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Autumn sales are still ongoing, and winter stockpiling has begun again – what will be the price of diammonium phosphate? _Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2020-09-21 Clicks: 7 First of all, sales in the autumn market are good, so companies are not under much pressure. Currently, the wholesale market for fertilizers in autumn is in its peak sales period; most factories have already completed their sales targets for this autumn and are busy with shipments. As far as the author knows, most factories in Hubei have stopped accepting new orders, and some of the large manufacturers in the southwest have run out of diammonium phosphate products. Additionally, with export orders to be fulfilled, domestic diammonium phosphate producers do not face any supply pressures at present. Unlike in previous years when it was necessary to rely on the winter storage market to ease the sales pressure in autumn, this year ammonium diammonium phosphate factories are starting up with fewer resources; low-cost supplies from factories like those in Inner Mongolia will become increasingly scarce in the future. Secondly, export conditions are good, but it is doubtful whether this strength will continue in the future. The offshore price of diammonium phosphate in our country has been rising for two consecutive months; currently, the offshore price of 64% diammonium phosphate has reached 350–355 dollars per ton. Some companies that have an advantage in exporting are shifting their sales focus to international markets, which provides strong support for the domestic autumn market. But how long can this international demand persist? In the third quarter of this year, India imported 3 million tons of diammonium phosphate, which is 2.3 times the amount imported in the same period last year; it is concerning whether international demand will remain strong after November. Once exports are hindered, the domestic winter storage of diammonium phosphate will also lose its support, and subsequent price increases will naturally be affected. Finally, a significant increase in raw material prices is difficult to achieve, and there is insufficient cost support for diammonium. Regarding phosphate rock, prices remain stable with little change in the short term. Regarding liquid ammonia, although supply has been somewhat tight in key diammonium sulfate production areas such as Hubei and Yunnan recently, leading to price increases, liquid ammonia itself has a relatively small impact on the production costs of diammonium sulfate. Moreover, as factories that were shut down resume operations, the supply of liquid ammonia will naturally increase, allowing prices to drop again. Regarding sulfur, the price of granular sulfur at the Yangtze River port is currently around 700 yuan per ton, but demand downstream is not satisfactory. The total stock level of around 3 million tons also limits the further development of its market trends. At present, the profit margins of diammonium fertilizer plants remain reasonable, and downstream distributors are naturally reluctant to accept high prices. In summary, there is indeed a demand for winter storage, and companies do not face much pressure in terms of sales. However, the export market is unpredictable, production costs remain low, and careful consideration is needed when determining prices in the winter storage market; it is not advisable to be overly optimistic. (Rong Guangwen)