The “deep-seated dilemma” of polysilicon remains unresolved

Thread Content

　　After nearly four months of continuous decline, polysilicon has made a comeback into the market spotlight, with both its stock price and futures experiencing sharp surges. On April 13, 2026, all polysilicon futures contracts hit their daily price limits. In the stock market, Daquan Energy, the leader in this sector, closed with a 7.93% increase, drawing significant attention from the market. However, industry experts generally believe that with an oversupply of polysilicon and high inventory levels, it is somewhat difficult to achieve a true turnaround. 　　As a benchmark for reducing competition in the photovoltaic industry, polysilicon prices showed strong performance in 2025: the price of the main contract rose from 30,400 yuan per ton in June of that year to 61,985 yuan per ton by December. However, by 2026, prices turned downward and did not start to recover until April 13. 　　Ji Yuanfei, an analyst at GF Futures Research Institute, pointed out that the main reason behind the volatile prices of polysilicon is an oversupply and high inventory levels. Market data shows that polysilicon inventory in China has been on the rise since 2026: it was around 302,000 tons at the beginning of January, rose to 341,000 tons at the beginning of February, and further increased to 348,000 tons at the beginning of March. According to Ji Yuanfei, although polysilicon production was not high in the first quarter, demand was even weaker. At the same time, the silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules sectors were mainly focused on clearing existing inventory, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, which made it difficult to reduce the inventory levels at the upstream stage. In a research report dated April 12, Zhongtai Futures emphasized that, given high inventory levels and weak domestic demand, overall demand for polysilicon will decline once the export rush comes to an end. The current prevailing trading logic is one of \"pessimistic industry expectations and collapsing spot prices.\" 　　Faced with the continuously worsening supply and demand situation, signals of adjustment have emerged on the supply side. On April 8, the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the “Silicon Industry Branch”) stated publicly that polysilicon production would decrease by 8% in April. News of reduced production has driven prices upward recently. 　　However, while the market agrees to a production cut in April, there is a general expectation that production may increase further thereafter. Hai Zheng Futures believes that \"companies with cost advantages have the potential to increase production.\" Ji Yuanfei believes that the reasons for increasing production include: the desire to maintain or increase market share, reducing production costs, and responding to policies aimed at cutting production capacity. 　　Regarding the future trends of polysilicon, Ji Yuanfei said that in the medium to long term, energy security and the increasing electricity demand driven by the development of AI are expected to boost demand for polysilicon, although no significant increase has been observed yet. In the short term, the oversupply and high inventory levels have not eased, and whether prices can stabilize or even rise depends on whether price drops will force a reduction in production or the clearance of excess capacity, or whether demand can grow further to help reduce inventory levels. The recent price increases are largely a correction by the market to its previously excessive pessimism. A genuine reversal in the industry’s fundamentals still awaits a substantial improvement in the supply-demand dynamics.