December 08: Views on various coke futures

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December 08: Various views on coke futures – GF Futures: The progress in reducing coke production capacity has further tightened the supply and demand for coke. In the spot market, as steel mills in Shandong and Hebei agreed to the latest price increase for coke, the eighth round of price hikes was implemented, resulting in an overall increase of 400 yuan per ton. Currently, the prevailing price for quasi-first-class wet quenching coke in the Shanxi region is around 2,050–2,180 yuan per ton. Spot prices at ports remain strong; low-priced resources are gradually leaving the market. As delivery dates for orders from some long-term contract holders approach, traders are inclined to gather coal at ports. Due to tightened coke supply in the main production areas, there are fewer resources available for sale, and the costs associated with gathering coal at ports are somewhat high. As a result, traders are cautious when making purchases. Currently, the prevailing spot price for grade A metallurgical coke at ports is 2350–2380 yuan per ton. The cost of Rizhao Quanyi warehouse receipts is 2,443 yuan per ton, with a futures premium of 139.5 yuan per ton; the premium ratio is 5.4%. On the demand side: the operating rate of blast furnaces remained roughly unchanged on a week-on-week basis this week. November remains a peak period for demand in the downstream sector, and it is expected that blast furnace operations will remain at high levels. Inventory: Inventory levels at coking plants are declining more slowly, while inventories at steel mills and ports are rising. The inventory of coke for the 230 sample companies was 56.37, a decrease of 3.98. The coke inventory at 110 sample steel mills was 468.83, an increase of 2.77. Coke port inventory at 240.5, up 4.5. Supply: Coking operations are down, and average daily production has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of the 230 sampled coking plants was 74.15%, down 1.83% compared to the previous week and up 1.08% on a year-on-year basis ； The average daily output is 66.34, a decrease of 1.64. 100 sample coking enterprises: capacity utilization at 80.54%, a decrease of 1.53% week-on-week ； Average daily output: 38.45, a decrease of 0.73 ； Affected by the arrival of environmental inspection teams, some coking enterprises in areas such as Changzhi and Lüliang in Shanxi have reduced their production by 30–50%, resulting in a slight decline in their operational rates compared to before. Meanwhile, capacity-reduction policies are still being implemented in regions such as Henan and Hebei, which continues to put pressure on the supply of coke. Profit: The average national profit per ton of coke was 534.53 yuan, showing a slight increase of 4.17 yuan compared to last week. View: There is an eighth round of price increases in the current spot market, but with the price at 2600 on the January contract, 13 rounds of price increases have already been accounted for. Although the tight inventory situation of coking coal in Shanxi remains unchanged, given the expected decline in demand for processed products during winter, further price increases are likely limited; thus, the view remains that coking coal prices will fluctuate at high levels.