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The fluctuations in urea prices are as dramatic as those in book prices; the price of monoammonium nitrate changes rapidly, like “lightning”. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: August 20, 2020. Clicks: 9. Since the weekend, urea prices have dropped significantly, by up to 100 yuan per ton. This is mainly because the bidding process in India has largely come to an end, resulting in obstacles to the flow of urea at ports. Meanwhile, domestic demand from industrial and agricultural sectors remains weak, and it has not improved due to the bidding activity in India. There is still a large supply of urea at low prices in the market. Currently, compound fertilizer manufacturers in Linyi, Shandong, are purchasing urea at prices between 1670 and 1700 yuan per ton, which is a drop of nearly 100 yuan compared to the previous peak prices. However, industry experts believe that urea prices will not return to their lowest levels yet. Yesterday, India announced a new round of bidding, but this has not led to a general increase in urea prices. It will be necessary to keep an eye on issues such as restrictions on cargo shipments at ports. It seems that the market has not yet reacted to these new bidding activities, as changes are happening too quickly; therefore, the market is currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The fluctuations in urea prices are as dramatic as those in book pages, with frequent changes. What about the situation with monoammonium? Perhaps something comparable is \"Flash\" from Zootopia! So far, the effect of requests for price cuts on monoammonium phosphate has not been very satisfactory; companies have reduced the price by 10–50 yuan, after which prices have stabilized. Currently, in Hubei province, the actual ex-factory price for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate is between 1800–1850 yuan, with some lower prices of around 1800 yuan. The actual ex-factory price for 58% powdered monoammonium phosphate is between 1900–1970 yuan, again with some slightly lower prices. Although large manufacturers in Sichuan have raised the ex-factory price for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate to 1800 yuan, the actual transaction prices have not increased; rather, prices were raised slightly due to an increase in orders expected to arrive until mid-to-early September. In terms of price, diammonium phosphate has indeed seen a decline, but why hasn’t demand shown any significant improvement yet? Firstly, sales of compound fertilizers are not going well in some areas, with an overall low level of production activity. Rainfall in regions such as Shandong has led to difficulties in selling compound fertilizers, and sales in areas like North China are also poor. The inventory of ammonium nitrate that was stocked earlier is being used up slowly, and the ammonium nitrate that has not yet arrived will allow production to continue for some time. Additionally, due to the poor flow of compound fertilizers and limited storage capacity, there is currently little interest in purchasing new amounts of ammonium nitrate as raw material in the short term. Moreover, since the autumn market has not yet ended, there is no urgency to start preparing stockpiles of raw materials for winter. Second, winter storage in the Northeast region has not seen a significant recovery. In the early stage, compound fertilizer manufacturers across the country turned their attention to the winter storage market in the Northeast in an attempt to secure a foothold there in advance. A few companies offered lower prices for their winter storage compound fertilizers, but this did not attract many orders. Recently, due to significant changes in the price of urea, these manufacturers have raised their prices again, waiting to set new prices based on the trends in raw material prices. Most distributors also believe that it is still too early to make purchases for winter storage, as they are uncertain about future fertilizer prices; therefore, they prefer to wait and observe. Northeastern compound fertilizer manufacturers and traders also adopt a cautious attitude toward monoammonium phosphate. Monoammonium phosphate produced by enterprises in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei and other regions has begun to arrive in the Northeast, but the prices offered by manufacturers are still about 50 yuan higher than the target prices set by large traders and compound fertilizer manufacturers. Third, the industry believes that the cost of monoammonium is low and still has room for further reduction. According to rough calculations by Zhongfei Net, the total cost of high-quality powdered ammonium sulfate in Hubei Province is around 1,600 yuan, indicating that companies can achieve considerable profits. The sulfur market is not performing well at the moment: inventory levels in Gaogang remain around 3 million tons, while those at the Yangtze River ports are as high as around 1.8 million tons. Even if prices rise, it is unlikely to see significant increases. It is precisely because of this that industry experts estimate that the cost of ammonium sulfate is low and profits are high; as a result, they lack confidence in this product and believe its prices still have room to fall, which is why they are not in a hurry to purchase it. In summary, there are no significant positive factors expected for the demand for monoammonium in the short term; supply conditions remain stable, and raw material costs are not favorable. It is likely that the price of monoammonium will continue to decline. (Zhao Hongye)