Zhongtuo Boye: Oil prices surged sharply due to the closure of Libyan ports

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Due to the closure of Libya’s crude oil loading ports, oil prices have risen sharply. The previous high for CNPC was 2,293. The biggest daily fluctuation yesterday was 5.22%. Furthermore, OPEC’s decision to set a lower floor for oil prices has also had a significant impact on rising oil prices. The evening EIA crude oil inventory data will be released; during the Asian trading session, it is advisable to wait and observe before taking any actions based on the evening’s data. 【Fundamental Analysis】: API data released in the early morning showed that inventory levels increased again. This time, 2.8 million barrels are added, but it is a decrease compared to last week. This is the fifth consecutive week that crude oil inventories are increasing. Based on the results from API data, it is expected that the evening EIA data will be added again as well. If the inventory quantity is increased, the quote will remain marked with *. On the logistics front, Libya closed the export terminal at its eastern port of Zueitina on Tuesday, stating that crude oil loading was affected by uncontrollable factors. Traders said that crude oil exports from this port had been disrupted since last Sunday and were halted this week. It is reported that the port was previously closed for four months due to local conflicts, and it only reopened at the beginning of October; once open, it helped increase Libya’s crude oil exports by about 100,000 barrels per day last month. Furthermore, the strike by Brazilian oil workers also helped boost oil prices. Data shows that the strike plan by Brazilian oil workers has now expanded to 43 oil drilling sites. According to a draft of OPEC’s Long-Term Strategy (LTS) released by foreign media on Monday (November 2), low oil prices are causing growing distress among OPEC member countries, which are debating whether it is necessary to support a reasonable oil price level and increase revenues, but disagreements are clearly intensifying. The draft OPEC long-term strategy statement includes the views of Iran, Algeria, and Iraq; Iran and Algeria advocate for measures to support oil prices, such as setting a price target or floor, and restoring the OPEC quota system. The statement also noted that these discrepancies in short-term policies served as a warning to OPEC to update its long-term strategies promptly, and that such discrepancies undermined the constructive atmosphere at the OPEC ministers’ meeting on production policies held on December 4. Key data to watch today: 21:15 – United States ADP employment figures for October (in thousands); 21:30 – United States trade balance for September (in billion dollars); 22:45 – Final Markit services PMI for October in the United States; 23:00 – United States ISM non-manufacturing PMI for October; 23:30 – EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 30 in the United States. [Technical analysis]: On the daily chart, the MACD has formed another golden cross at the 0 axis level, while the KDJ indicator continues to show an upward trend. In the future, crude oil prices will continue to show an upward trend. On the hourly chart, the price reached a high of 2293 yesterday, after which it declined under downward pressure. The current quote is operating above the trend line. The MACD target may form a death cross, as its momentum is gradually weakening. The KDJ target has now formed a death cross at the 80 level. The probability of a callback is relatively high. Zhongtuo Boye Group -- Latest updates on international crude oil price trends www.zgztby.com