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Potassium chloride prices surge above 2,000; increase of nearly 300 in two months. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: 2020-09-28. Clicks: 20. One must repay what one owes in life! In the first three months, potassium chloride levels dropped by 300, and now, in just two months, they’re on the verge of rising back again! As the long National Day holiday approaches, 62% pure potassium at ports has, as expected, risen to around 2,000 yuan per ton (price per ton, the same below). Will potassium chloride continue to deliver surprises during the upcoming October ‘Golden Month’? According to Zhongfei Net, currently the quotes for 62% white potassium at the ports of some major importers range from 2,000 to 2,020 yuan, with prices for high-quality grades having surpassed the 2,000-yuan mark. Just a few days ago, the quotes from the other importers and most traders were still between 1,920 and 1,950 yuan, while the highest prices at that time were also around 1,950 yuan. Although sales are not exactly ideal, it is believed that prices for the lower-end products will still rise rapidly. When the big players make a fuss, everyone follows suit; that’s exactly how the price of potassium chloride has risen recently. At the border trade markets, the stock of goods available from importers for September has been mostly sold out. The final selling price is 1,700 yuan per kilogram for 62% pure methamphetamine from Manzhouli. It is said that the 62% pure powder will arrive later, so there might still be some unsold stock, but for now there is no price available in the market. At present, import orders for October are being finalized one after another, and the details are not yet clear. It is said that the increase in prices in dollars will be more significant this month (the contract price for white potassium increased by 1 dollar this month). Some importers have raised their advance quotes for 62% pure white crystal to 1,720 yuan, while other importers are not in a hurry to sell at the moment and believe that prices may rise to around 1,750 yuan in the future. It is hardly surprising that the price of white powder, which is relatively scarce, will reach such levels. Salt Lake Company’s new quotes for October have also been released early: the price for 60% powder and crystals delivered to the agent’s location is 1,870 yuan, while the all-cash price is 1,850 yuan. Currently, the quotes from their agents range from 1,850 to 1,870 yuan upon arrival at the destination. Although prices are rising rapidly in most areas and such high prices have not yet been accepted by end-users, the agents say they cannot offer any discounts, as it is clear that prices are still on the rise. Moreover, Salt Lake Company’s supply of goods is already somewhat strained, and this situation is likely to worsen. The situation is completely different from two months ago, when agents’ prices were based on the base price after removing all discounts; now they are exactly equal to the manufacturer’s official prices. It seems that, at least until the phosphate fertilizer conference (October 18-20, Qingdao), the upward trend in potassium chloride prices will continue. For factory customers who are already in production, I have advised them from the start to act without hesitation and stock up by around the end of October. I believe one should approach the market situation after November with caution. Firstly, no matter how strong it may seem, this sharp rebound in potassium chloride lacks practical support; the current total inventory at ports is around 3.5 million tons, and demand from downstream industries in autumn has been average, with no strong demand present ； Secondly, the current rise is closely linked to concerns over issues on the supply side, but whether there will be further strikes in Belarus or whether companies such as Potash will stop supplying after their contracts expire are all uncertain matters; just because there are concerns does not mean these things will necessarily happen. In fact, judging from the performance of international markets in recent months, foreign investors remain, at least for now, as timid as they have been in previous years ； Ultimately, winter storage is gradually becoming a thing of the past; no matter how strong the price increases may be, they still have to face the ultimate test of demand. The prospects for the winter storage market at present remain unclear. Policies related to winter storage have been introduced in various regions around the time of the phosphate fertilizer meetings, and by November, an idea should emerge as to whether market conditions will be good or bad. Only then, by comparing the prices of nitrogen and phosphorus raw materials, can it be determined whether there is an artificial inflation in prices of potassium chloride. Potassium chloride is bound to be strong in October, but just how strong will it really be? With supplies in hand, there’s no need to worry. It is recommended that downstream parties make purchases based on their own circumstances, and then we can wait and see what happens. (Adu)