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Editor’s Note: To support spring plowing activities and serve the agricultural supplies market, our newspaper is launching the “Spring Plowing Market Outlook” section starting today. The section is divided into a Products section and a Regional section: the Products section focuses on the supply and demand as well as price trends of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides, providing insights into the market ； The regional section focuses on the progress of spring plowing and supply guarantee measures in various regions, giving a voice to those on the front lines. The column aims to disseminate practical information within the industry, ensure the smooth progress of spring plowing, and jointly safeguard food security. At present, preparations for spring plowing are being carried out gradually from south to north. Reporters learned that this year, the demand for nitrogen fertilizers during the spring plowing season remains roughly the same as last year. Production enterprises are operating at full capacity to ensure stable output and supply. Coupled with the release of urea from winter stockpiles, the overall supply is abundant, and the market is functioning in a rational and orderly manner. Although there are slight variations across the seven major regions in terms of the nitrogen fertilizer market, prices have generally remained stable, providing solid support in terms of agricultural inputs for spring plowing and food security. Enterprises are operating at full capacity to ensure supply. “Since the beginning of this year, domestic nitrogen fertilizer producers have, in accordance with **arrangements, kept their facilities running at maximum capacity. The utilization rate has remained relatively high. It is expected that during the spring plowing season in China, there will be a sufficient supply of nitrogen fertilizers, and no shortages are anticipated.” ”Gu Zongqin, president of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, emphasized. In terms of demand, according to estimates by the agricultural sector, the demand for nitrogen fertilizers during this year’s spring plowing season will reach 10.269 million tons, which is roughly the same as last year. In terms of supply, according to calculations by the Nitrogen Fertilizer Association, the projected urea output for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 is 37.475 million tons (in physical volume), representing a year-on-year increase of 2.436 million tons. Considering the export situation in the fourth quarter of 2025, the actual supply volume will increase by 338,000 tons. At present, nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers across the country are operating at full capacity to support agriculture, rural areas, and farmers through concrete actions. “Currently, the daily production of nitrogen fertilizers at Hubei Yihua is around 7,000 tons, with shipments amounting to about 8,000 tons. ”Chen Li, deputy general manager of Hubei Yihua Group, told reporters that the three companies under the group are making every effort to ensure supply. Among them, Xinjiang Yihua has suspended its melamine production facility, increasing urea output by 400 tons per day ； Neimongol Lianhua started operations 1 month earlier than in previous years, increasing urea supply by nearly 70,000 tons ； Xinjiang Tianyun has maintained continuous production, increasing the supply of nitrogen fertilizers by 100,000 tons compared to previous years. In addition, the group will gradually introduce 100,000 tons of urea held in national reserves and by enterprises into the market in the near future, while strictly enforcing price control measures. Yang Peng, manager of the Fertilizer Sales Company at Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd., said that currently, Hualu Hengsheng is relying on its two production bases in Dezhou and Jingzhou to manufacture products such as urea and ammonium sulfate, with a daily production capacity of over 15,000 tons. “We ensure the stable operation of the nitrogen fertilizer plant under high load through measures such as 24/7 continuous inspections. Additionally, agricultural markets are given priority in sales to meet the fertilizer needs of the surrounding areas ； At the same time, efforts will be made to enhance coordination between railways and dedicated highway routes, with a focus on ensuring smooth transport to key agricultural regions such as North China and Northeast China. This will enable “direct delivery from factories to fields” and fully support spring plowing activities. ”Yang Peng introduced, he said. The regional markets remain generally stable. Regionally, although there are some variations among the nitrogen fertilizer markets in the seven major regions of China, overall prices are expected to remain stable. “The total annual urea production capacity in the three eastern provinces and eastern Mongolia is 5.95 million tons. As of the end of February, the total volume of deliveries to this region was approximately 5.1 million tons, a slight decrease compared to the same period last year. Currently, local manufacturing enterprises are maintaining high-capacity production. In terms of demand, the total consumption of nitrogen fertilizers in the region is 7 million tons. By 2026, the planting area of field crops such as corn is expected to continue to increase, which will drive demand for agricultural urea up by about 200,000 tons. ”Liu Bo, manager of the nitrogen fertilizer product line at Heilongjiang Supply and Marketing Beifeng Agricultural Social Service Co., Ltd., analyzed that with the arrival of the peak season for spring plowing, the nitrogen fertilizer market will see strong demand as well as supply; it is expected that there will be a relatively ample supply of urea in small particle form, while the supply of urea in large particle form will be roughly in balance. Regarding the North China market, according to Hu Zhifeng, assistant general manager of China Coal Mengshan Energy Sales Co., Ltd., currently, the annual production capacity of urea in North China stands at 20.21 million tons. The daily output remains stable at 200,000–210,000 tons, while the industry’s operating rate has reached 89%, providing a solid foundation for market supply. In terms of demand, while the topdressing of wheat and the base fertilizer for corn generate the main demand for nitrogen fertilizer, the weak growth of wheat seedlings due to the flooding in autumn 2025 has further increased the demand for nitrogen fertilizer; it is expected that the peak demand will occur in March and April. “The annual urea production capacity in the East China region is 16.84 million tons, with a daily production of 54,000 tons, ensuring a strong supply capacity. In the first half of the year, there is a demand for fertilizers for spring plowing, with strong demand providing support; coupled with stable cost levels, the nitrogen fertilizer market is expected to remain stable. ”Analysed Chang Jinshuan, deputy manager of the Fertilizer Sales Company at Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Group Co., Ltd. “In the first half of the year, the supply of nitrogen fertilizers in Central China was 5.9 million tons, while the demand was 6.4 million tons; thus, supply and demand were roughly in balance. It is expected that nitrogen fertilizer prices will remain stable. ”Zhang Bingliang, manager of Hubei Sanning Agricultural Supplies Trading Co., Ltd., said. Regarding the South China market, according to Li Zhengxian, manager of the nitrogen fertilizer department at CNOOC Chemical’s South China sales branch, the scale of winter stockpiling in South China this year has increased slightly compared to the same period last year. The amount of fertilizer released into the market in the spring has also risen slightly, with the total supply amounting to 1.2 million tons. Affected by the high prices of phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, the demand for nitrogen fertilizers increased to around 1.16 million tons. Overall, the South China market remains in a state of basic balance, with the average wholesale price of nitrogen fertilizers expected to fluctuate within the range of 1,850 to 2,050 yuan. “Recently, following a wave of price increases in urea in the southwestern region, demand from industrial and agricultural sectors has slowed down, and a wait-and-see attitude has emerged among downstream users, resulting in a relatively stable market trend. ”Chen Yao, assistant general manager of Luzhou Jiuhe Chemical Co., Ltd., said. “From the perspective of the northwest region, as spring plowing season arrives, demand increases compared to the same period in previous years. However, with the current high daily production levels of nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers, along with support from the release of state reserves, it is expected that there will be an adequate supply of nitrogen fertilizers during the spring plowing season in the northwest region, and prices will fluctuate within the designated range on a temporary basis. ”Zhang Wenwu, the urea marketing director at Henan Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd., analyzed. Three distinct trends are evident. Compared with previous years, the nitrogen fertilizer market for spring plowing this year shows positive trends characterized by concentrated demand, rational and orderly behavior, as well as stable control both domestically and internationally. Policies and industry transformations have jointly contributed to a steady improvement in the market, ensuring an adequate supply of fertilizers for spring plowing. According to Yang Peng, the demand for nitrogen fertilizer during this year’s spring plowing season is more concentrated than in previous years. After the Spring Festival, there is a strong demand for wheat to regain its green color as well as for the production of compound fertilizer as base fertilizer, resulting in a dual peak in demand from both agricultural and industrial sectors and an increase in trading activity. At the same time, the nitrogen fertilizer market is more rational. Policies to stabilize prices and leading companies’ efforts to stabilize the market have yielded significant results: dealers stock up in a rational manner, farmers make purchases based on their needs, and market order is well maintained. Despite the disruptions caused by high international prices, the domestic market has managed to maintain price stability thanks to sufficient production capacity, strict regulation, and effective environmental protection measures, ensuring that fertilizers are available for spring plowing at reasonable prices. “This year, the nitrogen fertilizer market for spring plowing has seen three major positive shifts: a steady transition from previous ‘disorderly competition’ to ‘orderly collaboration’; a gradual shift from the industry-wide sense of ‘pessimism and uncertainty’ to a state of ‘having confidence’; and a complete transformation from ‘skepticism and doubt’ among market participants to ‘cooperation and support’. ”Chen Li pointed out that behind these three positive changes are not only the precise regulatory measures implemented by the government, but also the industry’s own efforts at transformation and upgrading. Chen Li further pointed out that the implementation of policies regulating nitrogen fertilizer exports in 2025 has laid a solid foundation for standardizing market order. Furthermore, the industry trend in nitrogen fertilizer production toward \"technology-driven innovation\" and a shift toward greener practices has led to strong demand for differentiated products, further fostering a consensus in the market and prompting companies and distributors to shift from skepticism to cooperation and support.