, special attention should be paid to the operation status of urea gas header plants, as well as that of compound fertilizer manufacturers. The urea production plant in Henan Xinxinxiang has a low operating load, with a current daily output of around 1,800 tons. The current reference price for small particles at the factory is 1,670–1,690 yuan per ton. The load on the urea production plant in Shanxi Tianze is fairly good. The price for large-grained urea shipped by truck is around 1,580 yuan per ton, while the price for small-grained urea shipped by truck is around 1,565 yuan per ton. Prices vary depending on the region; most orders come from contract clients, and the supply is mainly sent to surrounding areas and the south. In Shandong region, the ex-factory price for small and medium-sized particles is 1,650–1,750 yuan per ton; the prevailing transaction price is around 1,640–1,660 yuan per ton. In Linyi market, the transaction price is approximately 1,700–1,710 yuan per ton, while in Heze market it’s around 1,680–1,690 yuan per ton. Prices remain stable for now. In Hebei region, the ex-factory price for small particles is 1,660–1,700 yuan per ton, with the prevailing transaction price at around 1,620–1,640 yuan per ton; prices remain stable. In Henan region, the ex-factory price for small particles is 1,660–1,700 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In Anhui region, the prevailing ex-factory price for small particles is around 1,700–1,750 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In Jiangsu region, the prevailing price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,730–1,750 yuan per ton, while the actual transaction price is around 1,660–1,730 yuan per ton. Some companies have raised their prices by 10 yuan per ton since the weekend. In Shanxi region, the transportation cost for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,540–1,570 yuan per ton, while for larger particles it’s 1,580 yuan per ton; prices remain stable. In Inner Mongolia region, the prevailing transaction price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,440–1,500 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In Hubei region, the prevailing price for small particles is 1,680–1,700 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In Shaanxi region, the local sales price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,600 yuan per ton, while the price for shipments to other areas is around 1,540 yuan per ton; prices remain stable. In Guangxi region, the prevailing wholesale price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,790–1,800 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In Sichuan region, the ex-factory price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,600–1,780 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In Guangdong region, the prevailing wholesale price for small particles is 1,820–1,830 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In Xinjiang region, the ex-factory and transaction prices are around 1,360–1,450 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In Jilin region, the price for small urea particles is around 1,790–1,820 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In Heilongjiang region, the transaction price for small urea particles produced by local manufacturers is around 1,720 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In Liaoning region, the transportation cost for small urea particles is around 1,620–1,720 yuan per ton, and the actual transaction price can be negotiated; some companies have reduced their prices by 30 yuan per ton. As of now, the CFR price on the East Coast is 251.37 dollars per ton, which is equivalent to less than 1,400 yuan per ton at the ex-factory level in Inner Mongolia. Coupled with the lack of positive news from the phosphate fertilizer conference and continued weak domestic demand, these factors have led to cautious attitudes among downstream buyers, resulting in poor performance in new orders. However, thanks to factors such as urea costs, shutdowns of ammonia production facilities, and possible slight improvements in the operation of compound fertilizers, it is expected that the domestic urea market will remain stable in the short term, with limited declines and little possibility of price increases.