A rebound in crude oil prices is no easy task; unfortunately, oversupply has become the norm

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In the first three quarters, the crude oil market remained overall supply-heavy, and the imbalance between supply and demand determined low prices for oil over the long term. Meanwhile, the global economy is performing poorly, with a sharp decline in China’s real economy and several major shocks in financial markets, prompting concerns among global investors. For the future of the crude oil market, factors such as the traditional off-season for consumption, the possibility of reduced shale oil production, the competition among oil-producing countries for market share, and the OPEC meeting at the end of the year will all be key determinants of oil price trends in the coming period. However, given the current situation, Wall Street investment banks remain very cautious about future oil prices; although they hold a slightly bullish outlook, the extent of that optimism is still relatively limited. In the coming period, international oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a low range, with prices likely to remain between $40 and $65 for at least until 2016. Can oil prices recover fully in the future? Whether there will be a large-scale disruption in supply and whether the global economy can recover fully will be key factors determining future oil prices.