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Nitrogen and potassium both see growth, while diammonium nitrate lags behind. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: April 25, 2021. Clicks: 7. The intensity of the price competition in the spring market has not yet subsided, and urea prices began to rise due to manufacturers’ hype surrounding pricing strategies. The increase in certain industrial demands further fueled this trend. However, the gradual resumption of production by domestic factories and relatively weak agricultural demand limited the extent of these price increases. Regarding potassium fertilizers, as the negotiations for large-scale contracts for potassium chloride reached a deadlock, the market began to speculate about potential supply shortages in the future. Prices for both imported and domestically produced potassium fertilizers kept rising steadily, and potassium sulfate also saw its prices increase due to the rising cost of raw materials, although the quality of high-end products was not that good. Anyway, both nitrogen and potassium prices are on the rise. Diammonium fertilizers are not only unpopular in the spring market, with their wholesale prices continuing to drop, but sales in the summer market have also hit a deadlock; even the offer of advance payment guarantees, which has not been seen for some time, has failed to inspire interest in the market. What exactly has happened to diammonium phosphate, which was once a leader driving growth across the industry but has now become a forgotten element in the fertilizer market? Currently, the wholesale prices of diammonium phosphate in the domestic market have dropped significantly. Taking the Northeast region as an example, the wholesale price of 64% diammonium phosphate has fallen from 3,300–3,400 yuan per ton at the beginning of March to 2,900–3,100 yuan per ton at present, with a maximum drop of 500 yuan. Such a decline reflects the urgency among downstream distributors to sell their stock as well as their pessimistic outlook regarding future demand for diammonium phosphate. Compared to urea, which has demand throughout the year, diammonium phosphate exhibits a more pronounced seasonal pattern. In the domestic market, the peak demand for diammonium phosphate occurs in spring and autumn; we are currently in a period when demand is gradually declining in spring. To avoid inventory buildup and reduce financial pressure, it is inevitable for downstream distributors to sell off their stock of diammonium phosphate. Domestic demand in autumn will not start until the end of July at the earliest, and this represents the longest sales slump for diammonium nitrate throughout the year. How will companies adjust their prices? When downstream distributors will enter the market to stock up for the autumn season has become a new focus in the market. Adjustments to corporate quotes are inseparable from the supply and demand dynamics in the market. With the domestic market in a downturn, diammonium fertilizer manufacturers naturally shifted their focus to international markets. The huge market demand in countries such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh has long piqued the interest of Chinese companies. But as established players in the international market, these three countries, in an effort to keep the prices of diammonium phosphate low, delay their purchases until April, even when their domestic stock levels fall below the critical threshold. Fortunately, the supply of diammonium phosphate in the international market is limited, and the FOB price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China remains stable at $535–540 per ton. The combination of high prices and good sales volumes at the export level has undoubtedly enabled diammonium phosphate manufacturers to reap huge profits. Considering that most of these companies carry out maintenance and repairs around May, the overall supply pressure on diammonium phosphate factories is low, which means that prices in the domestic market will remain high in the short term. The price of sulfur continues to rise; currently, the price of granular sulfur at the Yangtze River port is around 1,450 yuan, while the price at the Puguang Wanzhou port has risen to 1,420 yuan. These prices are expected to remain high in the short term. Regarding liquid ammonia, although production has increased recently, in regions such as Hubei, which are the main producers of diammonium compounds, the prevailing ex-plant price remains at a high level of 3600–3650 yuan. The high prices of raw materials keep the production costs of diammonium phosphate at a high level. However, there is still a gap between these costs and the prices at which it is sold domestically and internationally; in other words, diammonium phosphate manufacturers still have room to reduce their prices. In summary, the domestic market has entered a off-season, while diammonium fertilizer producers are seeing gains in both price and volume in the international market, with no supply pressures at present. It is unlikely that domestic prices at most factories will decline, and waiting for the right time is still necessary for autumn stockpiling. (Rong Guangwen)