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This post was last edited by xiouxingzhe on 2026-6-23 15:25. Seven stages of chemical technology from concept to industrialization (Issue 16/100). Case study for the second stage: The “double-high” decision-making in the PPS project. Dear friends: Hello everyone! In the previous issue, we discussed several common pitfalls in the innovation incubation phase. In this edition today, we will use a real-world case to conclude the second phase: the decision-making process for the PPS project’s expansion from a thousand-ton pilot scale to a ten-thousand-ton scale. This is a fairly typical case of success for both scientific and commercial aspects: it is scientifically sound, and there is also potential in terms of business applications; both criteria were met. But the thinking, debates, and trade-offs involved in the process, I believe, are more valuable to share than the conclusions themselves. I. What is PPS and what was its development stage at that time? PPS, or polyphenylene sulfide, is a high-performance engineering plastic characterized by its resistance to high temperatures, corrosion, and good dimensional stability. It is used in fields such as electronics and electrical equipment, automotive parts, environmental filtration, and aerospace. When I started working in the PPS sector, imported products dominated the domestic market, with relatively high prices; as a result, end-users had a need for domestic alternatives. At that time, we had a pilot plant with a capacity of a thousand tons in operation, which had generated some data. This background has a special feature—it is not an idea that starts from scratch like many projects. There is already a set of operating devices in place, with real production data, products being sold on the market, and customer feedback. So when we enter the stage of innovation incubation, we have something to work with, rather than starting from scratch. But this specificity also raises a question: if devices are already in operation, why is proof still needed? Just expand it directly, isn’t that enough? This issue has also been raised within the team. What was gradually agreed upon by everyone later on was that the gap between the thousand-ton and ten-thousand-ton classes is not simply a matter of scaling up. Just because a system works at the thousand-ton level doesn’t mean it will necessarily work at the ten-thousand-ton level as well ； The cost structure at the thousand-ton level changes significantly when scaled up to the ten-thousand-ton level ； The market for 1,000-ton vessels is a stage for testing, while that for 10,000-ton vessels is a real competitive arena. Not a single step of the necessary reasoning can be omitted. II. Scientific justification: It is necessary but cannot be omitted. Based on the operational data from existing pilot-scale facilities, we conducted analyses for several key technical issues one by one. First, the amplification of the polymerization reaction. From kiloton-scale to ten-kiloton-scale, changes in the size of polymerization reactors lead to variations in the flow field, mixing efficiency, and heat removal capacity. Fortunately, we’re not starting from scratch—there is already a considerable amount of experimental data from the pilot plant, including the relationships between agitation power, heat transfer coefficients, the molecular weight distribution of the products, and operating parameters. Based on these data, we preliminarily conclude that scaling up to the ten-thousand-ton level is technically feasible. However, some redesign of the agitators and baffles is required; a simple geometric similarity scaling cannot be applied. Second, the improvement of supporting processes. The thousand-ton pilot plant encountered several issues during operation, such as salt recovery, solvent recovery, and the treatment of oligomers. These issues were temporarily set aside or dealt with in a rather rudimentary manner at that time. But to reach the 10,000-ton level, these supporting processes must be addressed systematically—not only due to environmental pressures, but also because they directly affect the economic viability of the entire process. If the solvent recovery rate does not improve, the solvent consumption per ton of product will significantly erode profits. We invested considerable effort in developing process plans for salt recovery, solvent recovery, and oligomer treatment, and identified technically feasible approaches. Third, the stability of product quality. Customers on a thousand-ton scale mainly conduct small-scale trials, and their requirements for quality consistency are relatively lower. However, for ten-thousand-ton projects, it deals with long-term orders from major clients, and the fluctuations between batches must be kept within a very narrow range. We analyzed the batch data from the pilot plant and preliminarily determined that by implementing stricter operational controls and online monitoring, the quality stability can be improved to the level required by the customers. There is an important principle in this reasoning process: do not skip the deduction step just because there is a pilot-scale basis available. Pilot plant data is the starting point for our demonstration, not the end point. New problems arising from scaling up – changes in the flow field, changes in heat removal capacity, and economic considerations across the entire process – still need to be analyzed. III. Business Case: Is there real potential for domestic substitution? Once the scientific justification is largely established, the business case is developed concurrently. In terms of the market, we investigated the demand and growth trends in several key downstream application areas. The demand for PPS in the electronics and electrical industry is on the rise, and the market for environmentally friendly filters is expanding. In some high-end sectors, imported products have long held a monopoly, leaving clear room for domestic substitution. The prices of imported products remain high; if domestic products can improve their quality and reduce costs, there is room for them to take their place. In terms of competition, there were not many 10,000-ton PPS production facilities in the country at that time, but several companies were working on developing such facilities. Our advantage is that we already have a thousand-ton-scale facility in operation; we’re not starting from scratch ； The disadvantages are that the brand, customer network, and experience in large-scale production are not yet sufficient. Time windows do exist, but they are not indefinite — if you don’t take action, your competitors will. Regarding cost-effectiveness, we have conducted preliminary calculations. By shifting from a thousand-ton scale to a ten-thousand-ton scale, the investment per ton decreases significantly, which is a benefit brought about by economies of scale. However, whether costs can be truly reduced still depends on several key factors: whether the yield can be maintained stable, whether the solvent recovery rate can be improved, and whether energy consumption can be brought down to a reasonable level. We conducted sensitivity analysis, and the conclusion is that if the yield can reach the high levels observed in pilot-scale plants, the economic viability is ensured ； If the yield drops to a relatively conservative level, the economic viability becomes challenging. There is still uncertainty involved, but this uncertainty can be verified and resolved during the technology development phase. In terms of strategic alignment, PPS represents an important step for the company to expand into downstream new materials. If it is successful, it will not only be valuable in itself but also promote coordination across related industrial chains. There is consensus on this within the company. IV. Comprehensive Decision-Making: How Go Was Developed – Both scientific and business arguments were taken into consideration, and the conclusion was that it is worth moving forward with this project. But moving forward does not mean rushing ahead with our eyes closed. When making decisions, we also discussed several key risk factors. One is the amplification effect. Although the scaling laws from thousands of tons to tens of thousands of tons have been derived, ultimate verification still relies on pilot-scale testing. This risk needs to be further reduced through phase three of technical research and development—particularly scaling experiments. The second is the competition window. There is market space, but competitors are also making moves. If the project progresses too slowly, the window may close. Third is resource allocation. At that time, the company was working on several projects simultaneously, and PPS required a large amount of capital and manpower. The decision to use Go means allocating resources away from other projects, which requires overall coordination. After discussing these issues, the decision record included several key points: the conclusions of the scientific analysis, the conclusions of the business analysis, the main risk factors, the implementation plan and prerequisites, as well as the participants in the decision-making process and the date. A practice that I emphasized repeatedly later on—documenting decision-making—was exactly what was done in the PPS project. It’s not just for formality’s sake; it allows us to look back in the future, when the project encounters difficulties, and see what decisions were made initially, what provisions were put in place, and what agreements were reached. V. The path after decision-making: After moving forward with Go, the PPS project entered its third phase – technology research and development. It mainly includes: systematic research on the reactor scaling laws (cold model experiments and simulations), development and validation of salt/solvent/oligomer recovery processes, continuous operation of the entire process and data collection, as well as data preparation for the preparation of the process package. Subsequently, the first batch of products from the 10,000-tonnage facility was produced, marking the completion of the transition in production capacity from 1,000 tons to 10,000 tons as well as the improvement of the manufacturing processes. Looking back at the role of the innovation incubation phase in this project, I think there are two key aspects. First, it transforms a “vague optimism” into a “well-founded judgment.” Before the demonstration, everyone thought it \"should be possible,\" but couldn’t explain why or how certain they were. After the argument, it is at least possible to clarify which bases are solid and which still need to be verified. Secondly, it provides a clear direction and target for subsequent technological research and development. The key uncertainties identified during the innovation incubation phase—amplification effect, yield stability, and solvent recovery—directly determine the focus of the experimental design in the third phase. It’s not just carrying out research and development in a general manner, but rather addressing these specific issues in a targeted way. VI. Preview of the Next Issue: Issue 17: Case from the Second Phase – Reflections on the Preliminary Decision-Making for the Shenhua Dow Yulin Coal Chemical Project. PPS is a case that achieved “double high” standards. But not all projects go smoothly like this. In the next issue, we will discuss a well-known project in this industry: the Shenhua Dow Yulin Coal Chemical Project. This project underwent ten years of deliberation and nine different plans, only to end with the partner withdrawing. Where is the problem? Which is more dangerous: an overly lengthy and insufficiently in-depth justification for the innovation incubation phase? To be continued in the next issue. Table of Contents link: Seven-Stage Model of Chemical Technology from Idea to Industrialization (Issue 100) – Table of Contents (updated in real time)