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In 2018, the slight increases in the chemical industry market were not enough to counteract the overall downward trend. The Chemical Price Index (CCPI) published by ChemSino Online (www.chemsino.com) closed at 4,637 points at the end of the year, down 12.0%. Among the 160 key products under tracking, 121 experienced a decline, accounting for 75.6% of the total number of products. Among them, the trend for polyurethane raw materials was the most sluggish. Data from previous years show that the MDI and TDI markets experienced a period of significant price increases, and in 2018, market prices remained at relatively high levels. Furthermore, the supply side of the MDI market has remained relatively ample. In August, Huntsman’s new plant in Caojing, Shanghai, with an annual production capacity of 240,000 tons, came online. At the same time, the volume of goods arriving at the port increased compared to the previous year. According to statistics, from January to November 2018, a total of 67,300 tons of MDI were imported into China, representing a growth of around 1.4% on a year-on-year basis. On the demand side, due to environmental concerns, demand from MDI end-users is weak, which results in low operating capacity for polyurethane production; as a result, there is an oversupply of MDI, the raw material, with its price falling by 57.9% during the year. Another raw material, TDI, also saw a decline, closing at 16,000 yuan per ton at the end of the year, a drop of 60.0%. Two significant downturns occurred in March-April and September-October. In September, shipments from countries such as South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and India arrived in large numbers, leading to a significant increase in market supply. It is worth noting that Wanhua Chemical’s new TDI plant came online at the end of the year, further increasing market supply. Below is the ranking of the top 20 items with the largest declines: Unit: yuan/ton, %
The prices of chemical products were exceptionally high in the first half of this year, and no one could identify the reason for this. Some suspected that environmental regulations were to blame, while others thought it was due to an increase in production activities downstream. However, the sudden drop in prices after the third quarter shows that market forces are playing a decisive role, and the era of exorbitant profits is essentially over.