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Exports drive up domestic prices; ammonium phosphate becomes in high demand. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: February 23, 2021. Clicks: 2. Upon the return from holidays, the most popular fertilizer was not urea, which is often favored, nor potassium chloride, for which large contracts were signed just before the holidays; instead, it was ammonium phosphate, which usually doesn’t receive much attention. Since January, international prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate have been rising steadily, with prices going up across the board. By the third week of February, the offshore price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China had risen to $520–$545 per ton, while the offshore price of 55% granular monoammonium phosphate in China and the CIF price of 63% granular monoammonium phosphate in Brazil had risen to $450–$460 and $580–$600 per ton respectively, representing increases of $100–$150 compared to prices at the beginning of January. Taking the FOB price of 55% granular ammonium nitrate in our country as an example, the price at the port is around 2850–2900 yuan. Currently, the domestic factory prices for 55% granular ammonium nitrate range from 2450 to 2600 yuan. It is clear that the export price is higher than the domestic price; even before the Spring Festival holiday, the factory prices for 55% granular ammonium nitrate in Sichuan’s large manufacturers had already risen to 2350 yuan, and they continued to increase after the holiday, by 150 yuan. Despite such high prices, traders in the downstream sector are still seeking to purchase this product, which shows that ammonium nitrate has indeed become a highly sought-after commodity recently. As the export prices of monoammonium phosphate soar, the prices of this product sold domestically have also increased. It is reported that the ex-plant price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate from some large manufacturers in Hubei has reached 2300 yuan, while the price in Anhui is 2280 yuan. It is said that the actual ex-plant price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in the hands of traders in Hubei is also around 2200 yuan. Apart from a few companies that have released new quotes, most companies have not yet provided new ones; however, these new quotes are likely to be higher than those before the holiday. Exports have driven up the prices of domestic monoammonium phosphate, and also generated a certain amount of orders for enterprises. It is reported that before the Spring Festival, a large factory in Sichuan placed an order for 30,000 tons of 55% granular ammonium nitrate, at an FOB price of $440 per ton; the shipment was scheduled for late April to Brazil. By the end of the festival, another large factory in Anhui had orders ready for export, with shipments planned for late May. After the festival, traders are seeking suppliers of granular ammonium nitrate, and the scarcity of this product has forced some companies to allocate part of their production to it, which may result in a decrease in the production of powdered ammonium nitrate and industrial-grade ammonium nitrate. Additionally, domestic demand is being influenced by international market conditions, leading to changes in purchasing decisions. With spring plowing approaching, plans to purchase or restock ammonium nitrate have been accelerated, which provides some positive support for the domestic ammonium nitrate industry. As monoammonium phosphate producers successively release new quotes and start accepting new orders, and as transportation gradually gets back on track, downstream procurement activities are expected to increase. The ammonium phosphate plants, while expecting orders to come in before starting production, are for now keeping the volume of new orders under control. However, as transportation conditions improve and the amount of goods awaiting shipment decreases, these companies will begin to accept new orders. At present, there are enough pending orders for these companies until mid-to-late March. Additionally, demand for granular ammonium phosphate remains high at the moment, so these companies are not facing much pressure in the short term. In 2020, companies had fewer maintenance periods, so even if a crisis arose in the market later on, they faced little pressure; as a result, some companies would reduce production or shut down operations for maintenance. The market conditions for raw materials remain favorable; sulfur prices continued to rise after the holiday. Port holders are confident in sulfur’s prospects and continue to drive up its price. At present, the price of granular sulfur at the Yangtze River port has increased by 180 yuan, reaching 1,550 yuan, while the prices at the Puguang Wanzhou port and the Dazhou plant have risen to 1,360 yuan and 1,180 yuan respectively. It seems that domestic sulfur prices will continue to rise next Tuesday as well. In summary, factors related to the supply, demand, and prices of raw materials for monoammonium phosphate are generally favorable for it, and it is expected that prices of monoammonium phosphate will continue to rise. (Zhao Hongye)