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Potash Fertilizer Prices on the Rise – Just Waiting for Further Increase Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2020-07-07 Clicks: 6 The potash fertilizer market is currently showing a trend of steady increases, and this trend has persisted for one month now. In fact, there are already cases of price increases; for example, at the Manzhouli border trade port, the price of 62% white potash rose from around 1,550 yuan per ton earlier on to 1,580–1,600 yuan per ton at present. Another example is salt bridge potash, whose price has been said to be falling for two months yet has not actually decreased – can this not also be considered a form of indirect price increase? The price of potassium chloride is close to the minimum cost, and downstream buyers can accept the current price level; however, they are not in a hurry to make purchases ； Potassium sulfate manufacturers generally do not face inventory pressures; in fact, some of them have order schedules that extend until August. Nevertheless, overall, the prices of both potassium chloride and potassium sulfate remain stable for now. Potash fertilizer prices want to rise, but lack the right conditions! It can’t keep rising; the problem lies in “balance”. Currently, the total stock of potassium chloride in ports is around 3.3 million tons, which is significantly lower than the peak level of 4.2 million tons at the end of February and 3.75 million tons when large contracts were signed at the end of April. Nevertheless, this amount remains high compared to the same period in previous years. On one hand, prices are near their lowest levels; on the other hand, the volume of shipments has been low over the past two months. Additionally, downstream users have very limited inventory. As a result, buyers have adopted a strategy of waiting, then purchasing, and then waiting again. Both sides are currently in a balanced position, with a seemingly harmonious relationship. Additionally, in the international market, only the CIF price for large-grained products in Brazil has seen a few slight increases; currently it is still at a level comparable to the prices of large-scale contracts in our country. In other regions, prices remain stable or continue to decline at higher levels. Therefore, considering both prices and supply-demand conditions, there is currently no incentive to drive up domestic prices. The market for potassium sulfate in Mannheim is doing well; there is no significant shortage that would drive up prices, operations are at full capacity, there are no inventory issues, and profits are high, so things are going quite well. But the key point is the opening statement that \"there is no obvious shortage driving up prices.\" Demand can currently only sustain the current high profit levels; it is not sufficient to drive prices even higher. Recent reports suggest that the price of potassium sulfate is set to rise soon, and manufacturers in Qinghai’s water-salt production sector have also indicated plans to increase prices. However, when compared with the price in Mannheim, such a slight increase can currently be considered merely a return to normal levels. Can the prices of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate really rise? What are the key aspects to pay attention to? The author believes that rising prices for potassium fertilizers are indeed a major trend in the long term, but from a risk perspective, potassium chloride is suitable for long-term planning, while potassium sulfate is better suited for short-term strategies. Specifically, for potassium chloride, attention should be paid to the volume of imported potassium arriving; for potassium sulfate, focus is needed on changes in the factories’ inventory levels. At the same time, “balance” also implies the existence of dual aspects; the risks in the potassium fertilizer market cannot be completely ruled out for now. Even if the outlook is positive, it is recommended to proceed step by step in terms of strategy. (Adu)