Summary of urea market conditions across China in April 2016

Urea price trends across China Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2016-04-01 Clicks: 14 The overall urea market remains stable, with slight declines in premium prices in some areas. In the Shandong region, industrial orders account for a large proportion; the prevailing ex-factory price of urea remains stable at 1350–1400 yuan per ton. However, there has been a slight decrease in industrial orders at present, with some high-end prices dropping by 20 yuan ； In the Hebei region, although some large manufacturers have halted production for maintenance, there has been poor demand for products sent to other areas; as a result, manufacturers are receiving fewer new orders. The mainstream selling prices have dropped by 10 yuan, ranging from 1320 to 1350 yuan ； The Henan region relies mainly on orders placed externally, though there are few new orders; most orders come from the earlier stages of production. The standard factory price ranges from 1350 to 1390 yuan, and prices above this range have little practical significance ； Urea prices in other regions remain relatively stable, with no significant fluctuations in the market at present. Regarding ports, the arrival price of small-particle urea has risen slightly; the arrival price of urea at Yantai Port is around 1300 yuan, which is roughly equivalent to the exporter’s asking price of $220–223 per ton FOB. Reports suggest that some even ask $225 per ton FOB ； Inventory in Hong Kong decreased slightly compared to last week, at around 1.2–1.3 million tons, of which about 460,000 tons were large particles. Overall, although urea exports have shown some improvement, the ex-works price calculated based on the port arrival price remains lower than the domestic ex-works price. Consequently, its impact on stimulating the domestic market is quite limited. However, considering that there is still some support for industrial demand at present, the upcoming adjustment in electricity prices at the end of April, and the expected surge in fertilizer demand by month’s end, coupled with the fact that several small urea producers are currently undergoing maintenance shutdowns, the market is likely to experience only a modest slowdown in the near term, with limited room for price declines. 　　Regional market prices: Unit: yuan/ton (bolded values in the table refer to large-grain urea) http://www.nmtech.com.cn/sys/sec_zxwz.jpg

The upward trend in urea prices is slowing down; no positive developments in exports yet. Author/Source: China Agri-Inputs Media. Date: April 5, 2016. Page views: 1. The pace of increase in urea prices is decelerating. Since March, driven by growing demand from the agricultural sector and a rapid recovery in the operating rates of industrial fertilizer producers, urea prices have generally risen. In the downstream markets of East China and North China, supply has become scarce. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell their products, thereby driving up prices further. So far, urea quotes have risen by nearly 100 yuan per ton; only a few high-end quotes have seen a slight decrease of around 10 yuan per ton. Taking Shandong and Hebei as examples, urea manufacturers in Shandong are experiencing good sales. The mainstream ex-factory price has risen from 1,280 yuan per ton to 1,360–1,400 yuan per ton. In Hebei, there remains a sufficient number of outbound orders, and the mainstream ex-factory price has also increased to 1,350–1,380 yuan per ton. 　　Liu Wenqing, deputy general manager of Shandong Xianghe Agricultural Production Materials Co., Ltd., believes that the current price trend of urea will continue until mid-to-late April. He analyzed that on the one hand, demand is a factor at play: in the domestic urea market, agricultural fertilizer preparation continues, downstream demand for fertilizers is also strong, and industrial use of fertilizers is gradually increasing as well, with more industrial orders coming in, which has led to good sales in some areas ； On the other hand, due to the abolition of preferential electricity rates for fertilizer production on April 20, fertilizer costs have risen. Speculation regarding the electricity price adjustment has also directly spurred downstream buyers to make purchases, leading to price increases. He also told reporters, “Although current urea prices remain at a high level, the market is expected to trend downward steadily in the future. This price surge is merely a temporary spike. The high operating rates and overcapacity in the urea industry mean that there’s no possibility of sustained price increases. The urea market remains challenging.” ” 　　There is a disconnect between international and domestic prices. Domestic demand for urea is relatively strong, but there are no positive factors supporting exports. India’s next bidding process for urea will be postponed to mid-to-late April or early May. The reason for this delay is that the Indian Fertilizer Association has reported that domestic urea stocks exceed 1 million tons; in other words, inventory levels in India are high, which suggests that there won’t be any large-scale procurement bids in the near future. Meanwhile, China’s port inventory of both large- and small-grained urea exceeds 1.5 million tons, resulting in significant pressure on these inventories. Additionally, international urea prices continue to fall, which is unfavorable for China’s urea exports. The international market has very limited impact on domestic market conditions. 　　“Currently, there is low demand in the international market. The factory prices in China are high, while the prices at ports are low; in other words, the factory prices in China correspond to the sales prices at ports, and there is a significant difference between these two prices. As a result, domestic prices are not aligned with international prices. ”Wang Chenhui, deputy general manager of Qingdao Mingtai Trading Co., Ltd., analyzed that the current mainstream ex-factory price of urea in China is 1,300–1,350 yuan per ton. The offshore reference prices for urea in China are 207–217 US dollars per ton for small-grained urea, and 208–213 US dollars per ton for large-grained urea. Currently, there is strong demand in the domestic market, while there are no orders in the international market; this contrast between the two markets has led to higher prices in the domestic market, prompting goods at ports to be redirected back to the domestic market. Additionally, factors such as the postponement of bidding processes in India have further contributed to a decline in interest in the export market. 　　In Wang Chenhui’s view, the growth in the international market as a whole this year will not be significant. Export trade is rather passive, and prices in the international market are not in line with those in the domestic market. If domestic prices continue to rise, it will directly affect prices in the international market as well; China’s ex-ship reference price for urea will also continue to increase. Rising prices lead to lower purchase volumes, and thus the export market will not stimulate demand in the domestic market. At present, due to the large price gap, traders are unable to make purchases and can only wait for domestic and international prices to converge; it is expected that domestic prices will see a certain decline in mid-to-late April. 　　Manufacturers should increase joint inventory management and sales cooperation. In today’s market characterized by overcapacity, manufacturers are seeking ways to mitigate risks. Distributors, for their part, are extremely cautious when stocking up; they do so based on the demands of downstream retailers and refrain from making transactions lightly. Joint inventory management and sales cooperation is the most commonly adopted form of collaboration between both parties. Manufacturers choose strong sales performers in the market to partner with, hoping to help each other through these difficult times. 　　Liu Wenqing believes that currently the ex-plant price of urea is relatively high, while the price at which it is purchased by downstream users is low; as a result, distributors find themselves in a passive position with high levels of risk. Therefore, joint marketing by manufacturers is the best approach, as it allows them to share the market risks together. Due to financial constraints, small manufacturers do not have the ability to engage in joint marketing efforts with distributors. In such a challenging market environment, many distributors prefer to work with large enterprises and well-known brands ； Based on the distribution of market shares, manufacturers either eliminate some direct sales to end-users or consolidate their relationships with regular customers ； Or choose capable new customers with a willingness to act as distributors to collaborate on promoting the products. 　　The manufacturer produces the products, while the distributor manages the warehouse; by leveraging their respective strengths they work together to achieve stock accumulation, sharing benefits and bearing risks together. However, based on recent practices, some manufacturers are reluctant to engage in joint marketing, mainly because it is difficult to control the sales process carried out by distributors. Some dealers deliberately sell at low prices in order to increase sales, thereby shifting the risks associated with joint marketing to the manufacturers; dealers make their profits mainly from sales volume ； Some dealers even resort to tricks to deceive the manufacturers, reporting lower prices to them than the actual selling prices, which harms the interests of the manufacturers. Therefore, joint production and sales must be based on mutual trust between both parties. Manufacturers should not be concerned about personal gains or losses, so as to get through tough times together.

The outlook for urea prices remains promising. Author/Source: China Agri-Media. Date: 2016-04-05. Clicks: 1. The \"back-and-forth\" purchasing pattern still presents advantages. The urea market in our country has once again shown volatile trends, and the strong upward trend that began in mid-March has come to an end. In most areas, the increase in factory quotes for this round is roughly 80–100 yuan per ton. Companies in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other regions generally quote prices between 1,350 and 1,400 yuan per ton. Downstream distributors and compound fertilizer manufacturers are the main buyers, with some even taking the opportunity to stock up on fertilizers in anticipation of future market trends. Urea manufacturers, after accumulating enough orders at low prices, begin to raise prices, testing the tolerance of downstream buyers by restricting supply. It was not until late March, when the price of urea rose by more than 100 yuan per ton in many areas, that negative feedback began to emerge from the market, along with a tendency to wait and see. Thus, this current uptrend in urea prices has lasted only about two weeks. Apart from the industry’s concerns regarding the risks associated with continuous price hikes by manufacturers, the return flow of urea stored at ports in Yantai, Qingdao, and Qinhuangdao has also been a major factor undermining market stability. According to statistics, the domestic urea market has experienced two rounds of price fluctuations in less than two months since after the Spring Festival, from which it is easy to identify the characteristics of cyclical trading in urea. Since dealers will not hold large inventory at this stage, they mostly purchase and sell as needed. Demand for downstream restocking in April can still be expected. 　　Real estate drives industrial demand. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the domestic commercial housing market has been recovering, with a noticeable increase in transactions of both new and second-hand homes. In the first quarter of 2016, the domestic real estate market became extremely active. This has also shown industry insiders opportunities for a recovery in the plywood industry; as domestic plywood manufacturers resumed production one after another following the Spring Festival and their operation rates increased significantly, demand from the urea industry grew steadily. Supported by these positive factors, the price of urea in the main domestic production areas for rubber sheets remains relatively stable. Taking the Guangdong and Guangxi markets as examples: although the volume of urea deliveries was high in the first quarter, the market wholesale price was able to remain at 1,570–1,590 yuan per ton, thanks to the improved capacity of downstream industrial plate manufacturers to absorb this supply. The demand for urea-based industrial sheets in regions such as East China and North China is similar. Especially from the second half of last year through the Spring Festival this year, most domestic plywood manufacturers were either shut down or reduced production, which has led to a somewhat rebound in demand for plywood from downstream markets at present. Based on conservative estimates, demand in the domestic urea industry will remain high at least until April. 　　There is no need to integrate domestic and foreign trade for now. Since late last year, the domestic price of urea in China has remained decoupled from international prices. During that period, the FOB price of urea dropped to 190 dollars per ton. Even though the FOB price of small-grained urea has recently risen back to 205–210 dollars per ton, with large-grained urea having an FOB price of 220 dollars per ton, these prices still remain below those in the domestic market. The price difference between domestic and export sales can reach 60–80 yuan per ton. At present, domestic agricultural demand has not yet subsided, and the market is currently optimistic about the summer fertilizer market ； Industrial compound fertilizer enterprises continue to make purchases as needed ； The industrial adhesive sheet industry has created new demand drivers for the urea market. The above-mentioned demands are surely recognized as beneficial by industry professionals; perhaps it is for this reason that there have been no calls to use exports as a benchmark for price cuts. In fact, given the current situation of domestic demand, although there are periods of decline in demand from the agricultural sector, there is still support in the form of purchases by companies that produce compound fertilizers and rubber sheets. Optimistically speaking, the problem of oversupply in the domestic urea market during the first half of the year may have been resolved. At the very least, domestic producers won’t be exploited by foreign buyers; moreover, they can resist low-price exports, thereby forcing traders to raise prices. As for the current domestic selling price and export price, there is no need to consider aligning them for now. 　　In summary, the short-term demand for urea in our country will continue to provide price support. Dealers’ \"back-and-forth\" purchasing strategy aims to push manufacturers to reduce their export prices to more reasonable levels, thereby triggering a new wave of purchasing activity among downstream users. In the second quarter, the overall supply and demand situation for urea in the domestic market was fairly satisfactory; the emergence of a \"dark horse\" in the plywood industry helped to alleviate the urgent needs in the urea market for the time being. Meanwhile, most downstream distributors and compound fertilizer manufacturers adopt a demand-driven procurement approach for spring plowing; this not only allows them to negotiate prices but also ensures sustained favorable demand. In the short term, urea prices are expected to dip slightly, building momentum for another rebound.

Urea price trends across China Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2016-04-06 Clicks: 1 Sales in the urea market have slowed down slightly, with prices dropping slightly in some areas. The order volume for industrial compound fertilizer manufacturers in Shandong region is gradually decreasing, and there is little support from agricultural orders as well. The mainstream ex-factory prices have dropped by 30–50 yuan (per ton; the same applies below) to 1320–1350 yuan. In Linyi region, the purchase prices for compound fertilizers by manufacturers have fallen by 20–30 yuan compared to before the holiday, reaching 1340–1350 yuan ； In the Hebei region, sales are mainly directed to ports and local markets; new orders are weak, and the standard factory prices have dropped by 10-20 yuan, to between 1310-1330 yuan ； Henan-based manufacturers still primarily focus on outsourcing industrial orders. Currently, there are still a certain number of pending orders to be fulfilled. Newly concluded deals have not been very promising. The prevailing ex-factory prices have seen a slight decrease at the lower end, dropping by 20 yuan to range between 1,330 and 1,390 yuan ； In the Jiangsu and Anhui regions, there is some support in terms of fertilizer supply for summer farming needs, and the prevailing factory prices remain stable; however, a few manufacturers have reported that sales performance is not satisfactory. Internationally, Egypt’s MOPCO company said it sold a batch of 6,000 tons of large-grain urea to Keytrade this week; the goods were loaded in April and sent to Spain. MOPCO’s production lines No. 1 and No. 2 remain shut down, while Line No. 3, with an annual capacity of 650,000 tons, is operating at around 60% capacity. Overall, the operating rate of urea production in China remains stable at around 78%. With low domestic demand, urea prices are likely to fall in the short term. However, taking into account the positive impact of upcoming policy adjustments, the decline in prices is expected to be in the range of 20-40 points only. 　　Regional market prices: Unit: yuan/ton (bolded values in the table refer to large-grain urea) http://www.nmtech.com.cn/sys/sec_zxwz.jpg

How crazy is Urea City? Author/Source: China Agri-Materials Date: 2016-04-06 Clicks: 1 Those who are not familiar with it may not realize its depth, while those who are familiar might not see its simplicity. Disney’s 55th animated film, \"Zootopia,\" is such a masterpiece. Some say this animated film, which has received no negative reviews, boasts a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 100% – it’s definitely worth watching. Initially, the creators wanted to tell the story of \"Zootopia\" from Nick the fox’s point of view. But they later realized that the universally loved and innocent rabbit Judy would be a better choice as the main protagonist, allowing the story to be told from her perspective. Suddenly, the production team saw that this approach worked, and thus was born the \"Zootopia\" world that is now beloved by hundreds of millions of viewers. Initially, the fertilizer market planned to focus on compound fertilizers in order to tell stories about their use during spring plowing and sowing. But it was later found that the urea market, with its volatile trends, was a better candidate to play the leading role; thus, the story of rapid price increases started with the urea market. Suddenly, the fertilizer market realized that this approach worked, and that’s how we ended up with this \"crazy\" situation that has puzzled and criticized the market for around 20 days now. 　　We obtained some information and tried to explore the \"crazy\" world of certain urea manufacturers. A urea manufacturer in Henan produces medium-grained urea of high quality at competitive prices, which is quite popular in the market; its price was 1,260 yuan per ton in early March. Although sales progress has been a bit uneven, it remains relatively smooth. When news of rising prices spread from all directions, dealers received orders to stop collecting payments on a rare occasion. Such a situation of stopping payments due to rising market prices is now uncommon in the urea market; many manufacturers simply follow the trend and raise prices excessively. I still remember that strange manufacturer from Shandong from many years ago – they raised the price by 20 yuan per ton in the morning and by 30 yuan per ton in the afternoon, yet they still collected the payment! Do you still remember that strange Jiangsu-based manufacturer from many years ago? At 10 p.m., it sent a mass text message to all its distributors: “Starting tomorrow, the ex-factory price will be increased by 100 yuan per ton. This is to inform you accordingly.” ”And there’s no way they don’t collect payment! I still remember that manufacturer from Shaanxi who acted like a scoundrel years ago: they would accept payment at 1,650 yuan per ton, then at 1,700 yuan per ton, and even at 1,750 yuan per ton. They never said anything about raising the price of the goods sold at 1,650 yuan per ton, nor did they mention an increase in the price for those sold at 1,700 yuan per ton. If the price couldn’t go any higher than 1,750 yuan per ton, then there was a distinction in terms of delivery – the goods sold at 1,750 yuan per ton were delivered promptly ； Well, once this batch of goods has been shipped, those for which the payment is 1,700 yuan per ton can also gradually have their shipment numbers assigned ； 1,650 yuan per ton, and so on. However, this manufacturer is very considerate; for customers purchasing the goods at 1650 yuan per ton, if they are willing to pay an additional fee of 80-90 yuan per ton under various pretexts, the delivery will be done promptly, just like for anyone else. For those purchasing the goods at 1700 yuan per ton, if they are willing to pay an additional fee of 30-40 yuan per ton for similar reasons, the delivery will also be timely. Taking on too many orders at once and delaying payments – it’s understandable that people would understand this ； It’s hard to see the situation, so advance payments are understandable ； Besides, what kind of production capacity was there at that time? When the wind blows, the grass moves; suddenly there’s no payment required – it’s quite crazy when you think about it. 　　Praise should be given to this manufacturer in Henan – two days ago, all its distributors received phone calls informing them that, in order to maintain a long-term friendly cooperative relationship, the payment rate would be restored to 1,330 yuan per ton at the factory level. Several distributors said that this price was awkward and suggested waiting a few days before making any decisions. Initially, payments were stopped; now it’s just a suspension of payments. Can one really look straight at such a situation? Someone asked that since the rabbit and the fox have become a matched pair, from a biological perspective, what will their children, Judy the rabbit and Nick the fox, look like in the future? Dealers and urea manufacturers are supposed to be partners who work closely together; with the current situation of halted collections and delayed payments, what will the relationship between them be like in the future? What impact will this have on the urea market? 　　Let’s talk about another \"crazy\" story from a urea manufacturer in the northwest. In March, the price of large-grain urea shipped to a certain region was around 1,350 yuan per ton. Towards the middle of that month, signs of a price increase appeared, and the company wanted to arrange additional shipments. Usually, such requests were approved, but this time they were denied; which is understandable ； In the latter half of the month, urea prices rose sharply. We still wanted to add more shipments to our plan, but no approval was given. This is understandable; after all, why did you hesitate, wait, and procrastinate at the end of February instead of properly submitting your shipment plan for March? But the price for delivery to that area in April has been announced now – around 1,480 yuan per ton, an increase of about 130 yuan per ton. Are you that anxious, girl?! One act of recklessness, and the cost is around 130 yuan per ton! When we first met, Nick the Fox acted as if he had an overwhelming intelligence and could tease people at will. By the end of February, when discussing plans for March, he acted as if there was an abundance of goods so prices couldn’t go up, advising caution at all times. And now? All revolutionary friendships have been elevated, with an increase of around 130 yuan per ton; you decide for yourselves. True feelings need to be tempered – without hardship, how can there be sweetness? 　　Enough said. If I keep talking, I’ll be filled with tears. I’ll just say one thing: it’s extremely annoying—it might even make those manufacturers who can relate to this situation so mad that they’d want to hang me up and slap me ten times across the face. Even if you’re very angry, please still keep smiling... In February, China exported 637,000 tons of urea, a 55% decrease compared to the previous month. The average monthly price was $236.76 per ton (roughly 1,541 RMB per ton). It’s still at a ridiculously low level, ugh... The reason I bring up February’s exports is because we have to consider the roughly 1.4 million tons of urea stockpiled at various ports. Apparently, after the urea market went into overdrive, some of that stock began to flow back to certain ports. Such helplessness and futility, ugh... I’ll take 30 seconds here to feel sorry for them. 　　Touched, Nick the fox eventually returned sincerity and true feelings to Judy the rabbit. Some say that Nick, with his strong masculine appeal, is completely on par with Song Joong-ki. After about 20 days of the \"crazy\" events in Urea City, one still needs to learn from Judy the Rabbit’s honesty and strength, as well as Nick the Fox’s gentleness and delicacy. Even watching a movie can make the urea market, fertilizer market, and agricultural supplies market feel like a scene full of emotional turmoil; there’s always something to learn in this world! By the way, the reason there are no dogs in Zootopia is because dogs get abused!

Analysis of March data in the fertilizer industry: Urea prices rose by 2.5% Author/Source: Date: 2016-04-06 Clicks: 11 March data for the fertilizer industry: Average prices in March 2016: Urea at 1,356 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.0% on a year-on-year basis but an increase of 2.5% on a month-on-month basis; diammonium phosphate at 2,472 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.9% on a year-on-year basis but a decrease of 0.2% on a month-on-month basis; potassium chloride at 1,900 yuan/ton, with no change either on a year-on-year or month-on-month basis. 　　The urea price spread has widened. In March, the price difference between urea and 1.5× smokeless bituminous coal was 915 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan per ton on a year-on-year basis (+1.3%) and 32 yuan per ton on a month-on-month basis (+3.6%). In March, urea prices rose slightly, coal prices remained stable, and the price gap widened. Since the second half of 2015, urea prices have fallen by more than 25%; we expect these prices to start rising in 2016. It is advisable to pay attention to fertilizer companies that possess urea production capabilities, such as Yuntianhua, Hubei Yihua, and Liuguo Chemical. 　　The price gap for diammonium has narrowed. In March, the price gap between diammonium phosphate and phosphate rock was 1,826 yuan per ton, up by 115 yuan per ton on a year-on-year basis (+6.7%), but down by 5 yuan per ton on a month-on-month basis (-0.3%). In March, the price of diammonium phosphate declined slightly, while the price of phosphate rock remained stable on a month-on-month basis, resulting in a narrowing price gap. 　　The price gap for nitrogen fertilizers between domestic and international markets has widened on a month-on-month basis. In February 2016, the price difference between domestic and imported urea was -112 yuan/ton, a year-on-year narrowing of 279 yuan/ton and a month-on-month decrease of 125 yuan/ton. In March 2016, the price difference between domestic and international urea was -103 yuan per ton. This figure represents a year-on-year narrowing of 74 yuan per ton, but a month-on-month widening of 10 yuan per ton. Since July 2015, the gap between domestic and international urea prices has been continuously expanding; in September, it turned from negative to positive once again. In December, it began to shrink, and in March, there was a slight increase once more. 　　The price gap between domestic and international phosphate fertilizers is narrowing. In February 2016, the price difference between international and domestic prices for diammonium compounds was 76 yuan per ton; this difference decreased by 339 yuan per ton on a month-on-month basis, and by 755 yuan per ton on an annual basis. In March 2016, the price difference between domestic and international diammonium fertilizers was -41 yuan per ton, a decrease of 118 yuan per ton compared to the previous period. 　　Pay attention to the transformation and upgrading of the fertilizer industry. At present, the over-reliance on chemical fertilizers in agricultural development is leading to increasingly severe soil and environmental degradation, prompting the fertilizer industry to reach a turning point in its development. Document No. 1 issued by the central government explicitly calls for the widespread promotion of efficient slow- and controlled-release fertilizers in order to accelerate agricultural transformation. By the end of 2015, the demonstration and promotion of slow- and controlled-release fertilizers across the country had expanded to 25 provinces, with significant yield improvement effects. It is recommended to pay attention to leading companies in the field of new fertilizers such as Jinzhengda. 　　The fertilizer industry is assigned an “overweight” investment rating. Key events to watch in the future include: the impact of tariff policies, changes in price differences for fertilizer products and raw materials, and fertilizer export trends.

Spring plowing and preparation activities are underway in China; urea prices continue to rise. Author/Source: Date: 2016-04-06. Clicks: 29. (From March 28 to April 1), spring plowing and preparation efforts were in full swing across China, demand remained high, and as a result urea prices continued to increase. On April 4, China’s urea wholesale price index (CNPI) was 1,505.89 points, up 12.91 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a growth rate of 0.86% ； A decrease of 196.72 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 11.55% ； It dropped by 357.36 points from the base period, representing a decline of 19.18%. China’s urea retail price index (CNRI) stood at 1,606.03 points, up 6.59 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a growth rate of 0.41% ； A decrease of 185.73 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 10.37% ； It dropped by 298.93 points from the base period, representing a decline of 15.69%. http://img.yf116.cn/image/img/20160406/177326165259.jpg Supply situation: The operating rate of domestic urea manufacturers has dropped slightly to around 72%, while that of manufacturers using gas as a raw material is close to 60% ； From the perspective of the raw material market, the anthracite market remains stable overall. In some areas of Shanxi, the price of lump coal has dropped by 40–50 yuan per ton; transaction volume is average, agricultural demand has declined, and there is considerable downward pressure on prices in the short term. 　　Demand situation: In the domestic urea market, spring plowing activities are progressing from south to north; in most areas, there is strong enthusiasm among end-users for stockpiling fertilizers, industrial purchase orders remain steady, and sales in the market are performing well ； New orders are declining in some areas, with prices remaining stable on the surface but actually falling. 　　International market: Trading in the international urea market was weak, but prices of small-grain urea in key regions saw a slight increase. Among them, the FOB price of small-particle urea in the Baltic Sea increased by $2–$3 compared to the previous week, remaining at $183–$187 per ton ； The FOB price of small-grained urea in the Black Sea increased by 5–6 dollars per ton compared to the previous week, remaining at 195–200 dollars per ton ； The FOB price of small-grained urea in China dropped by $2/ton compared to the previous week, remaining at $210–215/ton. 　　Situation in various regions: Last week, prices in certain areas of the domestic urea market showed mixed trends, with increases prevailing. In regions such as Shanxi, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangdong, Sichuan, Yunnan, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, the wholesale and retail prices of urea have increased by 5–50 yuan per ton ； In Fujian and Shandong provinces, both the wholesale and retail prices of urea dropped by 15–20 yuan per ton, while prices remained stable in other regions. 　　Recently, the domestic demand for fertilizers used in industry and agriculture may slow down, leading to fewer new transactions. Meanwhile, there are no signs in the international market that would be favorable for the domestic market. It is anticipated that in the short term, higher-end prices in the urea market may decline, while lower-end prices will largely remain stable.

Urea price trends across China Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2016-04-07 Clicks: 5 Urea prices are somewhat weak, with slight declines in certain areas. In the Shandong region, industrial orders currently dominate the market, with the prevailing ex-factory price remaining stable at 1320–1350 yuan per ton (the same unit is used throughout) ； The urea market in Hebei region faces difficulties in logistics and distribution; sales are mainly aimed at the domestic market. Manufacturers are under increasing inventory pressure, with the prevailing ex-factory prices dropping by 10 yuan to range between 1300–1350 yuan ； Urea manufacturers in Henan province no longer have sufficient orders to fulfill; currently, new orders are scarce, and the mainstream factory prices have dropped by 30 yuan, ranging from 1330 to 1360 yuan ； Orders for industrial and agricultural products in Shanxi region have been postponed; the main factory prices have dropped by 30 yuan, ranging from 1250 to 1280 yuan ； Fertilizer preparation for agricultural use in Jiangsu region has slowed down slightly, with mainstream factory prices dropping by 30 yuan to 1380–1480 yuan ； Fertilizer preparation for agricultural use in the lower reaches of Heilongjiang Province has begun to pick up, with the local standard ex-factory price reaching 1,470–1,500 yuan; however, this is a provisional price. On the international front, sellers in the New Orleans area of the United States are testing the market; earlier this week they offered prices of $244–249 per short ton FOB, while the actual transaction prices were around $244 per short ton FOB ； Offers for urea shipments, including large-grain urea from China, at the end of April were as low as $220 per short ton FOB, but this has not generated much interest yet. Overall, the urea market is currently somewhat weak due to reduced demand from downstream agricultural and industrial sectors. However, given the expected increase in demand in the future, the decline in urea prices should be quite limited. 　　Regional market prices: Unit: yuan/ton (bolded values in the table refer to large-grain urea) http://www.nmtech.com.cn/sys/sec_zxwz.jpg

There are positive factors influencing the urea market; prices first declined before rising. Author/Source: China Business Network. Date: 2016-04-07. Clicks: 13. On April 6, domestic urea prices remained relatively stable, with slight declines in some areas, indicating a trend toward bottoming out. Although caution among industry players is on the rise, there is still confidence in the recent market environment, and the willingness to take advantage of opportunities to buy at low prices cannot be denied. Enterprises in North and East China have reduced prices moderately to attract customers, but agricultural demand in the north has declined as Qingming Festival passed. The demand from industrial plywood manufacturers and compound fertilizer producers provides short-term supportive momentum. At this time, Hebei quotes 1280-1290 yuan per ton ； For shipments from Shanxi, a separate quote is required; the price per ton at the dispatch station is below 1250 yuan/ton ； The purchase price in Linyi, Shandong has dropped to 1,350–1,360 yuan per ton. Some industry insiders consider it a technical adjustment; from a demand perspective, there is no sign of an oversupply situation at present. The only factor worth the market’s attention is the poor export situation for urea during the year, along with a significant disconnect between prices. Domestic urea prices are expected to first decline before rising. 　　Today’s market conditions for urea in certain regions: Urea producers in Shandong are offering prices of 1320–1360 yuan per ton, a slight decline. Demand from the agricultural sector is weakening, with transactions taking place at around 1330 yuan per ton. Local sales are moderate, while some of the urea is exported to areas such as the Northeast. Purchases by industrial compound fertilizer manufacturers within the province remain stable; the price at the factory is 1,300–1,310 yuan per ton, while the price in Linyi for delivery is 1,350–1,360 yuan per ton. 　　The ex-factory price of small-grain urea in Hebei is 1,290–1,300 yuan per ton, while the actual transaction price is 1,280–1,290 yuan per ton. Manufacturers are fulfilling existing orders; there is no significant pressure due to inventory issues, so they tend to maintain high prices. Demand is primarily from industries that use compound fertilizers and rubber sheet products; agricultural demand has declined. The wholesale price within the province is around 1,320 yuan per ton, with moderate sales volume. 　　Urea prices in Henan have seen a slight decline; the price for small-grained urea is 1,350–1,380 yuan per ton. Demand from downstream sectors is moderate. In the agricultural sector within the province, the price is 1,330–1,340 yuan per ton, while industrial use for compound fertilizers results in a price of around 1,320 yuan per ton. Order intake remains stable. The manufacturer’s ex-plant price is 1,300 yuan per ton. 　　Urea prices in Guangdong are on the rise; urea arriving from outside the province costs 1,570–1,580 yuan per ton. Demand from agriculture and industry remains stable, while rubber sheet manufacturers are increasing their production volume. The wholesale price of urea in the Guangzhou market is around 1,610 yuan per ton, with moderate sales volume. The wholesale price in Zhanjiang market is around 1,620 yuan per ton. 　　Urea prices in Anhui have seen a slight decline; the standard factory selling price is 1,360 yuan per ton, with the actual transaction price subject to negotiation. The factories still have orders from previous periods to fulfill. The local agricultural market is average, with industrial compound fertilizer manufacturers making moderate purchases. The wholesale price in the agricultural market is around 1,410 yuan per ton. 　　Urea prices in Jilin remain high; the process of preparing fertilizers for agriculture in the province is nearing completion. Overall, sales are progressing smoothly. The price of Changshan small-grain urea is 1,450 yuan per ton, while the actual selling price is 1,520 yuan per ton ； The price of urea in Tonghua is 1,500–1,550 yuan per ton. The price upon arrival for goods from other provinces is 1,450–1,480 yuan per ton, while the wholesale price in the market is 1,500–1,530 yuan per ton.

Urea price trends across China Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2016-04-08 Clicks: 3 New orders in the urea market are slowing down, with prices remaining stable but on a downward trend. Sales of urea in the Shandong region are fairly good; at present, orders come mainly from local industries. The standard ex-factory price remains stable at 1320–1350 yuan per ton. However, considering the purchase prices of 1340–1350 yuan offered by local compound fertilizer manufacturers, the actual ex-factory prices charged by some urea producers may already be below 1300 yuan ； Exports from the Henan region are facing difficulties, and the number of new orders has decreased significantly compared to before. The standard factory prices have dropped by 10 yuan, ranging from 1320 to 1360 yuan. The discount space available for transactions has increased slightly, with the factory price for industrial export orders being around 1280–1300 yuan ； The urea market in Hubei is performing fairly well; however, the prices for high-end grades have dropped by 50 yuan, to 1400–1450 yuan, while the typical selling price at the factory is 1380–1400 yuan. Internationally, India’s Ministry of Fertilizers has not yet approved new bids for urea imports, but bidding is still expected to take place by the end of April ； From April 2015 to March 2016, local urea production reached a record high of 24.5 million tons. India is considering reevaluating its policies regarding urea imports, but this is unlikely to happen before the general elections in India at the end of July. Overall, the international urea tender has not been issued yet, and the impact of exports on domestic prices has not been evident so far. The weak domestic market conditions may lead to further slight declines in urea prices, but considering factors such as future agricultural demand and electricity price adjustments, the decline will not be significant, remaining around 30 yuan. 　　Regional market prices: Unit: yuan/ton (bolded values in the table refer to large-grain urea) http://www.nmtech.com.cn/sys/sec_zxwz.jpg