Potassium chloride: sweet and sour; sing if you want to

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Potassium chloride: sweet and sour; sing if you want to. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: 2020-09-02. Clicks: 3. How much has potassium chloride risen in price? 100 yuan! I thought it would be a rather untimely and unjustified rebound, with a price of around 50 yuan; but instead, it surged forward with great momentum! Before I knew it, I started humming the song by Zhang Hanyun from \"Sisters Who Ride the Winds and Waves\"... Sweet and Sour Is Me. The \"sour\" part refers to the fact that the price of potassium chloride rose more than expected. It has been almost a month since the start of this rebound. Before the rebound, the reference price for 62% white potash at ports was between 1750 and 1780 yuan, while currently the range for actual transactions and quotes has risen to 1850-1900 yuan. Given that the support was not that strong, many in the industry considered that a price range of 1800–1850 yuan to be already quite high; perhaps around 1800 yuan would mark the end of this rebound. But the current situation is that although transactions at high prices are very limited, those at low prices have basically disappeared. 　　It is understood that the orders for border trade in September have not yet been finalized, and importers have not provided official quotes at this time; however, costs have risen as port prices have increased. It is expected that the price of 62% white potassium will rise from the previous range of 1580–1600 yuan to 1620–1650 yuan ； Salt Lake Company has not yet officially announced the new prices for September; there are rumors that the monthly discount for August will be removed and prices will increase slightly. The price of 60% pure crystals sold by agents in the market is set to rise to at least 1,800 yuan. 　　“\"Sweet\" means that once it goes up, it stays up – it’s not easy to bring it down. Although transactions at high prices are limited, low prices have also gradually disappeared. For those in the downstream sector, it’s difficult to wait and see if prices will drop any further; low prices as before are unlikely for some time, so any slight discount would already be considered good news. This is mainly because of the fierce competition among large traders in the past; now, with less pressure from a limited supply of goods, on one hand, price-based competition is so intense that it requires time to recover, and on the other hand, as market shares have been established, the time has come to reap the benefits ； At the same time, there are certain concerns regarding future international supply, such as strikes, pandemics, and conflicts, among others. 　　At this point, all that the downstream side can do is to make purchases based on demand in order to resist as much as possible. In any case, there is a lack of real driving force behind the rise in potassium chloride prices; it is still too early, and exchange rate fluctuations have also added some pressure. Therefore, the price of potassium chloride by the beginning of this month should have basically been determined by September. Even if it exceeds expectations, there’s no need to give in so quickly out of fear that the price will keep rising. The key question is: can potassium sulfate increase in price? Can compound fertilizers see price increases? One still needs to consider their own situation; if they have full confidence, then perhaps they have already made provisions when prices were low earlier on. For now, there’s nothing but to wait and see – either wait for a decline and it turns out to be a false alarm, or wait for positive developments that will drive prices up. Sing if you want to (rise if you want to). Sing if you want to, sing loudly; even if no one claps for me, at least I can still bravely appreciate myself. If you want to sing, sing it beautifully; no matter how empty the stage may be, one day you’ll see the glowing sticks being waved. 　　If it’s meant to rise, let it rise loudly; even if no one applauds me, at least I can still bravely keep rising. If it’s going to rise, it should rise sharply; no matter how empty the support levels may be, one day rows of tents will surely appear. 　　Although this rebound came a bit early and was somewhat sharp, the author is generally optimistic about the long-term price trend. Firstly, the importance of grain has increased, leading to overall rising prices for grain. Secondly, fertilizer prices are low, meaning there are few risks but great potential for gains. Moreover, it is already September; in previous years, prices always rose in October. For sellers, getting through September means things will get better from there. Whether the increase is justified or not, the facts are right before us. It’s clear, however, that this year the focus of the market has shifted to earlier quarters; to put it bluntly, this could be seen as overextending one’s resources. For those in the downstream sector, in addition to timing, quantity is also important – if you miss one opportunity, you can take the next one, as long as you don’t make the wrong choice. 　　(Adu)