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The Current Situation and Future of Compound Fertilizers: One Good News, One Bad News. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: 2019-09-16. Clicks: 5. In the golden month of September, demand for fertilizers in autumn is gradually entering its later stage. The market for compound fertilizers shows mixed conditions – some areas are active while others are calm – with overall prices remaining relatively stable. Given future demand and raw material trends, the compound fertilizer market may face both positive and negative developments. So what is the good news? What is the bad news then? On the positive side, considering the current market situation for fertilizers, the prices of pure nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers fluctuate quite frequently, while the prices of compound fertilizers remain relatively stable, partly due to orders placed in advance ； On the other hand, constrained by high raw material costs in the earlier period, the market for compound fertilizers remains relatively stable at this time. As the demand season for autumn compound fertilizers approaches, wheat cultivation in most areas begins in October, marking a critical period for preparing these fertilizers. Demand increases significantly in regions such as Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu, which leads to an improvement in sales for most compound fertilizer manufacturers; in some areas, there is even a shortage of transportation capacity. As a result, the prices of fertilizers specifically designed for wheat remain high, with even some low-end products showing slight increases in price. The operating status of compound fertilizer manufacturers is also worth mentioning. Over the past nearly 3 months, the production rate of most of these companies has remained between 45% and 50%. Although autumn is the season when there is a higher demand for fertilizers, the increasing environmental regulations pose a challenge, which has led to a slow recovery in production levels. With limited inventory available, prices remain relatively stable. On the negative side, although the prices of compound fertilizers remained relatively stable during autumn, there were several drops in the prices of raw materials, which put significant pressure on compound fertilizer manufacturers regarding the collection of payments for autumn fertilizers. It is expected that by the end of September or early October, the autumn fertilizer market will come to an end, and the winter storage market will emerge; unless anything unexpected happens, prices are likely to drop sharply at that time. The continuous decline in the price of diammonium fertilizer raw materials has created significant indirect pressure on the winter storage market in the future, especially affecting the prices of blended fertilizers in the Northeast region. According to research conducted by China Fertilizer Network, recent quotes from blended fertilizer manufacturers in that region show prices of 42 yuan per unit of fertilizer, which is a huge difference compared to the prices of 50–53 yuan per unit last year. As a result, this year’s winter storage market will be even more challenging. In summary, the compound fertilizer market presents favorable conditions, but there are also many negative factors. Therefore, it’s not necessary to be overly optimistic when such opportunities arise; instead, it’s important to manage procurement activities properly during the off-season in order to gain an advantage in the winter storage market later on. (Yang Xiaomei)