Weak trading continues to drive down the PVC market

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The last edit to this post was made by Their crimes have finally come to light on 2015-7-29 at 17:21: Weak trading activity continues to drive down the PVC market. July 28, 2015. I. Market overview: There is no improvement in international crude oil prices; European and American crude oil futures have dropped to their lowest levels in four months. Commodity prices continue to fall, and the spot PVC market remains on a downward trend. Although the price of calcium carbide, a key input for PVC production, has risen continuously, the PVC market is still significantly affected by overall commodity trends, with prices remaining in a downward trajectory. II. Upstream raw materials: The Asian ethylene market remained stable on Monday, but it continued to show weakness overall. CFR Northeast Asia remained stable at $1,174.5–$1,176.5 per ton, while CFR Southeast Asia stayed steady at $1,099.5–$1,101.5 per ton. Recently, the supply of calcium carbide has been tight, driving prices upward, forcing downstream PVC manufacturers to raise their prices in turn to secure supplies. The short-term trend of following price increases will continue, and the overall price level will rise. III. Industry Updates: Today, the pricing of PVC manufacturers using the calcium carbide method in China continued to decline. The ex-plant prices set by these companies tended to be lower, reflecting a pessimistic outlook for future market conditions. Type 5 ordinary calcium carbide material: the prevailing ex-factory price in the areas surrounding Inner Mongolia is 5,100–5,200 yuan per ton ； The mainstream acceptance price in Shandong region is 5,400–5,500 yuan per ton at the factory exit ； The mainstream ex-factory price in Hebei region is 5,280–5,450 yuan per ton on credit ； In the Shanxi region, the standard ex-factory price is 5,300–5,400 yuan per ton, payable upon acceptance. Quotations for PVC manufacturers using the ethylene process remain stable. In North China, Qilu Petrochemical, Tianjin Dagu, and LG Dagu offer products at 5550–5700 yuan per ton at the factory gate, while in East China, the prices of major suppliers range from 5850–5950 yuan per ton; discounts are available for large orders. Formosa Plastics’ price for August, on a USD basis, remains steady at 860 USD per ton CFR the main ports in China. IV. Market Trends: Domestic PVC market price table. Unit: yuan/ton. Product models: East China – price change; South China – price change; North China – price change. Calcium carbide material: SG-55, price range 30,000–54,000 yuan/ton; 54,000–55,000 yuan/ton; 52,500–53,500 yuan/ton. Ethylene-based material: 10,000 yuan/ton; 58,000–59,000 yuan/ton; 58,000–59,000 yuan/ton; 55,600–56,600 yuan/ton. The prevailing price for PVC in East China is 53,000–54,000 yuan/ton. Changzhou Yihua: 5300, Junzheng: 5330, Shengxiong and Inlite: 5360. Shanghai Tianneng Type 5: 5360, Type 8: 5560. Hangzhou Zhongtai 5420, Sanlian 5300 for pick-up, Tianchen Type 5 5390-5420, Type 8 5600-5630. Ethylene material: 5800-5900. In the North China PVC market, at Qilu Chemical Industry City, the price for Qilu S700 type is 5700; the price for 1000 units is 5560, with pickup available in person. Calcium carbide material 5280-5320 to be delivered. Delivered to Linyi area from 5300-5380. Delivered to Hebei 5250-5300. Pickup available at warehouse 5280-5320 in Tianjin area; for various models in Tianjin’s Dagu and LG locations, pickup is available at 5580-5700. The mainstream price for PVC in South China is 5400–5500; Beiyuan’s price is 5450, Zhongtai’s price is also 5450, Yihua’s price is 5450, Junzheng’s price is 5450, Yanhu’s price is 5420, Dongxing’s price is 5400, Tianhu’s price is 5460, Shengxiong’s price is 5450, Tieneng/Tianchen’s price is 5480, and Sanlian San’s price is 5580. Dagu 1000 is at 5780. V. In terms of market trends, rising Iraqi exports and an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States indicate that the global crude oil market remains in a situation of supply exceeding demand. Crude oil prices continue to decline, while PVC spot prices stay low due to significant pressure on the market. Affected by the spot market, the near-term price of Guangsu PVC opened down significantly, while the prices for longer-term contracts showed little variation. By the close, the price of calcium carbide-based product in South China for July was 5,480, down by 140 ； East China closed at 5,380, down 80; the ethylene-based method closed at 5,780, down 50. Fundamental spot market prices continue to fall; there is no improvement in end-demand, and the market continues to sell at reduced prices. It is expected that the price of PVC will remain in a volatile range after the decline, with no significant improvement expected in the short term. VI. Future outlook: The domestic PVC market is expected to experience a slight decline today. Trading activity is relatively weak, demand is low, and merchants lack confidence. Suppliers continue to offer discounts when selling their products. Although the price of calcium carbide upstream is rising, the spot market is significantly influenced by commodity prices. The market is expected to remain in a pattern of fluctuations as it seeks a bottom in the short term.