Crude oil prices drop again; a reduction in the pricing limits for refined oil products is now a certainty, with the adjustment taking effect on November 3rd

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Recently, amid negative news dominating the market, crude oil prices have remained in a downward trend, which in turn caused the rate of change to drop into negative territory. Recently, OPEC has continued to maintain high production levels, while U.S. crude oil inventories have also increased significantly ； Moreover, major economies such as China, the United States, and Japan continued to implement monetary easing policies, which drove up the US dollar index and exerted downward pressure on oil prices. As a result, international crude oil prices kept fluctuating downward. Under these influences, the change rate of crude oil during this pricing period remained negative, and this negative trend is intensifying further. According to Zhuochuang’s price adjustment model, as of the close on October 26th, the change rate for crude oil during the 5th working day was -4.10%, which corresponds to a reduction of 110 yuan per ton. The price adjustment period will begin at 24:00 on November 3rd. Overall, given the lack of signs of improvement in fundamental conditions, international crude oil prices are likely to remain in a pattern of fluctuating downward in the short term. Therefore, in this round of adjustments to refined oil prices, a reduction in price caps is highly likely, and both wholesale and retail prices will once again enter a downward trend. According to industry insiders, affected by various factors, European and American crude oil futures have shown a downward trend amid fluctuations during this pricing period. Meanwhile, according to the price adjustment models used by market institutions, if crude oil futures continue to show a downward trend this week, the rate of change in the future will remain negative and continue to decline. Therefore, the cut window may open on November 3, at which time domestic refined oil prices will see their tenth reduction this year. According to analysis, the previously weak volume in wholesale shipments has led to a serious shortfall in sales progress at present, increasing sales pressure; as a result, promotional efforts are likely to intensify. At the same time, influenced by policy factors as well as supply and demand dynamics, wholesale sales of diesel are expected to continue on a downward trend in the latter part of the month. Traders will maintain reasonable inventory levels to reduce risks, resulting in low transaction volumes in the market. Since the start of this pricing period, the international crude oil market has shown a persistent downward trend, which has kept the rate of change on a declining trajectory, with expectations of price drops continuing to prevail in the market. With no positive news to boost prices, this round of adjustments to domestic refined oil prices is likely to see a continuation of the downward trend.