Olefin production from methanol and olefin production from naphtha cracking

I have nothing to do, so I’m here to discuss this topic; everyone is welcome to share their opinions: 1. Current cost situation: With Brent Oil at $34/bbl, USA NG at $2.2/MMBTU, and ME ethane at $1.75/MMBTU (we’re only discussing the **overall price levels, not the raw material costs for individual plants), the cost of olefins in China’s coastal MTO plants is more than 3 times higher than that in the US/ME region, and it’s more than twice as high as the cost in China’s coastal naphtha cracking plants； The CTO olefin costs in inland China may be slightly lower than those of MTO plants along the coast, but due to the huge investment requirements and long payback periods, the prospects for these projects are uncertain. 2. Is MTO/CTO necessary? 1) It was meaningful in China, for a certain period of history! MTO/CTO can serve as a complement to the petrochemical industry, providing an additional option for the production of petrochemical products. Given China’s characteristic of having little oil and gas but abundant coal, efforts must be focused on the utilization of coal. However, I believe that these efforts are excessive and come at a high cost! 2) The rapid development of MTO/CTO has, on the one hand, imposed a heavy environmental burden and debt risks, but on the other hand it has objectively promoted the advancement of technology in China’s petrochemical industry. It has served as a testing ground for many process and equipment technologies around the world, and has also helped to train numerous skilled workers in this industry in China. Everyone can discuss this: weigh the pros and cons, and figure out whether we gain more or lose more 3) The market is far smarter than humans; oil and gas in the Middle East and the United States are so cheap, yet there isn’t a single MTO plant (BASF claimed it would build an MTP in the U.S., but it seems that plan has been put on hold as well). 3. The prospects for MTO: I have little confidence in another sharp rise in oil prices (unless extreme circumstances or war occur), so I am also pessimistic about the prospects for MTO/CTO. Under the current conditions in the Chinese market, as long as any industry is overheating or experiencing excess capacity, one should not expect good prospects for it. If there is any so-called prospect, it is merely sustained by overextending the future of us all and increasing societal costs. As for a specific company, there might be those that manage to survive fairly well – perhaps they have inexpensive raw materials, or strong technical capabilities and accumulated experience – but it always takes a lot of time and money to address various practical issues such as carbon emissions, water consumption, and wastewater treatment... After being in business for so long, one day it’s necessary to pay the price for all that. Welcome everyone to continue the discussion, and happy New Year to all!

Working on duty during the New Year is quite boring; here’s my opinion. We are a set of MTP units, with relatively lower investment compared to MTO. Under the current circumstances, energy consumption is relatively high – that’s a fact. But what really matters is whether the operation of the device can be profitable. The price of raw material methanol, as well as the price of naphtha and the price of the product propylene, along with the price of aromatics, determine whether the plant is profitable or not. Currently, naphtha is relatively cheap, and the price of propylene is also low; as long as the quality of the aromatic compounds produced meets the required standards, the plant can still earn some profit from its operations. Moreover, I don’t think the price of propylene will remain this low forever.

MTO is currently in a bubble state

The characteristics of our country’s energy resources are \"low oil reserves,\" \"abundant coal,\" and \"limited gas reserves.\" These characteristics determine its long-term prospects. Even though olefin production via the oil route is competitive, it will eventually run out! Coal, on the other hand, has relatively abundant reserves; producing olefins from coal via methanol remains competitive in the long term.

Brother, water from afar cannot quench thirst nearby. In the short to medium term, MTOs are already almost overused. . .

It’s not possible in the near future! It is mainly influenced by the international economic situation; a long-term perspective must be adopted, unless olefins are not to be produced!

Over the past decade or so, the development of the coal chemical industry has been completely uncontrolled and disorderly, resulting in a serious surplus of products at present. It has also had a significant impact on the environment and resources; overall, it seems that the benefits do not outweigh the costs. Given our **resource endowments, it is both necessary and feasible to develop certain coal chemical industries in an orderly manner, as well as to invest in the development of new technologies in order to extend the coal chemical industry chain and serve as a useful supplement to the petrochemical industry. However, chaos resulting from uncontrolled investment and development can severely threaten the development of these industries. Regarding projects such as MTO, MTP, and coal-to-natural gas, which many companies are still eager to pursue, especially coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas initiatives that serve merely as means of energy conversion, there is really no need to promote them extensively; their prospects are also concerning. The ultimate goal in energy development is to improve the efficiency of energy utilization. The development goal of the coal chemical industry should be to produce chemicals, serving as a complement to the petrochemical industry; therefore, MTP and other approaches aimed at extending the coal chemical industry chain are promising and should be encouraged by the entire industry.

Current oil prices make methanol-based olefin production unviable. Moreover, producing methanol from coal and then converting it into olefins results in high pollution levels in China, which is not environmentally friendly.

In my opinion, neither MTO nor MTP is competitive from the perspective of current technology and market conditions. There are several reasons for this: 1. Oil prices continue to fall, and there is no support for them to rise again; it is highly unlikely that oil prices will return to levels above 80 within the next 5 years, even if the economy recovers. 2. The technology for converting methane into olefins is becoming increasingly mature; even if oil prices rise to a level higher than the cost of shale gas, this method of converting methane into olefins is likely to become the mainstream approach, as it offers advantages in terms of environmental impact and energy consumption compared to MTO and MTP processes. 3. Coal gasification appears to be more environmentally friendly than burning coal, but is that really the case?