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Stalemate among ammonium nitrate producers; prices remain unstable and on the decline. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: 2021-03-29. Clicks: 8. The situation regarding ammonium nitrate has not been favorable recently; manufacturers continue to maintain high pricing. Currently, the average ex-factory price for 55% powdered ammonium nitrate in Hubei Province remains stable at 2500–2600 yuan per ton. The actual price at which manufacturers sell their product is around 2450–2500 yuan per ton. It is reported that recent transactions have taken place at a price of 2520 yuan per ton. Although traders who held lower-priced stock have already sold it, the current ex-factory price for 55% powdered ammonium nitrate is usually above 2400 yuan per ton, yet actual sales figures are not very satisfactory. It is understood that the price of monoammonium phosphate at the Bayuquan port has dropped by around 100 yuan compared to previous weeks; currently, the delivery price for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate is between 2450 and 2470 yuan, while that for 58% powdered monoammonium phosphate is around 2560 yuan. It can be seen that the price of monoammonium has been somewhat stable on the surface but is actually declining gradually. However, the factories are quite determined to maintain high prices, for the following reasons: First of all, the companies still have orders pending to be fulfilled. It is understood that at present, there are not many pending orders for powdered ammonium nitrate products such as 55% powdered ammonium nitrate among various ammonium nitrate manufacturers; these orders generally arrive around mid-April. However, there are still many pending orders for 55% granular ammonium nitrate and industrial-grade ammonium nitrate. Export orders typically remain pending until the end of May, and in some cases even until the end of June. This situation means that most factories do not face significant inventory pressure at the moment. Many manufacturers focus on meeting orders from abroad, while delivery situations in the domestic market are not very satisfactory, which indirectly confirms that ammonium nitrate manufacturers do not have much inventory pressure. Secondly, some companies are currently undergoing maintenance or have maintenance plans in place. The rotational maintenance of production facilities at some enterprises in Hubei has gradually resumed, and several other enterprises plan to carry out maintenance work; the duration of this maintenance is expected to be between half a month and one month. Large manufacturers in Anhui are scheduled to start maintenance at the end of April or early May, though the exact timing remains uncertain. In Henan, several enterprises are shifting their production to compound fertilizers, which has affected the operation of ammonium nitrate production facilities; overall, the operational rate for ammonium nitrate production may decline, but the extent of this decline is likely to be small. Moreover, the maintenance activities are not concentrated in one period, so the current overall operational rate remains at around 50-60%. It is still unclear whether enterprises will carry out large-scale maintenance in the future. In previous years, the usual period for such maintenance was from mid-April to May, and it will be necessary to monitor future demand trends to determine whether maintenance will take place as planned. Once again, the rise in prices of urea and potassium fertilizers has created a somewhat positive atmosphere for the monoammonium market. Although the tender in India did not lead to a sharp rise in urea prices, the subsequent news of an explosion at an nitrogen fertilizer plant in India has led industry experts to believe that overall supply of urea may be tight, and prices are likely to remain upward in the short term. The two price increases of Salt Lake potash this month have driven up the costs of potassium fertilizers; shipments from Salt Lake are in short supply, and there is still demand in the market. It is reported that the price of Salt Lake potash may rise further in April, as an attempt to keep up with the prices of imported potassium. Driven by such an atmosphere, at least the companies producing monoammonium have a strong willingness to maintain high prices; as a result, confidence in monoammonium within the industry is not too low, which creates a positive environment for this product. Finally, due to the improvement in urea prices, the production of liquid ammonia has decreased. Coupled with factors such as maintenance plans held by some companies, liquid ammonia prices have risen sharply recently. Although liquid ammonia accounts for a small proportion of the raw materials used in monoammonium nitrate production, its impact on costs is not significant; however, the reduced supply has led to a shortage of raw materials for some monoammonium nitrate manufacturers, slightly affecting their production. The aforementioned positive factors help to keep the prices of monoammonium stable. However, in the long term, demand conditions will still need to be monitored, as the delivery capacity of monoammonium manufacturers is not ideal. This reduces the willingness of downstream users to stock up, while manufacturers resist lowering prices. Users, on the other hand, approach purchases carefully by comparing prices, which results in a slow pace of transactions. Large-scale, concentrated purchases are unlikely in the short term; it is expected that demand will ease only in mid-to-late April. (Zhao Hongye)